楼主:
kutkin ( )
2013-12-16 23:47:26※ 引述《pinwheel1017 (风车1017)》之铭言：
: 1.来源连结:
: http://money.chinatimes.com/news/news-content.aspx?id=20131216000046&cid=1206
: 2.内容:
: 今年银行房贷成长幅度，恐创下金融海啸以来新低水准。行库主管指出，今年10月底国
: 银房贷余额，仅较去年底5兆4,203亿元，微幅增加至5兆5,609亿元，成长幅度2.6％，是
: 金融海啸以来单年最低成长幅度，且明年可能“更悲观”，房贷余额成长幅度不排除更低
: 。
: 多家老行库内部预估，预期明年政府将持续执行健全房市政策，对全体金融机构的房贷
: 余额成长幅度的看法相当保守。
: 行库主管指出，明年相关风险还包括美国财政问题、量化宽松（QE）退场，加上大陆转
: 型、台湾出口竞争力下滑，甚至央行可能开始启动缓步升息政策，台湾内部也有通货膨胀
: 压力、民生消费能力可能渐紧缩，连带使行库难以明确预估房市交易量。
: 多数行库指出，明年将以维持目前营运规模为目标，但也可能因房贷还款速度大于新增
: 余额，让房贷余额微幅下滑。
: 至于今年房贷成长速度创海啸以来新低，行库主管说，主要是银行法72条之2规定，商
: 业银行办理住宅建筑及企业建筑放款的总额，不得超过放款时所收存款总余额及金融债券
: 发售额总和的30％，部份银行比重因濒临30％的上限，所以紧缩房贷业务。
: 根据统计，2008年下半年受金融海啸影响，国银2008年底的购置住宅贷款余额仅较2007
: 年底仅微幅成长1.82％，但接下来数年的成长幅度都介于2.78～5％，但今年至10月底止
: ，余额与去年底相比仅成长2.6％，从5.42兆元增至5.56兆元。
: 至于房屋修缮贷款余额，根据主管机关最新统计，更已从去年底3,8049亿元，大幅降至
: 今年10月底的3,099亿元，已快要跌破3,000亿元大关。银行主管指出，因为主管机关对这
: 部分放款查很严，没有新增动能，最快今年底、最慢明年初，一定会跌破3,000亿元。
: 华南银行主管指出，今年整体预计的放款目标为4.25％，前三季已经成长5.4％，超越
: 进度；其中，房贷今年目前已成长5％，但预计明年全球景气将仅温和复苏，且因今年成
: 长幅度较高，因此明年目标稍微放缓，房贷明年的成长幅度仅有2.5％，仅是今年成长幅
: 度的一半。
: 3.心得或感想:
: 不祥的预感
民国
年月 购置住宅 较去年同期
贷款
8311 1,334,594 31.72%
8401 1,404,514 32.76%
8402 1,411,300 31.08%
8403 1,438,147 31.32%
8404 1,463,430 31.33%
8405 1,483,752 30.43%
8406 1,515,713 29.81%
8407 1,543,088 29.36%
8408 1,565,238 28.11%
8409 1,589,920 26.59%
8410 1,620,746 24.39%
8411 1,649,137 23.57%
8501 1,727,445 22.99%
8502 1,754,069 24.29%
8503 1,773,422 23.31%
8504 1,800,213 23.01%
8505 1,821,364 22.75%
8506 1,881,850 24.16%
8507 1,897,921 22.99%
8508 1,920,116 22.67%
8509 1,939,899 22.01%
8510 1,950,301 20.33%
8511 1,965,120 19.16%
8601 2,041,537 18.18%
8602 2,058,580 17.36%
8603 2,072,719 16.88%
8604 2,087,098 15.94%
8605 2,127,793 16.82%
8606 2,155,535 14.54%
8607 2,181,477 14.94%
8608 2,194,104 14.27%
8609 2,268,391 16.93%
8610 2,259,262 15.84%
8611 2,267,892 15.41%
8701 2,305,426 12.93%
8702 2,315,561 12.48%
8703 2,315,766 11.73%
8704 2,324,849 11.39%
8705 2,327,926 9.41%
8706 2,338,040 8.47%
8707 2,350,061 7.73%
8708 2,353,366 7.26%
8709 2,361,534 4.11%
8710 2,372,537 5.01%
8711 2,415,845 6.52%
8801 2,463,164 6.84%
8802 2,473,353 6.81%
8803 2,482,198 7.19%
8804 2,495,731 7.35%
8805 2,509,696 7.81%
8806 2,522,486 7.89%
8807 2,521,214 7.28%
8808 2,519,395 7.05%
8809 2,517,124 6.59%
8810 2,520,950 6.26%
8811 2,525,593 4.54%
8901 2,529,594 2.70%
8902 2,521,279 1.94%
8903 2,527,972 1.84%
8904 2,549,127 2.14%
8905 2,553,736 1.75%
8906 2,560,800 1.52%
8907 2,573,770 2.08%
8908 2,572,606 2.11%
8909 2,587,128 2.78%
8910 2,615,963 3.77%
8911 2,635,105 4.34%
9001 2,655,767 4.99%
9002 2,654,592 5.29%
9003 2,653,388 4.96%
9004 2,656,899 4.23%
9005 2,654,500 3.95%
9006 2,655,117 3.68%
9007 2,646,151 2.81%
9008 2,642,488 2.72%
9009 2,634,448 1.83%
9010 2,618,621 0.10%
9011 2,633,945 -0.04%
9101 2,638,405 -0.65%
9102 2,637,723 -0.64%
9103 2,636,522 -0.64%
9104 2,650,578 -0.24%
9105 2,667,613 0.49%
