※ [本文转录自 Darvish 看板 #1Ik017LI ]
作者: anijen (Yu#11/Hammy#32) 看板: Darvish
标题: [外电] 达比修有 vs 田中将大
时间: Mon Dec 23 17:20:03 2013
http://ppt.cc/zFYv
Comparing Japanese Phenom Masahiro Tanaka to Yu Darvish
Lost in the madness of whether Masahiro Tanaka will actually take the mound
for a Major League Baseball team in 2014 is the need to dissect what kind of
pitcher he is.
Via The Japan Times, MLB reportedly reached a basic agreement on a new
posting system with the Nippon Professional Baseball League (NPB), where
Tanaka has pitched the last seven years with the Rakuten Golden Eagles.
Rakuten team president Yozo Tachibana reportedly wants Tanaka to remain in
Japan and may not post him until 2014, though there hasn't been any official
word (again via the Times).
We have all heard the legends surrounding the 25-year-old: Tanaka went 24-0
with Rakuten during the 2013 regular season, going unbeaten in 30 starts from
August 2012 to November 2013.
Tanaka would have the unenviable task of being the first major Japanese
pitcher to come from Japan since Yu Darvish two years ago. Fairly or
unfairly, comparisons between the two will last for as long as the two pitch
in the same league. If they face off in the same game, imagine what the media
coverage will be like.
Until we get to that moment, if we ever do, now seems like a good time to
examine the similarities and differences between Tanaka and Darvish,
specifically examining how the pre-MLB scouting reports compare.
不管田中2014年到底会不会在大联盟投球(乐天老板说他还没答应)
我们都知道这25岁投手的传奇:2013年球季-24胜0败。
达比修跟田中在日本都是在同一个联盟投球，看看进入大联盟前的球探报告吧。
Darvish, obviously, has more than lived up to the hype.
达比修-很明显的，比当初评价的还优。
The Texas ace finished in the top 10 of AL Cy Young voting in his first two
seasons, including a second-place finish in 2013. He led the league with 277
strikeouts, 6.2 hits allowed per nine innings and 11.9 strikeouts per nine
innings last season.
进入大联盟前2季在美联CY票选都有进前10名，今年是第2，
去年球季领先美联的277K,每9局6.2安打数及11.9的K/9。
That is a lofty bar for Tanaka to reach, which probably isn't fair to him. He
works and is built differently, so he will have to get hitters out in
different ways.
拿田中来比是有点不公平，因为他们解决打者的方式不同。
Let's examine Tanaka and Darvish as both were/are preparing to enter MLB for
the first time, using old scouting reports and analysis.
看看他们的进大联盟前的球探报告吧
Physical Comparison 体格比较
When evaluating pitchers, particularly right-handers, you are looking for
height and weight right away. You don't want a guy to be too tall (think 6'6"
or above) because those players tend to have longer limbs that make it
difficult to repeat mechanics and throw consistent, quality strikes.
评估一位投手，尤其是右投，你马上会看身高及体重。
你不会想要他太高(6呎6吋)，四肢长在投球重复的动作下，会影响一致性。
At the same time, you don't want a pitcher who is too small (around 5'11" or
6'0") because they can be frail and aren't able to get enough plane on the
fastball.
但你也不会想要他太矮(5呎5吋或6呎0吋)
Some players can buck the height trend, in either direction. Doug Fister is
6'8" and has carved out a very good career for himself as a pitcher whose
strength is a lot of sink on the fastball and throwing strikes. Tim Lincecum
won two Cy Young Awards despite not having an ideal frame at 5'11", though he
did fall apart rather quickly.
也有很高投得很好的Doug Fister(6呎8吋)，不高的Tim Lincecum(5呎11吋)也拿了2次CY。
Darvish has the look of a guy who is going to be a horse at the top of a
rotation. He's listed at 6'5" and 225 pounds. Looking at the length of his
arms and legs, you can see what made scouts drool over him coming out of NPB.
Tanaka is no slouch in the height/weight department. He's listed at a very
solid 6'2" and 205 pounds, which is roughly on par with the measurements for
Zack Greinke.
达比修看起来就像是前段先发的工作马，6呎5吋 220磅，还有他手脚的长度，
这也难怪一堆大联盟球探，流口水也要把他跩离NPB。
田中将大6呎2吋 200磅，跟Zack Greinke差不多。
Yu Darvish Scouting Report 达比修-球探报告
Here is where you will find the greatest separation between Darvish and
Tanaka. Any comparisons between these two players run dry when you get to the
sheer volume of pitches Darvish throws and quality of the pitches.
We know, based on two years of evidence in MLB, that Darvish is not just a
No. 1 starter. Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, but
not even he is working with the kind of stuff Texas' ace has.
