出处：http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20680858/
By Bob Cook
MSNBC contributor
Updated: 7:46 p.m. ET Sept. 9, 2007
Tread carefully when spending big for pitching
Zambrano's new deal, recent struggles a good lesson
花大钱签投手可要小心点
冉伯牛最近的窘况是很好的教材
A team or its fans expressing disappointment in a pitcher who signed a
long-term contract is not unprecedented, but the Chicago Cubs’ Carlos
Zambrano set a land-speed record by going only 17 days from signing date to
booing date.
球队或球迷对签大约的高薪球员感到失望不是新闻，不过芝加哥小熊的卡洛斯冉伯牛创
了个高速新纪录，从签约日到被嘘日仅仅花了17天。
True, it helped that Zambrano signed his five-year, $91.5 million contract on
Aug. 17, rather than the offseason. But Zambrano’s rapid fall from grace is
a warning to general managers that as a slew of top-line, in-their-prime
pitchers hit the free-agent market over the next few years, they might want
to think twice about making a Zambrano-sized commitment.
的确，把冉伯牛以五年，九千一百五十万，在八月十七日签下来总比等到球季后再签来
得好，不过冉伯牛的高速自由落体给了众家经理一个警讯。未来几年将有一大票高级货
涌入自由市场，捧著大把钞票签人的经理们这下子可得多想想了。
Presumably, the long, shattered trail littered with the contractual bones of
the likes of Kei Igawa, A.J. Burnett, Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano, Chan Ho
Park, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Appier, Mark Davis, Troy Percival should scare
teams off of overpaying for pitching. (Are there any long-term deals that
worked for the full length of the contract other than Greg Maddux, Mike
Mussina and Pedro Martinez?) Yet it never does, and the top-line names coming
up for bid will make GM’s forget that history, putting them at risk to be
doomed to repeat it.
一长串不堪回首的人名：Kei Igawa, A.J. Burnett, Mike Hampton, Carl Pavano,
Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Kevin Appier, Mark Davis, Troy Percival。（除了
疯狗，老穆，和嘴炮王以外，有任何人在长期合约中一直维持符合身价的表现吗？）照理
说人们应该记取教训啊，不过好像没有。那些市场上的大投手们总是一次又一次地让众家
经理们意乱情迷，一次又一次地把大笔钞票往外送，历史不断重复。（注：这里我又想到
老人国的鸡头先生）
The pitching free-agent market is thin this offseason, the top prize being
Milwaukee closer Francisco Cordero amidst a class of steady old hands (Tom
Glavine, Curt Schilling), unsteady young ones (Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse) and
the usual mass of has-beens and never-weres. So that gives teams an excuse to
save their pennies for after the 2008 season, when Johan Santana, C.C.
Sabathia, Jon Garland and Ben Sheets hit the market, or after 2009, when Jake
Peavy, Brad Penny and John Lackey are available (assuming their teams pick up
their 2008 options, which is a safe assumption if they keep pitching at their
current level). Oh, and if you’re looking for a closer, Joe Nathan and
Francisco Rodriguez will be available after 2008.
今年季后自由市场上的投手们货色不多，最高级的是密尔瓦基的关门人Francisco
Cordero，然后是几个还算稳定的老人Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling，几个不稳定的小伙
子Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse，剩下的就是些曾经是好货或者从来就不是真货的杂鱼们。
所以各队都有借口把钱省下来，留到明年季后采购些高级货，像是Johan Santana,
C.C. Sabathia, Jon Garland, Ben Sheets这些，或者更贪心一点，等到后年，还有像
Jake Peavy, Brad Penny, John Lackey（假设球队有行使球团选择权，如果这几位不要太
失常，应该是个很合理的假设）这些新鲜货呢。喔，还有，如果你的关门人有缺，明年季
后还有Joe Nathan和Francisco Rodriguez可以考虑。
Now it might seem a bit much already to begin questioning whether the Cubs
will rue the day they signed Zambrano, what with the deal not even being a
month old. Zambrano is only 26, which means his deal will end while he’s
presumably still in his prime. Plus, even at a record $18.3 million annual
salary, the consensus is that Zambrano gave the Cubs a hometown discount.
