出处：http://0rz.tw/4d32h
By MURRAY CHASS
Published: September 2, 2007
Fewer Innings Does Not Have to Mean Fewer Victories
更少的局数不见得意味着更少的胜场数
Wednesday was a critical day for an assortment of pitchers. Some won their
starts that night, giving them 14 victories and keeping them in the running
to become 20-game winners. Others did not win, keeping them stuck at 14
victories and needing to win all six of their remaining starts to become
20-game winners.
星期三对众家投手来说是重要的一天，有些人赢球，拿到第14胜，继续向单季20胜挑战，
有些人停在14胜，得在剩下的六次先发里都拿到胜投，才能达到单季20胜。
With four weeks left in the season, that seemingly vanishing breed known as
the 20-game winner is in the spotlight because last year, for the first time
in a full season (that description excludes three strike-affected seasons),
the major leagues did not have a single 20-game winner.
去年是史上完整球季（有三年因为罢工没有打完完整球季）的第一次，没有任何投手拿到
20胜，因此在球季只剩下四个星期的现在，大家都在关注那些愈来愈稀少的，可能的20胜
投手。
Finishing a second successive season without a 20-game winner would send
officials and others into full flight figuring out whether the 20-game winner
is an endangered species.
如果连续两年都没有人拿到20胜，那大联盟官员和我们其他人都会开始思考，为什么20胜
投手变成稀有动物了？
If the trends in pitching practices continue along the line that has
developed in recent years, starters could wind up with fewer decisions and
therefore fewer wins. Those trends include pitch counts, an increase in the
number of pitches starters need to get through their early innings, therefore
limiting their ability to stay in games long enough to win them; and the
increasing use, by managerial choice and necessity, of relievers who in many
instances are not effective enough to hold leads for starters.
如果近年来球赛中使用投手的趋势继续发展下去，先发投手和胜负相关的机会将愈来愈
少，因此胜场数也将减少。这些趋势包括了先发投手在球赛的头几局中，使用的球数增
加，降低了他们继续向下投的机会；加上教练团倾向更常使用救援投手，当然有时候是
被迫的，而我们常常看到救援投手把胜投的机会给搞砸了。
Those are the reasons popularly cited by baseball people and baseball
aficionados for significant changes in pitching, but they are not necessarily
valid where statistics are concerned.
棒球相关人士或球迷常常拿上面提到的理由来解释近年来投手角色的变化，不过从统计的
角度来看就不一定是这样了。
When Tom Glavine gained the 300th victory of his career recently, it was
widely speculated that he could be the last 300-game winner because pitchers
these days have fewer chances to win games. But the Elias Sports Bureau found
that not to be so. The percentage of wins by starters, Elias determined, has
not changed appreciably, if at all, in the last 25 years.
当谦虚的葛叔叔拿到生涯第300胜时，很多人都认为他可能是最后一位300胜投手，因为
现在的投手拿胜投的机会比以前更少了。不过根据 Elias Sports Bureau 的数据显示，
事实可能不是这样，因为先发投手拿到胜投的机率在这25年来其实并没有太大的改变。
This season, starters have gained 70 percent of the victories. Five years ago
and 10 years ago, starters had 70 percent of the victories. Continuing in
five-year increments, it was 69 percent in 1992 and 1987. In 1982, it was 70
percent.
今年球季，先发投手拿到70%的胜投，五年前，十年前，这个数字都一样。如果以每五
年的累计来看，累计至1992和1987年球季的数字是69%，而累计到1982年球季则是70%。
In other words, pitchers today may be throwing fewer pitches and lasting
fewer innings than their predecessors, but they are still receiving credit
for the same share of victories.
换句话说，现在的先发投手也许投的局数更短，球数更少，但是和以前的先发投手比起
来，他们拿到胜投的机会是一样的。
The question, then, is why are pitchers suddenly unable to win 20 games? Last
season, Johan Santana and Chien-Ming Wang led the majors with 19 victories
each. Six pitchers led the National League with 16, the lowest league-leading
total ever.