依据这2年的表现，达比修不仅只是1号投手，当然Clayton Kershaw 目前是地球上最好的
投手，也不代表他有跟达比修一样的stuff。
This didn't come out of nowhere. One reason the Rangers bid a record-breaking
$51.7 million just to negotiate with Darvish, even after Daisuke Matsuzaka
flamed out in Boston, is they understood what he could be.
即使松坂大辅在红袜的表现，也不影响游骑兵花了51.7M的入札表示对他的信心。
In January 2012, prior to Darvish's debut season in Texas, Jim Callis of
Baseball America answered a reader question about putting an overall grade on
Darvish's future projection.
2012年的时候，Baseball America 的Jim Callis回答读者有关达比修未来的预测:
Darvish is a frontline starter who has a proven track record in the Japanese
major leagues. I'd give him a 70/Low (and rank him as baseball's fourth-best
prospect behind Trout, Moore and Harper), and I also could see him as a
75/Medium.
达比修将会是前段先发轮值，我给他最低是70级(当年仅次于Trout, Moore and Harper)，
预估可达75级。
For those who don't know, baseball players and tools are scouted using a
20-80 grading scale; 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is below average, etc.
Anything or anyone at a 70 is the rarest of rare, while an 80 is Mike Trout's
all-around game, Andrelton Simmons' arm and glove or Miguel Cabrera's hit
tool.
PS.球探用语:通常以20-80为范围，50是平均，60是不错，40略低于平均，
任何人任何事在70已是少见的少见，80大概就是Mike Trout全部=Andrelton Simmons的手臂
+手套=Miguel Cabrera的打击。
Putting a 70 on Darvish before he ever threw an MLB pitch speaks volumes
about how highly regarded he was around the game.
在达比修一球未投就给他评70说明了一切。
Using the scouting report to evaluate Darvish's stuff, Baseball America
(subscription required) listed six pitches (four-seam and two-seam fastball,
slider, curveball, splitter, changeup), all of which graded out as at least
plus (60 grade).
达比修的stuff，6颗球种(four-seam and two-seam fastball, slider, curveball,
splitter, changeup)，至少都评为60起。
He also earned high marks for athleticism, which "allows him to consistently
repeat his delivery and command his pitches."
Do you know how rare it is for a pitcher to have one 60-grade pitch, let
alone six? I guarantee that you can search scouting reports for days and not
find another pitcher who grades out like Darvish does.
知道有一颗球种被评为60有多少见? 6颗?
保证你去找球探报告，还不可能找到跟达比修一样的。
In addition to the overall quality of his stuff prior to pitching for the
Rangers, Darvish has progressed and gotten better.
达比修还更进化
Yu Darvish Pitch Velocity, 2012-13 /达比修2012-2013球种均速
Season 4缝线速球 2缝线速球 卡特球 指叉 滑球 曲球
2012 92.6 92.7 89.7 87.2 81.6 70.9
2013 94.1 95.2 91.0 85.6 82.7 69.9
He may not be the best pitcher in baseball—at least not yet—but Darvish
might have the best scouting report in the sport.
他可能不是地球上最棒的投手-起码目前还不是，但可能拥有最棒的球探报告。
Masahiro Tanaka Scouting Report 田中将大球探报告
Unlike Darvish, who has two years of MLB experience, the books haven't been
written on Tanaka or his stuff yet. There are reports breaking down what the
25-year-old has to offer, but they aren't as comprehensive or in-depth as
Darvish's. There will likely be more after he signs with an MLB team,
whenever that happens.
跟已经有2年大联盟投球经验的达比修不同，他的大联盟经历目前还是空白，
对他的了解可能还是要等他加入大联盟球队之后才能更清楚。
The most accessible scouting report available for Tanaka is on YouTube,
showing highlights from his time in the World Baseball Classic. However, that
can be a bit misleading, as most short-form videos will only show a player at
his absolute best.
目前对于田中的球探报告-大部分在YOUTUBE或WBC比赛的精华片段，
不过球员短期比赛的精华表现不是很准。
But we can still glean information from the video. Specifically, look at the
splitter Tanaka throws at the 34-second mark. It may not be quite at Koji
Uehara's level, but that's about as close as you can get.
根据youtube影片，仍然可以看出一些端睨，看看影片34秒这颗指叉球，
有可能跟上原的等级有得拼。
One big concern I have about Tanaka is his delivery. There is nothing
inherently wrong with the arm action or mechanics to make me think arm
problems are coming, but look how wide his step to the plate is.
我对田中最大的疑点是他投球的出手，不是说他的他的手臂动作或重复什么的
让我觉得他手臂有问题，而是他投球前跨的那一大步。
Sometimes, having a long stride to the plate can serve a pitcher well,
because the ball comes out of the hand closer to the plate and gives hitters
less time to react.
有时候跨大步一点没什么问题，毕竟球飞去打者距离更近，打者反应时间变短。
In this case, however, Tanaka's stride is so pronounced that it actually
takes plane off his fastball and makes it easier for hitters to elevate it.