离小熊签下冉伯牛都还不到一个月，现在就说他们会后悔好像有点太早，冉伯牛不过26岁
，所以在他的合约走完的时候他应该还正在壮年期，而且，即使是破纪录的每年一千八百
百三十万薪水，一般认为冉伯牛已经给了小熊个乡亲折扣价。
But questioning, in the form of boos at Wrigley Field at Zambrano‘s last
home start, Sept. 3, is already happening. When Zambrano began taking off his
jersey and gestured to his head as he left a start against the Los Angeles
Dodgers to a rain of boos after 4 1/3 innings, his record since the signing
was 0-3, his ERA 8.29. For good measure, Zambrano ran through a stop sign at
third base and got thrown out, and squatted in frustration rather than back
up the throw home on fellow pitcher Esteban Loaiza‘s two-run single.
不过在九月三日，小熊主场，当嘘声响起的时候，大家都开始怀疑。面对躲人，冉伯牛在
投完四又三分之一局下场，他脱下上衣，挥手向观众致意，嘘声如雨下。而且，他无视三
垒教练指示硬冲本垒出局，还在被对方投手Esteban Loaiza打出两分打点安打的时候没有
到本垒后方补位，只懊悔地蹲在地上。自从签约日以来，他的成绩是零胜三败，自责分率
是8.29。
Zambrano did come back Saturday night to break a five-game losing streak by
giving up only two hits and one run over six-plus innings in a 5-1 win over
Pittsburgh.
冉伯牛在星期六（注：九月八日）倒是回复状态，先发以五比一击败海贼队，投了超过六
局，被打出仅两支安打，丢一分，终止五连败。
But even in victory, Zambrano gave up five walks. His tendency to be among
the league leaders in walks, as well as strikeouts, might be straining his
arm, making it a possibility the generally injury-free rightie might not stay
injury-free during his contract. Zambrano this season has had a tendency to
drop his right shoulder when he pitches, cutting down his velocity and
fueling speculation he is favoring the shoulder because it’s sore —
speculation that Zambrano and the Cubs have not indulged.
不过即使是赢球，冉伯牛还是送出五次保送，他送出三振和保送的次数有领先全联盟的趋
势，这让这位不怎么受伤的右投手在剩下的合约期间，有更高的受伤机会。今年他在投球
的时候倾向于放低他的右肩，使得他的球速减慢，这让大家猜测是不是因为他的肩膀感觉
到酸痛所以他不敢太用力，不过小熊以及冉伯牛都否认。
Zambrano, however, is not the only recent starting pitcher signing that is
proving questionable. In fact, he’s not the only one in Chicago.
然而，冉伯牛，不是唯一一个最近签大约而被怀疑的投手，事实上，芝加哥还有另一个。
Mitchel Lichtman, a former St. Louis Cardinals consultant and co-author of “
The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball,” notes on his blog that of
starting pitchers who throw at least 190 innings, one-third of them will be
out of baseball by 32, and the rest of them will average 140 innings, with
ERA that is a half-point higher. His analysis was inspired by the four-year,
$56 million “hometown discount” 28-year-old Mark Buehrle gave July 8 to the
Chicago White Sox.