所以啦，到底为什么众先发投手们突然拿不到单季20胜了？去年球季，大联盟的领先者是
双城山大王和北佬小王，各19胜，而国联则是史上最惨的六位投手各16胜。
Santana seemed certain to win 20 after gaining his 18th win Sept. 10. He had a
possible four starts left, but after he won only one of the first three,
Manager Ron Gardenhire saved him for the playoff opener rather than have him
pitch on the final day of the season.
去年的九月十日山大王拿到第18胜，剩下四次先发，看起来很有希望拿下单季20胜，不过
接下来的三次先发他只赢了一场，所以总教练 Ron Gardenhire 让他休息好准备季后赛第
一场先发，所以球季的最后一天山大王并没有出场投球。
Yesterday began with 21 pitchers at 14, 15 or 16 victories, and the calendar
allowing another six starts for each.
从昨天起算，球季赛只剩下六次先发机会了，而总共有21位投手的胜场数在14-16场。
Four of the pitchers had 16 victories: Tim Wakefield and Josh Beckett (Red
Sox), John Lackey (Angels) and Wang (Yankees). Four had 15: Tim Hudson
(Braves), Jake Peavy (Padres), Kelvim Escobar (Angels) and C. C. Sabathia
(Indians).
16胜的有四位，赤袜的老蝴蝶和北极，天使的雷基和北佬的小王。15胜的也有四位，斧头
帮的哈德森，教士的皮维，天使的交友男和笑脸人的CC。
Thirteen pitchers had 14 wins. Jeff Francis (Rockies), Roy Oswalt (Astros)
and Aaron Harang (Reds) joined that group Wednesday, which they needed to do
to stay mathematically alive for 20. Santana (Twins), Roy Halladay (Blue
Jays), Noah Lowry (Giants), Brad Penny (Dodgers) and Carlos Zambrano (Cubs)
did not win that day, meaning they will have to win the rest of their starts
to become 20-game winners.
接下来是14胜，共13位，分别是洛矶的法兰西斯，太空人的奥斯渥，红人的哈伦，这三位
在星期三拿到14胜，刚好是想要拿到单季20胜的最低门槛，再来是双城山大王，蓝鸟哈乐
戴，巨人洛伊，躲人佩尼，和小熊冉伯牛，这几位得要在剩下的先发机会全赢才能拿到20
胜。
First-Inning Blues
第一局忧郁症
On consecutive nights last week, two starting pitchers, Ervin Santana
(Angels) and Andrew Miller (Tigers), failed to get out of the first inning.
They brought to 19, Elias said, the number of starting pitchers who had
failed to complete one inning this season.
上个星期连着两个晚上，天使山小王和大猫的米勒分别都投不完第一局，今年球季到目前
为止，总共有19位先发投手有同样悲惨的遭遇。
Santana recorded one out and Miller two, but last night at Florida, J. D.
Durbin (Phillies) topped them. He became the sixth starter this season who
did not record an out.
山小王拿到一个出局数，米勒两个，不过昨天晚上有个家伙更厉害，费城人德宾连一个出
局数都没拿到就下场了，他是今年的第六个这样搞笑的先发投手。
Durbin faced seven Marlins batters, and all seven scored after five got hits,
one walked and one was hit with a pitch. Durbin, a 25-year-old right-hander,
departed after throwing only 19 pitches.
德宾面对马大鱼七位打者，全部回来得分，被打出五支安打，投出一个保送和一个触身
球，芳龄25的德宾仅仅丢了19个球就下台一鞠躬。
Two of the other five no-out starters, Jeff Karstens and Darrell Rasner, both
of the Yankees, were knocked out of their starts by batted balls. Karstens
(six pitches) sustained a broken leg, Rasner (nine pitches) a broken finger.