This wouldn't be a problem if he had movement on the pitch, but it's a fairly
straight offering.
然而，田中的跨步太明显了，让打者很容易去评估他的速球，但如果他的速球位移
很大的话那也没问题，但看起来是相当的平。
Darvish also has a long stride to the plate, but he gets such great natural
movement on the fastball and is three inches taller than Tanaka, so he is
able to get away with it more often.
达比修的跨步也是很大，但他的速球有非常自然的位移，而且他身高又比田中高
三吋，所以相较容易解决。
Baseball America's Ben Badler offered up a brief scouting report on Tanaka in
an August piece about the new posting system.
球探网站Baseball America的Ben Badler提供一份8月份调查田中的报告。
At 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, Tanaka throws a low-90s fastball that can touch 96
mph. Even though Tanaka can reach the mid-90s, his fastball is the pitch that
gives some scouts pause because it comes in on a flat plane, making it more
hittable than the velocity might suggest. Tanaka has two secondary pitches that
have earned grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scouting scale, including a 70
splitter with late downward action to keep hitters off his fastball. His low-
to mid-80s slider is another plus weapon, while he’ll mix in a curveball as
well.
6呎2吋. 205磅，田中速球均速90初，最快可达96mph，即使这样，还是让很多球探迟疑，
的地方，因为速球看起来相当的平，这样很容易被打出去，即使有球速护体。
拥有2种第二颗球种，级距分给60 (级距20~80之间)，评为70的是指叉，可让打者挥空，
球速80初的滑球也是一个武器，另外他也会曲球。
A profile like that gives Tanaka a legitimate No. 2 starter ceiling.
However, therein lies another problem: How many players actually reach their
ceiling?
That's not to say he can't do it, but if the biggest questions scouts have
are about the fastball, even though the velocity is strong, it can be harder
to have success in the big leagues. Tanaka might have to start pitching
backward (using off-speed stuff early in counts) to keep hitters off the
heater.
这样的报告让田中的天花板，起码可以达到2号先发的地位。
然而，有问题是:谁都能达到自己的天花板吗?
不是说他不行，球探们对他怀有最大疑问是速球，即使有球速，但是在大联盟
是不太能吃得开的，田中似乎也有比赛一开始投变化球抢好球数的倾向。
Some of the hype has gotten overblown. George King of the New York Post
quoted one MLB scout as saying that Tanaka is better than Darvish.
He is better than Darvish because he is a strike thrower. Overall, Darvish’s
stuff might be a little bit better, but this guy knows how to pitch. He is like
Kuroda, he has a lot of guts. He throws four pitches but when it gets to
[stone]-cutting time, it’s fastball and splitter.
但也有球探报告说的超神，New York Post的George King就说他觉得田中比达比修好。
他比达比修好，因为他会丢好球，整体来说，达比修的stuff比较好，但田中知道怎么投球
他就像黑田，他有4球种，关键时刻会丢4缝线跟指叉。
I'd like to get a better gauge of what this particular scout sees, because
there's nothing about Tanaka that screams he's going to be better than
Darvish. Doug Fister throws as many strikes as anyone, but that doesn't make
him better than Darvish.
我不太去管这位特别球探怎么看的，不过田中是绝不可能比达比修好的，
Doug Fister也是一个比谁都还会丢好球的人，但不代表他就赢达比修。
Even though it sounds like I'm picking him apart, I still think Tanaka is the
best starter available on the free-agent market this winter. (This assumes
Rakuten will post him this year.) He has the potential to be very good—but
even at his best, he won't be Darvish.
看起来好像我有点挑剔田中，没有我仍然觉得他是今年FA市场中最棒的投手
(如果乐天愿意让他入札的话)，他是有潜力可能成为一个很好的投手，但即使
已经达到他的最佳状态，他不可能是达比修。
Despite the inevitable comparisons that will come out if Masahiro Tanaka gets
posted and signs with an MLB team, it's not fair to think the young
right-hander will come to the big leagues and be exactly like Yu Darvish.
尽管两人难免会被比较，但默认他未来在大联盟表现用达比修标准比较，是不公平的。
Tanaka seems likely to end up as a high-end No. 3 starter or a low-tier No.
2. That still puts him among the top 40 starting pitchers in the game, which
isn't too shabby in this pitching-rich era.
田中看来应该会是3号投手(或可能是2号)，仍在大联盟前40大投手之列。
Darvish is different from anyone we have seen come from Japan. He had the
body, stuff and performance to suggest a sure-fire No. 1 starter, which is
exactly what has happened.
达比修跟其他人不一样，他拥有的身材、stuff、表现无疑是1号先发。
Regardless of the differences between Tanaka and Darvish, some team is going
to get a really good, young starting pitcher this winter, if only we could
get Rakuten to ensure he's available to MLB clubs.
如果田中今年冬天可以入札的话，某队将会拥有一位年轻且很棒的投手。
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference unless otherwise noted.