这网站虽然蛮多政治类的内容而且太偏空
但还算不错，偶尔我会看
帮忙翻译一下
标题:
自3月低点以来，股市上涨76% ，创100年来第三大涨幅... ... 接下来会发生什么
For his weekly Flow Show report, BofA's Michael Hartnett picked a remarkable
front cover chart, one showing that the 76% jump in US stocks from Mar’20
lows is now the 3rd largest YoY move in the past 100 years.
美国银行的迈克尔 ·哈特尼特
在他的每周(资金)流动报告中精选了一张引人注目的封面图表
其中显示美国股市从3月20日的低点上涨了76%
这是过去100年来第三大年涨幅。
Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock
market mania(狂热), which in the last week manifested itself in another round
of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even
bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the
"flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds
($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to
global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in prior 12 years ($452bn)
…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).
造成这种可能性的因素之一，是创纪录的股市狂热再起。
上周，股市狂热表现为又一轮巨额资金流入股市(256亿美元)债券(179亿美元)，
所有这些资金都来自更大规模(473亿美元)的现金流出，为4个月来的最大流出。
哈特尼特表示，在“知情流动”中，有大量资金流入 IG(投资级) 债券(98亿美元)
和新兴市场股票(51亿美元) ，再加上科技资金流入(16亿美
元) ;
过去5个月流入全球股市的资金(6020亿美元)
超过过去12年流入的资金(4520亿美元) ... ...
请注意美国企业回购(过去12年回购6.3兆美元)。
Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833
million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on
Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion
jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but
one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit
optimism.
哈特尼特接着指出了另一个历史性的里程碑:
到目前为止，自12月8日英国首次接种疫苗以来，
全球已经接种了8.33亿2019冠状病毒疾病疫苗，
按照这个速度，全球疫苗接种将在
4月23日的6天内超过10亿次。
Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833
million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on
Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion
jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but
one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit
optimism.
哈特尼特接着指出了另一个历史性的里程碑: 到目前为止，自12月8日英国首次接种疫苗
以来，全球已经接种了8.33亿COVID-19病毒疾病疫苗，按照这个速度，全球疫苗接种将在
4月23日后6天内超过10亿次。
As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist
Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop
10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic
banks on Wall Street).
提醒一下，本周稍早，美国银行定量分析师兼首席股票策略师萨维塔‧萨勃拉曼尼亚
(Savita Subramanian)解释了她为何预计标准普尔500指数(s & p 500)将下跌10% ，收于
3800点的原因，这使得美国银行成为华尔街最悲观的银行。
Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing
in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices,
housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look
at lumber prices...
展望未来，哈特尼特表示，在过去一年的每一次显著反弹之后，“只剩下一个 v 型走势
”: 股价呈 v 型走势，房地产、 pmi、 EPS、 GDP 现在仅剩下是通胀会呈 v 型走势
，看看木材价格就知道了... ..。
备注:他的意思是原物料与物价即将飙涨
The coming inflection point in the economy will be followed by monetary
policy (in 2020...195 cuts & 5 hikes; in 2021...5 cuts & 12 hikes).
Elsewhere, as the BofA CIO notes, "Vaccine = Wall St inflation, mobility =
Main St inflation", while US banks breaking higher vs EM banks reflects
secular turn in rates & inflation.
在经济即将到来的第一个转折点，货币政策将紧随其后(2020年... 195次调降和5次上调;
2021年... 5次调降和12次上调)。在其它方面，正如美国银行首席投资官(CIO)所指出的
那样，“疫苗 = 华尔街通胀，流动性 = 主要通胀”，而美国银行相对于新兴市场银行调
高利率反映了利率和通胀的长期。
Hartnett then predicts that the next surge in yields/taper tantrum awaits new
highs in oil (e.g. Brent >$70/b), new floor for AHE (average hourly earnings)
of 3.5% YoY, and vaccination success triggering faster global reopening &
human mobility. Hartnett sticks with 2021 asset mix reco of
commodities/volatility>equities/bonds.
