https://bit.ly/2zbMu8c
这篇文章其实已经有几家媒体写成新闻，但是不少媒体却很故意的将标题下成
很耸动，像是"自动驾驶只能阻止三分之一的车祸"之类，这完全误解了文章内
容，很容易让人对无人驾驶有错误的认知。所以转发原文过来，加上个人简略
翻译，若有错误麻烦告知指正，谢谢。
Self-driving vehicles could struggle to eliminate most crashes
June 4, 2020
Driver mistakes play a role in virtually all crashes. That’s why automation
has been held up as a potential game changer for safety. But autonomous
vehicles might prevent only around a third of all crashes if automated
systems drive too much like people, according to a new study from the
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.
目前几乎所有的交通事故或多或少都有驾驶的疏忽在内，这就是为什么自动化
对于交通安全来说被认为是game changer。但是根据IIHS 的一项新研究显示，
如果(无人)驾驶系统的驾驶方式太像人类驾驶，那么无人驾驶车可能只能防止
大约三分之一的事故。
“It’s likely that fully self-driving cars will eventually identify hazards
better than people, but we found that this alone would not prevent the bulk
of crashes,” says Jessica Cicchino, IIHS vice president for research and a
coauthor of the study.
无人驾驶车最终可能可以比人类更好地识别危险，但我们发现，仅凭这一点并
不能防止大多数的事故 - IIHS 研究副总裁 Jessica Cicchino 这样说。
Conventional thinking has it that self-driving vehicles could one day make
crashes a thing of the past. The reality is not that simple. According to a
national survey of police-reported crashes, driver error is the final failure
in the chain of events leading to more than 9 out of 10 crashes.
传统思维认为，无人驾驶车有朝一日可以让车祸成为过去，但现实状况并非如
此简单。根据一项全国性调查，十起事故中有九起驾驶失误是一连串造成事故
的事件中的最后一项错误。
But the Institute’s analysis suggests that only about a third of those
crashes were the result of mistakes that automated vehicles would be expected
to avoid simply because they have more accurate perception than human drivers
and aren’t vulnerable to incapacitation. To avoid the other two-thirds, they
would need to be specifically programmed to prioritize safety over speed and
convenience.
但是该研究表明，在这些事故中大约只有三分之一的事故是由错误造成的，无
人驾驶车辆有望可避免这些错误，这仅仅是因为他们比人类驾驶有更准确的感
知，并且不容易失效。为了避免另外三分之二的事故，无人驾驶车必须经过专
门的设计，将安全优先于速度与便利性上。
“Building self-driving cars that drive as well as people do is a big
challenge in itself,” says IIHS Research Scientist Alexandra Mueller, lead
author of the study. “But they’d actually need to be better than that to
deliver on the promises we’ve all heard.”
IIHS 科学家Alexandra Mueller 说，制造出开车和人类一样好的无人驾驶车本
身就是一项很大的挑战，但他们实际上必须要比这更好，才能实现我们以前听
过的承诺。
To estimate how many crashes might continue to occur if self-driving cars are
designed to make the same decisions about risk that humans do, IIHS
researchers examined more than 5,000 police-reported crashes from the
National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey. Collected by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration, this sample is representative of
crashes across the U.S. in which at least one vehicle was towed away, and
emergency medical services were called to the scene.
IIHS 研究人员检查了全美至少有一辆车被拖走、有紧急医疗到场的5000多则事
故。
The IIHS team reviewed the case files and separated the driver-related
factors that contributed to the crashes into five categories:
然后将与驾驶有关的车祸因素分成五类：
“Sensing and perceiving” errors included things like driver distraction,
impeded visibility and failing to recognize hazards before it was too late.
"感觉和感知错误"
“Predicting” errors occurred when drivers misjudged a gap in traffic,
incorrectly estimated how fast another vehicle was going or made an incorrect
assumption about what another road user was going to do.
