AL MVP Debate: We Did This Two Years Ago
http://ppt.cc/DoV5
by Dave Cameron - September 21, 2012
While I wrote most of what I had to say about the AL MVP discussion a few
days ago, I do have one more question I want to ask – what’s so different
about Cabrera this season compared to 2010?
当我前几天写了AL MVP的文章 我想到一个问题
今年跟2010年的MVP竞争有什么不同?
Most of the case for Cabrera’s candidacy rests upon the idea that he’s
having an historic offensive performance, and that denying him the award
would be some kind of historical injustice. But, if we look at his 2012
season and his 2010 season side by side, can we really make the case that
this year is all that different from what he did two years ago?
大部分支持胖卡布的人说的理由是他有着史诗般的成绩
如果不给他MVP奖项 是某种历史上的不公平
但是 如果我们看他2012年跟2010年的成绩 我们真的能说他这两年有什么不同?
(译按:难道稳定也是种错误T_T)
Because he has almost identical amounts of plate appearances between the two
seasons, it’s easy enough to just compare raw totals side by side, so we’ll
start there.
因为他现在几乎跟两年前的打数一样 直接比较变得相当容易
Season PA 1B 2B 3B HR BB GDP
2010 648 96 45 1 38 89 17
2012 646 112 38 0 41 63 28
Cabrera has 16 more singles and three more home runs, but he has eight fewer
non-HR extra base hits, so the overall net in total bases is just +11. In
other words, while his batting average is slightly higher, he’s actually
hitting for slightly less power this year than he did two years ago, which
you can see in his seasonal rate statistics.
胖卡布多16只1B 3只HR 但是就扣除HR的长打来说 他还少了8只
所以垒打数来说只增加了11
换句话说 虽然他打击率增加了 但是他也比2年前降低了一些长打力
Season AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2010 0.328 0.420 0.622 0.429 169
2012 0.333 0.398 0.613 0.421 169
A five point increase in average and a nine point decrease in slugging are,
for all intents and purposes, a tie. There’s no real meaningful difference
in those numbers. The one area where there is a meaningful change is in his
walk rate, as Cabrera has drawn 26 fewer walks this year than he did in 2010,
which is the main driver of his 22 point drop in OBP. However, that’s
swallowed up almost entirely by the change in offensive run environments over
the last two years.
打击率增加0.005 长打率降低0.009 其他的其实差不了太多
只有一个地方是有明显的改变 "保送"
胖卡布目前比2010年少了26次保送 OBP下降0.022
And, just so you don’t think we’re obscuring the issue by only looking at “
sabermetric” stats like walks, doubles, and double plays grounded into, here
’s a comparison based on his “run production” stats.
然后不让你认为我们在模糊焦点 只是在看sabermetric的数据(BB,2B,GIDP....)
我们直接看打点的产量
Season Runs RBI
2010 111 126
2012 102 130
In reality, Cabrera’s 2010 and 2012 offensive performances are almost
exactly equal no matter what kinds of metrics you use. In terms of something
more accurate like batting runs above average, Cabrera was at +54.9 in 2010
and is at +54.3 this year. Even if you want to evaluate his performance
strictly by RBIs, there is essentially no difference between this year and
two years ago.
2010年跟2012年的成绩几乎相差不少 不管你用什么样的标准来评估
如果用batting runs above average(BRAA) 2010年是+54.9 2012年是+54.3
And yet, in that race, Cabrera finished a distant second in the MVP voting
behind Josh Hamilton. Hamilton, a center fielder who also had a tremendous
season, received 22 of the 28 first place votes that year despite the fact
that he only played in 133 games — 17 fewer than Cabrera — and had inferior
home run and RBI totals to Cabrera. However, voters decided that Hamilton’s
superior defensive value outweighed the extra quantity of playing time for
Cabrera, and gave him the award in a vote that wasn’t even close. And I don’
t recall much in the way of controversy surrounding that pick, as Hamilton
was pretty clearly the AL’s best player that year.