前圣路易红鸟顾问Mitchel Lichtman，The Book: Playing the Percentages in
Baseball这本书的作者之一，在他的部落格中写到，在那些超过190局投球的先发投手中
，有三分之一的人在32岁的时候已经不能投球了，剩下的三分之二每年的平均局数只剩下
140局，自责分率则上升半成（注：3.00变成3.50这样）。他的分析灵感来自于28岁的Mark
Buehrle给了芝加哥白袜一个四年五千六百万的乡亲折扣价。
Like Zambrano, Buehrle’s deal seemed like it wasn’t going to happen, but
then came together, coincidentally or not, as fans put pressure on management
to sign him. Buehrle’s performance since his signing, a 3-5 record with a
4.17 ERA, hasn’t gotten him booed, but fans won’t target him as long as
that White Sox bullpen stays so awful. Still, Buehrle has held up Lichtman’s
argument that, sabermetrically speaking, he doesn’t give the White Sox many
more wins than they would have had from somebody else. Especially not with
the White Sox being a mediocre 39-46 when he signed, and an awful 22-36 since.
就像冉伯牛，Buehrle的合约一开始看起来好像不太可能，然后很巧合地，在球迷吵着要
Buehrle的时候，管理阶层把他签下来了。自从签约以来他的成绩是三胜五败，自责分率
4.17，还好没有被嘘，不过只要白袜的牛棚继续烂下去，球迷一时之间还不会注意到他
的。然而，从棒球统计学来说，Buehrle并没有为白袜带来比别人更多的胜场数，他签约
的时候白袜是39胜46败，他签约后白袜是个惨兮兮的22胜36败。
In fact, the White Sox of 2007 are a good argument for not blowing too much
on starting pitching. Chicago has four starters making more than $10 million
a year — Buehrle, Garland, Javier Vasquez and (gack — for two more years!)
Jose Contreras — and yet is only a short Tampa Bay winning streak away from
becoming the first team in major league history to go from World Series
champions to worst team in baseball while increasing payroll. (The
Philadelphia A’s similar decline from 1913 to 1915, and the Florida Marlins’
from 1997 to 1998 were the direct result of payroll purges.)
事实上，2007年的白袜是个不要花太多钱在先发投手上的好例子。他们有四个先发投手
每年领超过一千万：Buehrle, Garland, Javier Vasquez和还有天杀的两年合约的古巴佬
，然后他们只比坦帕湾小鱼队多一场胜场，不然他们就会变成史上第一支球队，在薪水增
加的情况下，从世界冠军变成落赛冠军。（费城运动家1913到1915，佛州马大鱼1997到
1998从天堂到地狱的原因都是因为薪资缩减）
So does this mean when Santana, Peavy, et al, become free agents, teams
should stay away completely? Well, if you are a team with a limited payroll
(not Tampa Bay limited, but San Diego limited) or a long way away from
contention, you might think twice about the $20-$30 million a year these
pitchers are going to get. Can you swallow such a contract if it goes bad?
Can your big-money pitcher handle the abuse if things start to go sour?
所以啦，当山大王，皮维以及其他人变成自由球员的时候，大家应该不理他们吗？这个
嘛，如果你的球队很穷（不是坦帕湾小鱼那种真的穷，是圣地牙哥那种有点穷又不太穷
的穷），或者离季后赛还好远好远，那对于这些可能每年要花两三千万的大投手，还是
就先看看好了。要考虑你的球队能不能忍受每年花大钱丢到水里面，或者是高薪大投手
面对挫折的处理能力。（注：我觉得这两项对洋基或痛痛人来说都不构成任何问题）
If not, then maybe you’re better off taking that $20-$30 million per year
and plowing it into your minor-league system to develop your own arms, and
your scouting system to find them. Or take a little of that and sign Glavine
for a year if you think your team is a contender. Maybe you’ll miss out on a
big, hot name that your fans will love, but in the long run, you might spare
yourself, and your presumed ace, a lot of grief. Let the Zambrano experience
be your distant early warning system.
如果上述问题的答案为否，那你的球队还是把那两三千万拿去灌溉农场的好，或者是加强
球探系统，看能不能长出些好的作物来，不然如果你的球队想在季后赛一争长短的话，也
可以拿出一点钱来，签个葛叔叔一年之类的。也许损失了个球迷爱死了的大明星，不过长
期来说，你的球队也省下了很多担心害怕的机会，就让冉伯牛的经验做为我们的早期警示
系统吧。