另外五个没有拿到出局数就下场的家伙，其中有两个其实很倒楣，都是北佬，卡尔斯坦和
雷斯纳，都是被球打到下场的，卡尔斯坦丢了六球断腿，雷斯纳丢了九球断手指。
Kyle Davies (then with the Braves) faced five batters, throwing 22 pitches;
Nate Robertson (Tigers) lasted six batters (30 pitches); and Kirk Saarloos
(Reds) left after seven batters (38 pitches).
剩下三位，分别是前斧头帮戴维斯面对五位打者丢22球，大猫罗伯森六位打者30球，红人
萨尔路斯七位打者38球。
Great Hit, Great Field
好打者，好守备
Plácido Polanco stroked three hits in each of Detroit’s first two games and
hasn’t stopped hitting. But then, Polanco never stops hitting.
大猫的波兰哥在前两场比赛各击出三支安打，而且一打就停不下来。
A good hitter who is also a good fielder, Polanco was batting .340, fourth
best in the major leagues, through Friday. Entering the weekend, he was the
toughest batter to strike out, doing so once every 21.9 plate appearances.
到星期五为止，波兰哥的打击率是0.340，大联盟排名第四，至本周为止他是最难被三振的
打者，每21.9次上场打击才会被三振一次。喔对了，还有他的守备也是金手套级的。
Even more impressive numbers were 155 (games) and 766 (fielding chances). That
’s how long Polanco, a second baseman, had played without committing an
error, both major league records, through Friday. He made his last error July
1, 2006.
虎烂的来了，至星期五为止，镇守二垒的波兰哥已经出赛155场，面对766次守备
机会而没有失误，史上第一。他上一次失误已经是去年的七月一日。
“His range is solid, not spectacular,” said David Dombrowski, the Tigers’
general manager. “He catches everything he gets to, he turns double plays
well and he goes back on pop-ups well.”
‘他的守备范围很稳定，并不是吓死人的大，只要他接得到他都稳稳的接，稳稳地完成
双杀，稳稳地后退接小飞球。’大猫的经理咚布洛斯基说。
But Polanco’s flawless fielding is almost taken for granted; it’s his
hitting that commands attention.
不过大家都觉得波兰哥的守备好是理所当然，他的打击好才是稀奇。
“He is just a good hitter,” Dombrowski said. “He has a nice short stroke,
makes contact, puts the ball in play. He takes what the pitcher gives him and
uses the whole field. He’s not a guy who tries to do more than he’s capable
of doing. He’s not a home run hitter; he doesn’t try to be a home run
hitter. But he does hit the ball out of the park sometimes. He knows his
limitations and handles them well.”
咚布洛斯基说：‘他真是个好打者，他的挥棒动作小，常击中球心，把球打进场中。投手
丢什么他就打什么，可以把球打到球场的任何地方，他不是那种会强求的打者，他不是个
全垒打高手，他也不强求打全垒打，不过有时候还是会打出球场啦，他知道自己的极限在
哪里并且适应得很好。’
The Tigers acquired Polanco from the Phillies in June 2005 for reliever
Ugueth Urbina.
大猫在2005年六月用后援投手尔毕纳从费城换来波兰哥。
“We wanted to upgrade ourselves at second base; the Phillies were interested
in Urbina,” Dombrowski said. “We had depth in the bullpen; they had Utley
at second and Polanco wasn’t playing for them. Two of our scouts recommended
him and said he would help our ball club.”
‘我们想在二垒作些补强，而费城对尔毕纳满有兴趣的，我们的牛棚人才济济，不缺他一
个，而费城有阿特力守二垒，不需要波兰哥，加上有两个球探建议说波兰哥是个好货。’
咚布洛斯基说。
Polanco has helped the Tigers, and an official scoring change helped Polanco.
In a game Aug. 24, he was initially charged with a throwing error, but the
scorer, after talking to the umpire, changed it to an error on first baseman
Marcus Thames.
波兰哥帮了大猫，记录组的改判则帮了波兰哥。八月二十四日的一场比赛，他本来被记
了一次传球失误，不过记录组在跟裁判讨论过后改记一垒手天姆斯的接球失误。
Rollins Backs Up His Words
罗林斯说到做到
Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies’ shortstop, deserves some kind of honor.