"预测错误"
“Planning and deciding” errors included driving too fast or too slow for
the road conditions, driving aggressively or leaving too little following
distance from the vehicle ahead.
"计划和决定错误"
“Execution and performance” errors included inadequate or incorrect evasive
maneuvers, overcompensation and other mistakes in controlling the vehicle.
"执行与表现错误"
“Incapacitation” involved impairment due to alcohol or drug use, medical
problems or falling asleep at the wheel.
The researchers also determined that some crashes were unavoidable, such as
those caused by a vehicle failure like a blowout or broken axle.
"无行为能力"
For the study, the researchers imagined a future in which all the vehicles on
the road are self-driving. They assumed these future vehicles would prevent
those crashes that were caused exclusively by perception errors or involved
an incapacitated driver. That’s because cameras and sensors of fully
autonomous vehicles could be expected to monitor the roadway and identify
potential hazards better than a human driver and be incapable of distraction
or incapacitation.
在这项研究之中，研究人员想像了一个路上车辆全部都是无人驾驶车的未来。
他们假设这些车辆可以完全防止由感知错误所造成的车祸，或者是无行为能力
驾驶所引发的车祸。
Crashes due to only sensing and perceiving errors accounted for 24 percent of
the total, and incapacitation accounted for 10 percent. Those crashes might
be avoided if all vehicles on the road were self-driving — though it would
require sensors that worked perfectly and systems that never malfunctioned.
The remaining two-thirds might still occur unless autonomous vehicles are
also specifically programmed to avoid other types of predicting,
decision-making and performance errors.
仅因感知错误而造成的车祸占24%，而无行为能力驾驶因素而造成的车祸有10%，
如果路上都是无人驾驶车，只要传感器完美的工作，系统不失灵，这些车祸就
可以避免。而剩下的三分之二车祸仍有可能发生，除非无人驾驶车也被专门设
计过，以避免其他类型例如预测、决定、和表现上的失误。
Consider the crash of an Uber test vehicle that killed a pedestrian in Tempe,
Arizona, in March 2018. Its automated driving system initially struggled to
correctly identify 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg on the side of the road. But
once it did, it still was not able to predict that she would cross in front
of the vehicle, and it failed to execute the correct evasive maneuver to
avoid striking her when she did so.
考虑到2018年3月Uber 测试车撞死一名行人的事故，其无人驾驶系统最初难以
识别路旁的49岁Elaine Herzberg 女士，但是一但识别到了，它仍然无法预测
她会越过车辆前方，而且车辆也未能正确执行正确的规避动作来避免她越过前
方时撞到她。
Planning and deciding errors, such as speeding and illegal maneuvers, were
contributing factors in about 40 percent of crashes in the study sample. The
fact that deliberate decisions made by drivers can lead to crashes indicates
that rider preferences might sometimes conflict with the safety priorities of
autonomous vehicles. For self-driving vehicles to live up to their promise of
eliminating most crashes, they will have to be designed to focus on safety
rather than rider preference when those two are at odds.
超速、非法操作等规划或决策错误而导致的交通事故占研究样本中的40%。驾驶
有意的决定会导致车祸的事实表明，驾驶的偏好有时可能会与无人驾驶车的安
全优先设置互相冲突。无人驾驶车想要实现其消除绝大多数事故的承诺，就必
须在这两者发生冲突时将设计重点摆在安全上，而不是驾驶偏好上。
Self-driving vehicles will need not only to obey traffic laws but also to
adapt to road conditions and implement driving strategies that account for
uncertainty about what other road users will do, such as driving more slowly
than a human driver would in areas with high pedestrian traffic or in
low-visibility conditions.
“Our analysis shows that it will be crucial for designers to prioritize
safety over rider preferences if autonomous vehicles are to live up to their
promise to be safer than human drivers,” Mueller says.
我们的分析表明，对于无人驾驶汽车要实现其比人类驾驶更安全的承诺，将安
全性置于驾驶偏好之上至关重要。