The star-studdent department
Arizona Diamondbacks:
Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Archie Bradley, David Holmberg, Andrew Chafin
The Diamondbacks had the third and seventh overall picks in the 2011
draft, and they made them count when it came to arms. Bauer could be in
Arizona as early as this year, and while the high schooler Bradley will
certainly take longer, some feel he eclipses Bauer in terms of upside.
Skaggs was acquired in the Dan Haren trade and his stock exploded in 2011,
as he went from a projectable pitcher to one who is starting to tap his
potential, with some scouts believing he has a shot at becoming a true
ace. It's a big drop after the three, but Holmberg is a high-floor player
who should slot into any rotation, while Chafin is an intriguing pick from
last June who just needs to stay healthy.
Pittsburgh Pirates:
Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Luis Heredia, Kyle McPherson, Colton Cain
The point of scouting and player development is to find players with star
potential, and the Pirates have done just that. No. 1 pitchers are the
rarest of rare, and even prospects with the potential to be that are hard
to find, yet the Pirates have three of them in Cole, Taillon and Heredia.
Of course, having a top pick in each of the last two years helps. No three
players could play a bigger role in a hopeful turnaround for Pittsburgh,
but the risk is considerable. Heredia will be 17 years old nearly all
season, Taillon has less the 100 innings as a pro, and Cole was never able
to consistently translate his remarkable stuff into remarkable performance
at the college level.
Seattle Mariners:
Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, Victor Sanchez
When the Mariners traded Michael Pineda to the Yankees, they did so from a
position of strength, as not only do they have three elite pitching
prospects, two of them are close to the big leagues. Hultzen, the second
overall pick in the 2011 draft, is so advanced that a big league debut in
2012 is expected, while Paxton had a breakout year in 2011 and could also
be lined up for a September debut.
Walker is much further away and will be a 19-year-old in the Class A
California League this season, but he has better stuff than Hultzen or
Paxton. Ramirez is a back-end starter, and while few have heard of
Sanchez, he was one of the better international arms on the market last
summer.
Atlanta Braves:
Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Arodys Vizcaino, Sean Gilmartin, Zeke Spruill,
While the Braves have just three studs, it's a tribute to their trading
ability (Vizcaino came from Yankees in Javier Vazquez trade) as well as
their wide reach when it comes to international scouting, as Teheran is
from Colombia and Delgado was signed out of Panama. Don't worry about
Teheran's mediocre big league showing in 2011, as there were pitchers in
A-ball last year whom everyone got excited about who were older than him.
Teheran could be the team's top starter by 2013, with Delgado fitting
somewhere in the middle. As for Vizcaino, the glut of young pitching could
have him set in a bullpen role for now, but plenty of scouts still want to
see what he can do in a starting role.
The five prospects deep department
Oakland Athletics:
Jarrod Parker, A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Sonny Gray, Raul Alcantara
Here's how to do a rebuild the right way: Four of the five players here
were not in the organization on the final day of the 2011 season. The five
players are also spread out in terms of development, as Parker and Peacock
could get significant big league innings this year, while Alcantara will
simply be making his full-season debut.
That can be both a blessing and a curse, as while it hopefully creates a
consistent flow of talent, it makes lining up for a specific window of
contention a far greater challenge.
San Diego Padres:
Robbie Erlin, Joe Weiland, Casey Kelly, Joe Ross, Keyvius Sampson,
The Padres have the deepest system in the minor leagues, and it's not even
close. But much like the team's prospects on the positional side, there
are an incredible number of future big league arms, but the stars aren't
so easy to find.
Still, assurances can be as valuable as potential, and with Erlin, Kelly
and Weiland all ready for Triple-A, dividends are almost guaranteed at
this point.
Tampa Bay Rays:
Matt Moore, Taylor Guerrieri, Alex Torres, Alex Colome, Enny Romero
Without Matt Moore in their minor league system, which has an excellent
chance to be the case come Opening Day, the Rays don't make the list. It's
not that this isn't an impressive collection of power arms. It's that hard
throwers like Colome and Romero might just be starters in name only, as
their combination of shallow arsenals and inefficiency seem destined for
the bullpen.
Then again, considering the cornucopia of young starters Tampa has at the
big league level, you almost have to be a Moore-esque talent to avoid a
bullpen move.
Kansas City Royals:
Jason Adam, Chris Dwyer, John Lamb, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi
I wrote last week about the challenges the Royals will face in finding the
pitching they need to become playoff competitors.
The good news is that they have plenty of prospects, but the bad news is
that Odorizzi is the only player in the quintet who took a legitimate step
forward in 2011. The Royals need just a 40 percent hit rate from this list
to move into contention, but at a realistic rate of prospect attrition,
that's more difficult than it might seem.
The dream a little dream of me department
Toronto Blue Jays:
Daniel Norris, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, Adonys Cardona, Kevin Comer
To be clear, these are not Toronto's top five pitching prospects. Drew
Hutchinson belongs on the list, and Deck McGuire certainly deserves
consideration. The point is that the Blue Jays have amassed a collection
of young, high-ceiling arms that is the envy of baseball. Beyond these
five, Aaron Sanchez and Joe Musgrove could also belong here.
None of them can legally drink, none of them have tasted a full season of
professional baseball even, but all of them have star potential. Of
course, some of them just won't make it, and some of them will transition
to bullpen roles, but the Blue Jays are sitting back with seven lottery
tickets when most teams are happy to have just one prospect with the
upside of these guys.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16083
by Kevin Goldstein