费城的游击手罗林斯值得大家帮他拍拍手。
Even before spring training, Rollins put his neck on the chopping block,
declaring unabashedly that the Phillies were the team to beat this year.
远在春训之前，罗林斯就很高调地说今年费城将会强大无比。
Although they are finally contending for the National League East title,
courtesy of the Mets’ generosity, the Phillies haven’t lived up to Rollins’
s boast, but he gets no blame. He hasn’t let the team’s lack of cooperation
undermine his performance.
即使费城今年得要靠梅子队最近糟糕的表现，才有机会竞争国联东区王座，不过罗林斯靠
自己的好表现带着费城向前走。
A .274 career hitter, Rollins has batted just under .300 most of the season
and has produced numerous key hits.
生涯打击率0.274，罗林斯今年的打击率只比三成低一点点，并且常常在关键时刻击出安
打。
He was instrumental in the Phillies’ stunning four-game sweep of the Mets
last week. On Monday, he led off the third inning with a single and scored on
a home run, then singled with one out in the sixth and scored another run.
上星期，罗林斯的表现帮助了费城四场横扫梅子队，星期一他在第三局首先上来击出安打
然后被队友的全垒打送回来，然后在第六局一出局击出安打并回来得分。
In the second game, with the Mets leading, 2-0, Rollins led off the eighth
inning with a home run, starting the Phillies on their way to a 10-inning
victory. The next night, his leadoff homer in the first inning tied the
score, and his fifth-inning single contributed to what turned out to be the
decisive run.
第二场比赛，梅子领先二比零，罗林斯在第八局首先上场击出全垒打，带领费城以十局获
胜。隔天晚上，他的首打席全垒打把比数扳平，然后在第五局打出了带胜利打点的安打。
Then in the final game of the series, Rollins opened the first inning with a
double, his first of three hits, and scored the first run of what would
become an 11-10 series-sweeping victory.
系列赛最后一场，罗林斯首打席二垒打并回来得分，共击出三支安打带领费城以11：10
获胜并横扫梅子。
A Brewer Who Just Can’t Win
赢不了球的酒鬼们
After 16 successive starts in which they didn’t win once, the Milwaukee
Brewers removed Chris Capuano from the starting rotation and relocated him in
the bullpen. They had no interest in seeing if Capuano could match the
dubious achievement of Jack Nabors.
经过连续16场的先发都赢不了球之后，酒鬼们把卡普阿诺从先发轮值丢到牛棚去，
他们一点都不想知道卡普阿诺能不能打平 Jack Nabors 创下的了不起纪录。
In 1916, according to Elias, Nabors made 17 consecutive starts for the
Philadelphia Athletics without him or them winning. Nabors’s inability to
win something he started isn’t the worst case of pitching futility. In 1912,
Walt Dickson made 18 consecutive starts that the Boston Braves lost.
根据Elias的资料，1916年，Nabors在费城运动家队创下连续先发17场都没赢球的了不
起记录，不管是先发胜投或球队胜利，通通都没有。不过Nabros还不是史上最逊的，1912
年，Walt Dickson 在波士顿勇士队连续先发的18场，他们一场都没赢。
Capuano, who last won May 7 and whose winless streak symbolizes the Brewers’
collapse, may still get a chance to extend his streak, but for now he is a
relief pitcher. That doesn’t mean he has been able to escape losing. In his
first two relief appearances, he was the losing pitcher, meaning the Brewers
had lost 18 consecutive games in which he had pitched.
卡普阿诺，他的连续输球记录象征了酒鬼们的全面崩溃，他上一次赢球是在五月七日。
也许以后他还有机会延续这个记录，不过他现在是个后援投手。作为后援投手不一定就
代表卡普阿诺不会输球，他的前两次后援上场还是输球，所以酒鬼们在他出赛的时候已经
连输了18场了。