9106 2,682,307 1.02%
9107 2,689,687 1.65%
9108 2,697,379 2.08%
9109 2,706,505 2.74%
9110 2,721,496 3.93%
9111 2,741,355 4.08%
9201 2,771,963 5.06%
9202 2,769,515 5.00%
9203 2,780,267 5.45%
9204 2,794,538 5.43%
9205 2,811,011 5.38%
9206 2,835,738 5.72%
9207 2,857,916 6.25%
9208 2,879,683 6.76%
9209 2,903,432 7.28%
9210 2,927,819 7.58%
9211 2,979,364 8.68%
9301 3,071,398 10.80%
9302 3,093,510 11.70%
9303 3,127,725 12.50%
9304 3,180,954 13.83%
9305 3,224,569 14.71%
9306 3,263,001 15.07%
9307 3,295,179 15.30%
9308 3,322,618 15.38%
9309 3,351,580 15.44%
9310 3,393,476 15.90%
9311 3,430,332 15.14%
9312 3,482,662 14.60%
9401 3,539,074 15.23%
9402 3,547,054 14.66%
9403 3,594,975 14.94%
9404 3,625,532 13.98%
9405 3,661,193 13.54%
9406 3,706,865 13.60%
9407 3,736,757 13.40%
9408 3,766,433 13.36%
9409 3,801,093 13.41%
9410 3,838,439 13.11%
9411 3,875,330 12.97%
9412 3,924,208 12.68%
9501 3,965,063 12.04%
9502 3,966,924 11.84%
9503 4,000,312 11.28%
9504 4,026,485 11.06%
9505 4,061,000 10.92%
9506 4,098,321 10.56%
9507 4,136,415 10.70%
9508 4,148,590 10.15%
9509 4,159,888 9.44%
9510 4,175,947 8.79%
9511 4,228,312 9.11%
9512 4,271,879 8.86%
9601 4,291,003 8.22%
9602 4,303,817 8.49%
9603 4,312,290 7.80%
9604 4,321,778 7.33%
9605 4,367,650 7.55%
9606 4,390,320 7.12%
9607 4,419,136 6.83%
9608 4,437,372 6.96%
9609 4,455,163 7.10%
9610 4,466,418 6.96%
9611 4,482,492 6.01%
9612 4,505,551 5.47%
9701 4,498,082 4.83%
9702 4,489,123 4.31%
9703 4,500,861 4.37%
9704 4,528,918 4.79%
9705 4,561,731 4.44%
9706 4,596,422 4.69%
9707 4,599,082 4.07%
9708 4,588,099 3.40%
9709 4,586,629 2.95%
9710 4,572,506 2.38%
9711 4,578,403 2.14%
9712 4,587,498 1.82%
9801 4,560,664 1.39%
9802 4,541,260 1.16%
9803 4,543,831 0.95%
9804 4,560,362 0.69%
9805 4,585,547 0.52%
9806 4,614,985 0.40%
9807 4,655,664 1.23%
9808 4,706,518 2.58%
9809 4,734,996 3.23%
9810 4,754,278 3.98%
9811 4,780,131 4.41%
9812 4,816,647 5.00%
9901 4,837,335 6.07%
9902 4,843,556 6.66%
9903 4,867,017 7.11%
9904 4,895,576 7.35%
9905 4,929,467 7.50%
9906 4,955,960 7.39%
9907 4,984,684 7.07%
9908 4,996,342 6.16%
9909 5,010,390 5.82%
9910 5,033,042 5.86%
9911 5,060,684 5.87%
9912 5,109,256 6.07%
10001 5,138,597 6.23%
10002 5,133,940 6.00%
10003 5,167,940 6.18%
10004 5,189,654 6.01%
10005 5,204,803 5.59%
10006 5,215,561 5.24%
10007 5,228,874 4.90%
10008 5,232,813 4.73%
10009 5,245,363 4.69%
10010 5,250,368 4.32%
10011 5,253,308 3.81%
10012 5,274,015 3.22%
10101 5,257,667 2.32%
10102 5,244,341 2.15%
10103 5,250,654 1.60%
10104 5,267,510 1.50%
10105 5,290,918 1.65%
10106 5,319,714 2.00%
10107 5,350,711 2.33%
10108 5,365,315 2.53%
10109 5,373,751 2.45%
10110 5,385,210 2.57%
10111 5,403,458 2.86%
10112 5,420,331 2.77%
10201 5,438,056 3.43%
10202 5,424,495 3.44%
10203 5,426,097 3.34%
10204 5,438,892 3.25%
10205 5,459,238 3.18%
10206 5,479,312 3.00%
10207 5,502,296 2.83%
10208 5,514,741 2.79%
R 10209 5,541,260 3.12%
10210 5,560,923 3.26%