哈特尼特随后预测，下一波殖利率激增与货币紧缩恐慌在等待石油价格再创新高(比如布伦特原油价
格原油 > 70美元/桶) ，AHE (平均每小时收入)达到3.5% 的新底线，疫苗接种的成功引发更
快的全球重新开放和人口流动。哈特尼特坚持2021年商品/波动性资产 > 股票/
债券。
备注:taper tantrum是对货币紧缩的恐慌，意思就是分析师认为今年震荡会加大、
商品会涨的机率大于股票和债券
Finally, with regard to what happens next, going back to Hartnett's key
observation this has not only been the third fastest annual surge in stocks
in history...
最后，关于接下来会发生什么，回到哈特尼特的关键观察，这不仅是历史上第三快的年度
股市飙升..。
... but also a 2.3-sigma move above average. Such outsized moves have unhappy
endings: as BofA's Savita Subramanian calculated "two+ standard deviation
moves have only happened four other times since 1928, with losses occurring
over the next 12 months in three of the four cases, and the average 12 month
return of -4%.
也比平均值高出2.3个sigma(标准差)。这些过大的举动都有不幸的结局: 据美国银行的 Savita
Subramanian 计算，“自1928年以来，2 + 标准差的举动只发生过4次，其中3次在未来12
个月内出现亏损，12个月的平均回报率为 -4% 。
备注:表示统计数据显示未来1年股市会出现亏损
In other words, as BofA concludes, the current moves implies a projected
12-month price return of -4%, all else equal... although it isn't because
never in the history of humanity has the market been injected with so much
central bank liquidity as it is now.
换句话说，正如美国银行总结的那样，目前的走势意味着，在其他条件不变的情况下，预
计12个月的价格回报率为 -4% ... ... 不过，这是因为在人类历史上，市场从未像
现在这样被注入如此多的央行流动性。
备注:意思就是虽然过去股市出现这么这样的统计数据，但这次有FED疯狂的流动性，
所以未必可以与昔日相同这样判断，给自己一个台阶下，以免爆涨被打脸。
※ 引述《maomaoder (毛毛的)》之铭言：
: 来源: ZeroHedge
: BY TYLER DURDEN
: FRIDAY, APR 16, 2021 - 03:20 PM
: 内容:
: For his weekly Flow Show report, BofA's Michael Hartnett picked a remarkable front cover chart, one showing that the 76% jump in US stocks from Mar’20 lows is now the 3rd largest YoY move in the past 100 years.
: Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock market mania, which in the last week manifested itself in another round of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the "flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds ($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in
: prior 12 years ($452bn)…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).
: Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833 million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but one that hardens BofA's view that Q2’21 will see peak in policy & profit optimism.
: As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop 10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic banks on Wall Street).
: Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices, housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look at lumber prices...
: .... tighter labor market (almost half of all small businesses are unable to fund workers, as we discussed yesterday);
: The coming inflection point in the economy will be followed by monetary policy (in 2020...195 cuts & 5 hikes; in 2021...5 cuts & 12 hikes). Elsewhere, as the BofA CIO notes, "Vaccine = Wall St inflation, mobility = Main St inflation", while US banks breaking higher vs EM banks reflects secular turn in rates & inflation.
: Hartnett then predicts that the next surge in yields/taper tantrum awaits new highs in oil (e.g. Brent >$70/b), new floor for AHE (average hourly earnings) of 3.5% YoY, and vaccination success triggering faster global reopening & human mobility. Hartnett sticks with 2021 asset mix reco of commodities/volatility>equities/bonds.
: Finally, with regard to what happens next, going back to Hartnett's key observation this has not only been the third fastest annual surge in stocks in history...
: ... but also a 2.3-sigma move above average. Such outsized moves have unhappy endings: as BofA's Savita Subramanian calculated "two+ standard deviation moves have only happened four other times since 1928, with losses occurring over the next 12 months in three of the four cases, and the average 12 month return of -4%.
: In other words, as BofA concludes, the current moves implies a projected 12-month price return of -4%, all else equal... although it isn't because never in the history of humanity has the market been injected with so much central bank liquidity as it is now.
: https://bit.ly/2QviVGT
: 心得: 无
: