※ 引述《plamc (普兰可)》之铭言：
: ※ 引述《sdhws (sdhws)》之铭言：
: 问题前提错误
: 来看看刚刚才阿萨德倒台的叙利亚，叙利亚在阿萨德爸之前，也是一直政变轮回
: 大体来说一直政变轮回才是战后初创国家的常态，不政变的才是有特别优越之处
: 以阿萨德家来说，阿萨德爸真的强，从混情报出身，一路往上爬罩家族罩全族
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
: 最后整个阿拉维派都被他拉进情报单位了，所以等到阿萨德爸最后不得不政变
: ...他没有一开始就想当老大，只是要在乱世求生存要跟随胜利者，一直跟对边
: 一直升官，升到最后天下第二却发现老板是87会倒台，只好取代他...
: 就变成很稳固的情治机构统治结构，因为整个情报单位都是自己人
: 所以问题问法错误，连续政变才是正常的，没问题，根本不用问
: 是没政变的才不正常，才要问为什么
查了一下阿萨德的父亲-老阿萨德(Hafez al-Assad)的资料:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hafez_al-Assad
Hafez was in charge of the Syrian Air Force.[33] By the end of 1964 he was
named commander of the Air Force, with the rank of major general.[33] Hafez
gave privileges to Air Force officers, appointed his confidants to senior and
sensitive positions and established an efficient intelligence network.[38]
Air Force Intelligence, under the command of Muhammad al-Khuli, became
independent of Syria's other intelligence organizations and received
assignments beyond Air Force jurisdiction.[38] Assad prepared himself for an
active role in the power struggles that lay ahead.[38]
老阿萨德是空军出身，再利用自己空军指挥官的地位建立与自己有裙带关系的情报组织。
In 1957, as squadron commander, Assad was sent to the Soviet Union for
training in flying MiG-17s.
原来老阿萨德当年也是去苏联受过训。
蒋经国年轻的时候也去苏联读过军校。
感觉受苏联栽培过的领导者在位时比较能够长久维持政权？