2010年胖卡布在MVP竞赛中输给了Josh Hamilton(在28个选票中获得22张第一)
虽然Josh Hamilton只出赛了133场(比胖卡布少17场)
然而投票者最后选择Josh Hamilton(他有非常棒的守备)
我其实不太记得当初争议的点 但是Josh Hamilton的确是那年美联最佳的球员
In reality, the only real differences between the 2010 and 2012 races are
Cabrera’s change in position — which WAR gives him credit for, by the way —
and the relative win-loss records of the teams on which the contenders play
for. Cabrera’s case might be billed as being about his amazing offensive
performance, but he had this same offensive performance in 2010, and there
wasn’t a strong push to give him the award then. A case for Cabrera as MVP
this year, but not two years ago, essentially rests on one of these three
arguments:
事实上2010跟2012的竞赛 只有"两点"差异
1.胖卡布换守备位置(WAR在守备位置上有给他补偿)
2.老虎球队的胜败纪录
他的确有非常棒的表现 但几乎跟2010年差不多 2010年他没得到MVP
如果他今年拿下MVP而不是两年前 基本上应该是这三个论点之一
1. Cabrera’s defensive value has dramatically increased due to his move to
third base, such that an equivalent offensive performance is now worthy of a
first place vote.
因为胖卡布移防3B 让他防守的价值急速上升
如此同等的进攻是值得投票员投给他MVP的
2. Cabrera’s individual value has dramatically increased because the Tigers
have a .530 winning percentage as a team this year, as opposed to the .500
winning percentage they had in 2010.
胖卡布个人价值上升是因为让老虎有.530的胜率 而不是两年前的.500
3. Trout’s 2012 season has been less valuable than Hamilton’s 2010 season,
so while Cabrera was beat out by a stronger contender two years ago, that
kind of candidate doesn’t exist this year.
Trout今年的表现比2010年Hamilton的表现还差 所以胖卡布可以击败Trout
You can’t make a case for Cabrera over Trout without leaning heavily on
several of those as foundational beliefs.
如果不是这三项基本的诉求 胖卡布不可能击败Trout
There’s actually some evidence supporting point #1, as Cabrera’s total
fielding rating compared to league average (UZR + Positional Adjustment) this
year is just -8.1 compared to the -17.5 he put up in 2010, so WAR is giving
him credit for an additional win of value with the glove because of the move
to third base and how he’s played there this year. So, that’s an argument
that actually has some teeth, but the problem is that you can’t
simultaneously lean on that piece of data as a pillar of your argument while
dismissing Trout’s value because of the unstable nature of single year
defensive performance. If you go with argument #1 as a pillar of Cabrera’s
foundation, you’re essentially also locking yourself out of #3, because any
consideration of defensive value will elevate Trout’s 2012 season over
Hamilton’s 2010. Point #1 and Point #3 are essentially mutually exclusive –
you can’t argue both at the same time.
如果是以第一点来说
根据UZR+ 胖卡布2010年是-17.5 今年则是-8.1 所以WAR已经调高他的价值
但是如果胖卡布已经调高价值 那你不得不看Trout的防守成绩
而如果你采论点一 那么论点三也是死路
因为任何的防守数据加上 都会让Trout的2012球季比Hamilton的2010还要有价值
那么论点一跟论点三都无用了~~
And point #2 is just kind of silly. The Tigers are on pace to finish with 86
wins and miss the playoffs, so it’s hard to see how that’s drastically
better than the 81 wins and no playoffs that they achieved two years ago,
especially considering that it’s easier to make the playoffs this year due
to the addition of the second wild card. In both 2010 and 2012, the Tigers
have the eighth best record in the American League. Basing his MVP case on
team performance just doesn’t really hold up to scrutiny.
关于论点二就有点.... 老虎这季正朝向86胜迈进 也可能不会进季后赛
很难看出跟两年前有什么样的不同
何况今年有两个外卡的机会 进季后赛比较容易一点
老虎大概在美联排名第8名
如果MVP是根据队伍表现 那么也不太会是他的
Again, as Paul said in his piece a few hours ago, none of this is meant to
disparage Miguel Cabrera. Winning the Triple Crown would be a pretty neat
historical accomplishment, and the fact that Cabrera has had so many seasons
at this level speaks to his amazing consistency. The unfortunate reality for
him, however, is that Josh Hamilton was clearly better in 2010, and Mike
Trout has been clearly better in 2012. Two years ago, Cabrera had this exact
same season, and everyone agreed that the guy doing it in center field was
more valuable. There’s no reason to change our minds two years later.
然而这些说法并不是贬低胖卡布
赢得三冠王是历史上伟大的成就 而且他已经有数个球季是有如此稳定的产出
但事实是2010年Hamilton比他好 而2012年Trout比他也好
两年之后胖卡布打出几乎相同的怪物成绩
但大家似乎同意如果是中外野手有这样的表现是更有价值的