Is this guy for real?
他是真货还是假货？
原文连结：http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/is-this-guy-for-real/
by Sal Baxamusa
July 14, 2008
The All-Star break is upon us, and if they haven't already, teams will be
re-evaluating their position relative to the league. Are they buyers? Are
they sellers?
全明星假期已经到了，每个球团将会（如果他们还没有开始的话）重新评估球队内各个位
置相对于联盟的强弱。他们应该开始兜售球员吗？还是他们应该借由交易来补强实力呢？
That decision depends partially on where you are in the standings, but also
on what you think your players will do in the coming months. Dumb teams will
assume that their players will put up similar numbers in the second half as
they did in the first half. But smart teams, of course, won't do that.
这个决定不只跟球队的战绩有一些关系，也和球队认为他们的球员在之后几个月内会表现
的怎样有关。白痴的球队会单纯得以为他们的球员会表现的跟上半季一样。而当然了，聪
明的球队不会这么做。
Why not? Because what a player has done this year is not his true talent
level. He could be significantly better or worse, or he may be playing up to
his true talent level. But performance data are just a sampling from a
player's true talent, and half a season really isn't enough information to
say Barry Zito is cooked or that Xavier Nady has become a star.
为什么他们不会这么做呢？因为一个球员到目前为止的表现并不一定是他真正的实力。他
可能有超水准的惊人表现或是超水准的摆烂演出，也可能只是展现出他真正的实力。但是
这些表现出来的东西只不过是他真正实力的随机取样而已，所以这半个球季并不足以证明
Barry Zito 鸟掉了，或者 Xavier Nady 已经成为一个明星球员了。
As usual, a player's true talent level, or what we expect his performance to
be going forward, can be determined by creating a projection utilizing all of
his performance data—this year's, last year's, and even the year before
that. And as I've focused on recently, the easiest way to do that is to run a
simple Marcel projection.
跟其他东西一样，球员真正的实力（或者可以称为我们对他未来表现的预测）是可以透过
所有关于他表现的资料（今年的资料，去年的资料，甚至是前年的资料）来进行推算的。
而达成这个目的最简单的方法（也是我最近在研究的方向）就是使用 Marcel 这个预测系
统。
Today, I'm going to give you the tools to do that for yourself—with a major
assist from Dave Studeman who helped me test and improve the initial
versions. You might use it for your fantasy team or just to see if your
favorite club should stick with a struggling player.
今天，我会把所有的工具都给你，然后你就可以自己来预测球员下半季的表现（我要特别
提一下，Dave Studeman 帮我测试以及修改最初的版本）。你可以用这些东西来该善你的
fantasy 球队，也可以用它们来看看你喜欢的球队是不是该继续相信那个成绩跌入谷底的
球员。
You can download a spreadsheet for pitchers here and for hitters here. Using
them is simple. Download and open the spreadsheet and find the "Paste" tab.
Enter your favorite player's name and his date of birth. Then, use our handy
search feature to find his THT player page. Copy the first block of stats
(this works best if you use Internet Explorer), all the way back to 2004
(which is as far as we go) and paste them in the appropriate place in the
"Paste" tab. The next tab, called "Quick-n-dirty Marcel hitting" (or
"Quick-n-dirty Marcel pitching") automatically computes that player's current
projection for the rest of the year and his projected 2008 totals.
你可以在 ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_pitching.xls 下载投手的试算表，而
在 ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_hitting.xls 可以下载打者的。使用方式很
简单。下载并打开试算表，你可以看到一个叫做“Paste”的分页。输入你想预测球员的名
字和出生日期。再用 http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php
找出那个球员的资料。然后把第一个表格内从 2004 年开始的资料（这是这个程式的限制
）贴到“Paste”分页内相对应的字段（建议使用 Internet Explorer）。而同时，另一个
叫做“Quick-n-dirty Marcel hitting”的分页（或是“Quick-n-dirty Marcel pitching
”）会自动推算出球员下半球季的表现和 2008 球季的整体成绩。
Marcel has a lot of caveats. Basically, Marcel only knows three things: a
player's stats, the stats of the rest of the league, and the player's age.
