https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21725763-everyone-would-lose-how-nuclear-war-korea-could-start-and-how-it-might-end?frsc=dg%7Cd
很有趣的架空兵推, 讨论北韩问题如何可以逐步的走向全面战争
我大概摘要翻译一下:
IT WAS March 2019. America and South Korea were conducting an annual
large-scale military exercise, Foal Eagle, involving nearly 20,000
American troops and about 300,000 Korean counterparts. The drill was
taking place against a backdrop of continuing missile tests by the
North Koreans.
2019年三月, 美韩发动联合军事演习, 动员两万美军和30万韩军
Over the previous two years, the regime of Kim Jong Un had successfully
test-launched several intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The
most recent was another two-stage rocket that analysts reckoned could
reach any city in America. It carried what appeared to be a credible
re-entry vehicle to shield its nuclear warhead as it plummeted through
the Earth’s atmosphere towards its target and from which decoys could be
fired to bamboozle missile defences.
然后再2016~19年这三年间, 北韩政权成功的多次试射洲际弹道飞弹. 并且飞弹还有
可以让核弹头重返大气层的载具, 以及用来吸引反弹道飞弹的诱饵. 飞弹射程涵盖
所有美国的大城市.
A seventh nuclear test in January had confirmed that the warhead carried
by the missile would in time be a thermonuclear one with the power to
destroy all life within an area of 70 square kilometres.
2019年一月份第七次北韩核子试爆证实北韩的飞弹可以装载热核弹,可以杀死70
平方公里内的所有生物
Whereas other new nuclear states, such as Pakistan and India, had been
content to carry out all their testing underground, Mr Kim had boasted
since the start of the year that he would soon provide final proof that
would convince the world to respect North Korea’s nuclear capability.
If the North really carried out such a test, the electromagnetic pulse
it would cause could take out satellites and damage power stations on
the ground.
同时金胖也宣称, 不像印度和巴基斯坦会躲起来搞地下核子试爆, 北韩计画进行
公开的核子试爆（可能是大气层内或之外）．用来向世界证实北韩的核武能力
如果进行此一实验，其电磁脉冲会把地面上的卫星传讯以及电力系统造成危害
For Donald Trump, that would cross a red line. The moment was now or never.
Responding to claims by Mr Kim at the outset of what was to become his
troubled presidency that North Korea was in the final stages of developing
an ICBM, he had declared on Twitter, “It won’t happen!” In June 2017,
a few days before North Korea conducted its first ICBM test, Mr Trump had
stated that the “era of strategic patience” with Mr Kim was over.
对于川普来说这等于是北韩穿越了红线． 因为川普在２０１７年６月就宣布
美国不会允许北韩有洲际弹道飞弹．
The president had thus far heeded the warnings of his defence secretary,
Jim Mattis, and his national security adviser, H.R. McMaster. The risks
of taking military action were too great, they had argued. But Mr Trump
was no longer willing to listen. Mr Mattis was said to be on the brink
of resignation, partly because he did not believe that Mr Kim was about
to carry out an atmospheric test. Mr McMaster had been fired and replaced
by John Bolton, a hawkish former ambassador to the UN who had been a prime
mover for action to overthrow Saddam Hussein because of his supposed
arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. Mr Bolton had told the president
that a high-altitude test was imminent. He had long argued for doing
whatever it would take to bring about regime change in North Korea.
川普总统不顾他的高级将领的反对和警告， 换上John Bolton当上国家安全问
他在布什执政之时，是美国驻联合国大使，强烈支持发动第二次波湾战争
他说服川普北韩即将发动在大气层内的核子试爆，所以美国应该采取行动造成北韩
政权更换
Mr Trump did not necessarily want to go that far. China’s leader,
Xi Jinping, had warned him that there would be “serious consequences”
if such a step was being considered. It was not clear whether China
would step in to help North Korea as it had in the past (the view in
Washington was that it would not). What was not in doubt was its
hostility to anything that might bring American forces north of the
38th parallel and close to China’s border.
