Holiday 2014 Forecast: 'The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies'
http://bit.ly/1CQj21R
by Ray Subers
Release Date: December 17th (3D & IMAX)
Studio: Warner Bros.
Genre: Fantasy
Director: Peter Jackson
Writers: Fran Walsh & Philippa Boyens & Peter Jackson & Guillermo del Toro
编剧与导演：彼得杰克森依旧是这集的导演，而他长期的合作伙伴Fran Walsh(导演的老
婆)与Philippa Boyens也继续担任编剧。比较特别的是“环太平洋”导演Guillermo del
Toro也是哈比人的编剧之一，他原先也是片商考虑哈比人新任导演的人选，但在因不少
因素退出导演职位后，仍然有与杰克森维持合作关系。
Cast: Ian McKellen, Martin Freeman, Richard Armitrage, Evangeline Lilly, Luke
Evans, Lee Pace, Benedict Cumberbatch, Cate Blanchett, Ian Holm, Christopher
Lee, Hugo Weaving, Orlando Bloom
演员阵容：在“荒谷恶龙”出现且活着的演员原则上都会继续出现。奥斯卡影后凯特布兰
奇饰演的精灵女王凯兰崔尔也会有比上一集更多的出场时间。顺便一提，男主角马丁费利
曼为了拉抬电影的声势，将会在电影上映前一周出现在老牌综艺“周六夜现场”担任客座
主持。
Studio Description: Bilbo and Company are forced to be embraced in a war
against an armed flock of combatants and the terrifying Smaug from acquiring
a kingdom of treasure and incinerating all of Middle-Earth.
剧情简介：比尔博与他的伙伴不仅被迫参与一场与一群武装战士的战役，还得避免恶龙“
史矛革”窃取帝国与其宝物，甚至以牠的火力彻底破坏中土世界的可能。
Analysis: Peter Jackson's The Hobbit trilogy concludes this December with The
Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. Advertisements promise that this will
be "the defining chapter" of the franchise, and fans of the Middle Earth saga
are surely excited to see the titular battle portrayed on the big screen.
Outside of hardcore fans, though, it doesn't seem like there's much
excitement surrounding this finale.
卖座情势分析：彼得杰克森的“哈比人”三部曲，终于要在今年十二月以“五军之战”画
下休止符。现阶段的广告不仅指出他是系列电影中“最关键的章节”，中土世界的影/书
迷，应该也会为这场经典战役终于搬进大银幕感到兴奋。然而，对J. R. R. Tolkien(哈
比人原作者)作品兴趣不是那么高的其他乡民，对于这部完结篇的兴趣似乎就不是那么高
了。
The franchise is currently on a downward trajectory: The Hobbit: An Unexpected
Journey earned 20 percent less than The Return of the King, while The Hobbit:
The Desolation of Smaug was off 15 percent from An Unexpected Journey.
不可讳言地，哈比人的卖座线是逐渐呈现衰退的：“意外旅程”虽然在北美仍有卖破三亿
美金，但跟“王者再临”相比就已经有20%的缺口。第二集“荒谷恶龙”更是比第一集下
滑了15%。
The bleeding should slow down with The Battle of the Five Armies: Smaug was
widely considered an improvement over its predecessor, and franchise finales
tend to do pretty well.
不过，这样的失血状况应该可以在“五军之战”获得控制。不仅是因为“荒谷恶龙”的口
碑比起第一集来得更优秀，也是因为系列电影的完结篇通常都会在票房上不错的表现。
Unlike the last two years, though, The Hobbit isn't the only major movie
coming out this December. Noting the lukewarm reception of the first
installment, other studios programmed some very competitive titles: Exodus:
Gods and Kings, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb and Into the Woods
should all chip away at this movie's audience.
然而哈比人在今年的处境跟这两年相比又变得不一样了，因为它已经不是今年年底唯一的
高成本潜在卖座大片。其他片商在看到“意外旅程”的口碑不如魔戒那样热烈后，便蓄势
待发地安排了其他也有不小竞争力的强档，如迪士尼的“魔法黑森林”与大众一口气先后
推出的“出埃及记”与“博物馆惊魂夜3”－这三部高成本且明星阵容坚强的大片，都有
可能瓜分掉原本该属于“哈比人”的观众群。
As a result, a modest decline seems to be in order (somewhere in the five to
ten percent range). Ultimately, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
seems poised to be the lowest-grossing, least-attended entry in the six-movie
Middle Earth saga.
由于以上的利空因素，“五军之战”不仅将面临跟上集相比一定程度的衰退(可能介于百
分之5到10之间)，恐怕也将成为彼得杰克森改编托尔金中土世界史诗6部作品中，美国本
土票房收入最低、买票人数最少的一部。
Forecast: $235 million