Marcel doesn't know anything about injuries, parks, minor leagues or platoon
splits. But by and large, this simple system isn't a whole lot worse than the
heavy hitters like CHONE or PECOTA or ZiPS. And there's a reason why I call
them "quick-n-dirty." The spreadsheet I made is a pretty simplistic tool. It
doesn't forecast RBI or runs—sorry fantasy gurus—and the estimated playing
time is based purely on extrapolation. But it does do a pretty good job at
most of the other stuff.
Marcel 预测系统有很多要注意的地方。基本上，Marcel 只考虑三件事：这个球员表现出
来的成绩，整个联盟的平均成绩，以及球员的年纪。Marcel 完全不考虑伤病，球场，小连
盟成绩，或者是左打右打等因素。不过整体而言，这个预测系统比起那些重量级的 CHONE
，PECOTA，和 ZiPS 却毫不逊色。而我把我的工具叫做“快速而且肮脏”（quick-n-dirty
）是有原因的。这个试算表非常的阳春。它并没有包含打点以及得分等数据（fantasy 的
玩家，对不起了）而且球员上场的时间完全是由上半季的资料直接推算。不过它在其他方
面应该表现的还算不错。
How good is this guy?
他到底有多强？
For example, Chipper Jones is currently hitting .373/.473/.613. That's pretty
darn good, but we all know that, good as Chipper is, he can't keep that up.
Pretty much nobody can. That's not a reflection on Jones; it's just the
truth. His projection for the rest of the year is a still-awesome
.316/.409/.553, which would put him at .346/.441/.585 at year's end.
Impressive.
举例来说，Chipper Jones 现在的打击三围是 .373/.473/.613。这是非常吓人的成绩，不
过大家应该都知道，就算像 Chipper 这么强的一个球员，他也没有办法一直维持这样的成
绩。这应该是没有人可以做到的。我可不是想扁低 Jones，这只是事实。预测系统对他下
半球季的推测仍然是十分棒的 .316/.409/.553，而整个球季的平均会是 .346/.441/.585
。我只有一个字可以形容，强。
What about Jose Vidro? There's a blogospheric debate over how bad he is right
now. Yes, Vidro has hit terribly this year (.214/.261/.311—yeesh!), but we
can't look only at this year's stats. That would be dishonest. His current
projection for the rest of the year is .269/.333/.374. Yeah, that's bad,
especially for a DH. No, he probably couldn't help any team in the league,
unless he could still play second base acceptably. But he's not the stinky
pile of poo that M's fans make him out to be. He's more like a, well, let's
say an odorless pile of poo. Still offensive, though.
那 Jose Vidro 又如何呢？在 blog 界正在争论著他到底有多烂。没错，Vidro 今年的打
击成绩实在是惨不忍睹（.214/.261/.311），不过我们不能只看今年的成绩。短期的成绩
是会骗人的。预测系统推测他下半季的成绩是 .269/.333/.374。嗯，还是很烂，尤其是他
还是个 DH。他应该是没有办法帮助任何一支球队，除非他有还办法恢复成一个平均水准的
二垒手。但是，他并不是像水手球迷口中所说的一坨恶心的臭大便。该怎么说呢，他比较
像是一陀没有什么臭味的大便。这样好像还是很酸。
And pitchers? Bay Area whipping boy Zito is sporting a 4.77 FIP. That's not
not what you expect from a $120 million ace. Is he really that bad? Kind of,
yeah. His projected FIP for the balance of the year is a
slightly-better-but-still-not-good 4.49.