川普不想和走那么远， 因为习近平有警告过川普．但是美国也不清楚如果美军
穿越北纬３８度线，中共会不会协助北韩
South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, had at first been strongly
against any pre-emptive strike, as his country would bear the brunt
of any subsequent miscalculation by either side. But after bullying
from Washington, he had reluctantly withdrawn his opposition. Mr Trump
felt very strongly that he needed to show his supporters at home that
he could still make tough decisions.
韩国总统强力反对发动先制攻击，但是在美国强大的压力下收回了反对，川普
想要透过此一决策来说服国内他还能做出强大的决策
To that end, he had asked his military advisers to come up with a plan
that would show he meant business; powerful enough to make Mr Kim think
twice before hitting back, but not so drastic as to trigger war.
最后川普要求他的军事顾问计画一个军事行动，强大到可以让金胖不敢反击
但是也没有规模大到会引发全面战争
The preferred option would have been to have shot down the missile in
its boost or ascent phase with interceptors fired from US Navy destroyers.
But new SM3-Block2A interceptors, which might have been fast enough to do
the job, were not yet ready for deployment. The plan the Pentagon had
therefore come up with was to fire a salvo of cruise missiles from a
submarine in the Sea of Japan, destroying the missile on the ground.
Much would depend on getting prompt intelligence from surveillance
satellites and high-flying drones to hit the launch site before the missile
could be fired. Any subsequent tests, Mr Kim would be told, would get the
same treatment. A belligerent response by Mr Kim would be met by an attack
on his nuclear and missile facilities.
一开始计画是一旦北韩再次试射弹道飞弹，就用标准三型飞弹击落正在起飞的
弹道飞弹，但是因为标准三型拦截弹没有完全处于战备状态，所以决定改成用
战斧巡弋飞弹击毁发射台，把飞弹摧毁在地面上．并且明确警告金胖，更进一步
的试射都会被摧毁，如果有核子试爆或是飞弹试射，他的核子和飞弹会被打击
Mr Trump was warned, however, that although Mr Kim was thought to be
rational, he faced political problems of his own and would have to
react in some way. According to the most optimistic scenario, Mr Kim
might feel that he could get away with a gesture, such as firing
missiles at the outer islands, in an operation similar to the shelling
of Yeonpyeong in 2010. He might also conclude that he could anyway
stop testing for now, as he had credibly acquired the means to hit
the continental United States.
金虽然很理性，但是他也必须面对自己国内的政治问题．所以金决定还是试射弹
道飞弹，但是打的是离岛，类似２０１０延平岛砲击那样．
The operation appeared at first to succeed. There was little unintended
damage and not much indication whether the missile had been armed
(nuclear weapons are designed to resist accidental explosion
美军的打击很成功，击毁了北韩的飞弹，但是也不清楚这枚飞弹有没有携带弹头
因为现在核弹头被保护得很好不会因为爆炸而被诱发核子反应
But even as Mr Trump was bragging about the success of the strike,
Mr Kim was ordering elite units from his 180,000-strong special
operations force to carry out a series of hit-and-run attacks on
targets in the South. Some would infiltrate by using a network of
tunnels running beneath the demilitarised zone (DMZ); others would
be inserted from the sea by mini-submarines or flown in by ancient
hedge-hopping An-2 biplanes that were hard for modern radars to spot.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s navy had also begun laying mines in both the
West and East seas in an effort to disrupt trade. A series of cyber-attacks
on South Korea’s critical infrastructure also appeared to be under way.
北韩开始有限的军事反制
包含
１派出特种部队穿过３８线对韩国的特定目标进行打带跑的报复行动
２北韩海军开始在韩国的港口外海施放水雷
３北韩开始对韩国发动网络攻击
（注解 这三件事过去北韩都干过）
That turned out to be a grave miscalculation. The allies could not be
sure what Mr Kim planned next, so they had to prepare for the possibility
that sabotage attacks were a prelude to a major offensive. With that in mind
, the evacuation of foreign nationals, mainly from Seoul, had begun. These
included some 150,000 American civilians, over 40,000 Japanese and up to
1m Chinese citizens. The evacuation was intended to send a strong message
to the North that events were developing a momentum of their own.
原本北韩认为这不至于造成太大的影响，但是足以对韩国政府造成压力让韩国反对
美国接下来的所有反制行为．但是北韩错估了．各国开始撤侨，透过撤侨，给予
北韩一个讯息，危机已经有自己的动量了，已经可能会失控
Therefore, rather than press ahead with OPLAN 5015 immediately, American
commanders decided that they should bring at least another 500 tactical
aircraft into the theatre, both from carriers and from bases in America.
They would be needed to maintain the sortie rate required to destroy
North Korea’s air defences and then hit all the other targets, including
both the ones that were already identified and also others that would emerge.
Although it might take a few weeks, it would signal to North Korea the
seriousness of their intent and might persuade Mr Kim not to press ahead
with a wider attack.
美国开始准备对于北韩进行空中打击，开始ＯＰＬＡＮ５０１５作战计画
计画要动员５００架飞机进入韩国战区．用来维持攻击的空中波次来摧毁
北韩的防空能力和地面目标．借此吓阻北韩不进一步发动军事攻击．
Mr Kim was aware that time was against him. At this stage, he too hoped
to avoid an all-out war, which beneath his usual bombast he knew he might
lose. But the build-up of forces in the South, especially the rapidly
increasing airpower that would soon allow his adversary to launch a
pre-emptive attack against his most important weapons, convinced him
that he had to fire a powerful warning shot of his own.
金胖知道随着时间流逝，他会处于越来越弱势的状况．但他也希望避免战争．
但是他知道南边的兵力动员和增加会导致他的敌人可以发动先制攻击摧毁他最重要
的武力，所以金胖决定赌一把，给一个够强的警告打击来阻止美韩联军进一步在
韩国增兵
With over 14,000 artillery pieces, about 1,000 of them positioned in
caves and bunkers within range of Seoul, he could do a lot of damage
quickly. But unleashing the kind of barrage that his regime had threatened
in the past would take him rapidly past the point of no return. He
also had to decide how much of his long-range artillery force of 170mm
guns and both 240mm and 300mm multiple-rocket launchers he was prepared
to expose at this stage to counter-battery fire from the South. He
therefore opted for a limited salvo that would last under an hour before
pulling back his artillery to positions where it would be less vulnerable.
所以金胖决定对韩国发动一个”小规模”的炮兵打击
部属在３８线的炮兵开始对于韩国发动一小时以下的砲击
His message to Mr Trump was that this was just a taste of what South
Korea and its allies could expect if he continued with his aggressive
war plans. It failed to have the effect that Mr Kim was hoping for.
Despite hints that he might stop there, with several thousand civilian
and military casualties already sustained, American and South Korean
commanders had to take action in case this was just the prelude to an
all-out artillery barrage.
虽然金胖的目的只是警告美韩联军，但是因为出现大量伤亡，导致美韩的指挥官
认为这是北韩大举攻击的前奏
Based on attempts to model the effects of such an attack, they believed
that in just a few hours up to 100,000 people would be killed in Seoul
and perhaps many more if they did not act fast. That meant putting OPLAN
5015 into action immediately and with it a warning directly from Mr
Trump to Mr Kim that, if he launched a missile believed to be carrying a
nuclear warhead, he could expect a swift and devastating nuclear response
that would “remove him and his country from the map.”
美韩联军指挥官认为几个小时后，北韩的炮击会让首尔有十万人死亡
所以川普决定开始执行对北韩的空中打击作战计画
并且告诉金胖，如果金胖发射被认为带有核弹头飞弹，美军将会发动核打击
The ferocity of the initial assault stunned Mr Kim. Large parts of his
massive but technologically crude military infrastructure started
disappearing. Tank divisions he had ordered south were sitting ducks
in the narrow valleys they were forced to pass through. Any artillery
that had been left in the open was being systematically destroyed by
witheringly accurate counter-battery fire. Missile launchers supposedly
hidden in caves were being pulverised by huge bunker-busting bombs.