那投手呢？湾区的众矢之的 Zito 有着 4.77 的 FIP。这不应该是一个领 1.2 亿的王牌投
手该有的成绩。他真的那么烂吗？嗯，是真的。他这个球季的整体预测 FIP 是“有点进步
但是还是很差的”4.49。
Cliff Lee has been awesome this year, posting a 2.31 ERA—and that's a legit
mark, given that his FIP is 2.37. But this is coming after years of
mediocre-to-poor performance, including a brutal 5.59 FIP last year. It's not
fair to brush off this year's hot half, but it's not fair to ignore all of
last year either. Marcel sees him posting a 3.64 FIP for the balance of the
year. That's remarkable, considering that his Marcel projection entering the
year had him tabbed for a below-average 4.37 FIP going into the year.
Cliff Lee 今年的表现太棒了，他有着 2.31 的 ERA（而由他 2.37 的 FIP 可以看出这可
不是运气）。但他前一年的表现不过是在平均水准或以下，而且还有着 5.59 的 FIP。这
虽然不足以完全否认他今年惊人的上半季，但是我们也不能直接忽略他去年的成绩。
Marcel 预测他今年整体上会有 3.64 的 FIP。和季初 Marcel 推测他会有低于平均的
4.37 FIP 相比，这可是很棒的表现。
Before I leave you, I'll share with you what Marcel thinks the
end-of-the-year leaderboards will look like (on pace for a minimum 500 PA):
在结束之前，我想告诉你 Marcel 所推测今年球季结束的打击排行榜会是怎样（所有列出
的球员都被预测会有超过 500 次 PA）：
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pujols, Albert .337 .451 .596 1.047
Berkman, Lance .322 .424 .604 1.028
Jones, Chipper .346 .443 .584 1.027
Holliday, Matt T .331 .408 .558 .966
Rodriguez, Alex .303 .394 .567 .962
Bradley, Milton .300 .414 .546 .961
Burrell, Pat .270 .399 .538 .938
Ramirez, Hanley .311 .387 .550 .938
Utley, Chase .293 .376 .558 .934
Uggla, Dan C .274 .359 .553 .913
Those stats are a combination of performance already in the bank plus the
Marcel projection for the balance of the year. Here's who Marcel thinks are,
at this very moment, the best hitters in the league.
这个成绩包含了上半季的成绩以及 Marcel 对下半季的预测。而下面是 Marcel 认为目前
全联盟最好的打者。
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Pujols, Albert .324 .427 .586 1.014
Jones, Chipper .316 .409 .554 .964
Ortiz, David .289 .397 .565 .963
Rodriguez, Alex .297 .396 .560 .956
Holliday, Matt T .322 .391 .556 .948
Berkman, Lance .295 .400 .546 .946
Cabrera, Miguel .317 .397 .543 .941
Howard, Ryan J .272 .376 .560 .936
Braun, Ryan J .304 .355 .571 .927
Wright, David A .307 .396 .523 .919
...and the worst (among guys who'll see significant playing time).
......以及最差的打者（这是从有很多上场机会的球员中选出来的）。
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Izturis, Cesar .254 .311 .337 .649
Everett, Adam .236 .288 .353 .642
Berroa, Angel .244 .286 .350 .637
Molina, Jose .236 .281 .349 .631
Bako, Paul .224 .296 .328 .625
Vizquel, Omar .239 .304 .319 .624
Cairo, Miguel .238 .295 .329 .624
Ausmus, Brad .229 .307 .312 .619
McDonald, John .237 .286 .329 .615
Pena, Tony F .239 .273 .336 .610
So go ahead, download, and enjoy!
赶快去下载并好好玩玩我们的工具吧。
References and Resources
参考资料以及资源
PS. Xavier Nady is projected at .282/.342/.467 for the rest of the year.
附注：Xavier Nady 下半季的预测表现是 .282/.342/.467。
The spreadsheets are located at the following URLs:
你可以从下面这些位置下载到文中所提得试算表：
ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_pitching.xls
ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_hitting.xls