Twice Mr Kim had narrowly avoided being blown apart himself, when bombs
had hit command bunkers minutes after his departure.
结果金胖被美国的空中打击吓坏了，大量的部队战损，加上他差一点被空袭炸死
Faced with the imminent destruction of his regime, Mr Kim decided to go
down fighting. The artillery he had held back began its bombardment of
Seoul. A number of the shells and rockets had chemical warheads. Special
forces already in the South were ordered to release poison gas in populated
areas. Rumours rapidly spread of the use of biological weapons.
面对北韩政权可能马上就要毁灭，金决定把军事行动升高
开始使用砲兵以及敌后特种部队施放毒气．谣言还说北韩使用了生物武器
Most fatefully, Mr Kim, realising that his time would soon be up, had
made up his mind to launch what remained of his nuclear arsenal. He
cared little about the consequences either for his enemies or his own
long-suffering people. He lived just long enough to know that neither
of his two ICBMs had left its launch pad and three Musudan intermediate
-range missiles, aimed at Tokyo and the American base at Okinawa, had
been shot down by Patriot batteries in Japan before they could reach
their targets. The new THAAD system and Patriot interceptors in South
Korea had taken care of several medium-range Pukguksong-2 missiles.
But to his satisfaction, two short-range missiles, hidden like needles
in haystacks among multiple salvoes of conventionally armed rockets,
had got through to Seoul.
金胖此时已经绝望了 已经不在乎战争的结果只想要使用核武报复
金把他手上的弹道飞弹和核武都打出去
虽然绝大多数都被爱国者飞弹以及THAAD飞弹拦截，但是还是有两枚短程飞弹击中首尔
The initial death toll was put at 300,000, but the effects of radiation
would mean that many more would die in the months ahead, including large
numbers of American civilians and service personnel. Mr Trump was advised
that he had no option other than to retaliate with a nuclear strike on the
North. The decision was taken to use America’s latest nuclear bomb, the
guided B61-12, dropped by a B2 stealth bomber. It was both highly accurate
and could have its explosive power dialled down to reduce civilian
casualties and fallout. At least that was the hope.
首尔被核弹击中后造成大量美国军人或是平民死亡.川普决定进行核子报复
用B2轰炸机投掷美国最新型的B61-12战术核弹.这种核弹高度的精准并且大家预期
因为当量降低所以可以减少民众的误伤.
After four had been dropped, North Korea’s war was over. Mr Kim and most
of his high command had been vaporised in their bunkers, his missile force
and nearly all his artillery had disappeared. Despite the use of relatively
low-yield weapons, military casualties were in the hundreds of thousands.
Over a million people were trying to leave Pyongyang, the capital, in case
of further attack. With order breaking down and food supplies getting scarce
, China found itself facing a humanitarian catastrophe on its border. It
claimed that lethal radioactive material was being blown into Chinese cities
by disrupted weather.
韩战被四枚战术核弹结束. 虽然战术核弹的核子当量不高, 仍然有大量伤亡
超过一半万难民要离开平壤, 北韩境内粮食供应系统毁灭
大量的难民涌向中国边境, 辐射尘也被吹向中国的城市
Nobody knew how an appalled President Xi would respond. The shock sent
stockmarkets across the world reeling, foreshadowing a global recession
to come. Mr Trump, however, was undaunted. He tweeted: “Nuke attack on
Seoul by evil Kim was BAD! Had no choice but to nuke him back. But thanks
to my actions, America is safe again!”
此时没人知道习近平会如何反应
战争使得全球股市崩盘甚至很多人预期新的金融危机即将发生
然后川普发推特:
"邪恶金胖真坏, 用核弹打首尔, 别无选择, 只能用核弹加倍奉还他
但是, 感激我的行动巴, 美国又安全了" ^.<