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2018-04-17 01:00:40原文连结：
https://goo.gl/nFQGcD
原文内容：
Tesla Model 3 — Already #1 In Small & Midsize Luxury Car Sales? (USA)
Tesla Model 3 已经在(美国)中小型豪华车销量排名第一了吗？
At the beginning of the month, Tesla noted that it had gotten Model 3
production up to 2,000 cars a week at the end of March. More recently, Tesla
CEO Elon Musk told CBS that Tesla had produced 2,070 Model 3s in the week
leading up to April 10.
在本月初，Tesla 指出，它已经在三月底的时候将 Model 3 的周产量提高到2000辆。
最近，CEO Elon Musk 告诉CBS，Tesla 在截至4月10日的一周内生产了2,070辆 Model 3。
If you assume Tesla stalls at approximately 2,000 cars a week for the whole
month, that’s still over 8,000 Model 3 electric super-sedans produced in
April.
如果你认为 Tesla 在整个4月每周产量停留在2000辆，那4月仍会生产超过8000辆 Model 3
If you assume Tesla makes its way up to 2,500/week in the second half of the
month, that means over 9,000 Model 3s. If you get bullish and expect that
Tesla will jump to 3,000/week in that time period, we’re talking perhaps
10,000 Tesla Model 3s in April.
如果你认为 Tesla 在4月的下半月能够达到2500辆/周，那意味着整个月超过9,000辆。
如果你看好 Tesla，并期望 Tesla 在这段时间内产能将跳到3000辆/周，
那么我们说的是在4月份可能有10,000辆 Tesla Model 3。
Does that match Tesla’s target over the past 6 months for this time period?
No — as we all know all too well. But as Kurt Lowder noted recently, you can
’t really say Tesla’s late when it’s so far ahead of everyone else and is
moving as fast as it can. To quote Ashanti and Ja Rule, “I’m not always
there when you call, but I’m always on time.“
在过去六个月的这段时间，产能与 Tesla 目标相符吗？ 不 - 我们都很清楚。
但正如 Kurt Lowder 最近指出的那样，当 Tesla 已经远远领先于其他所有人，
并且正在尽可能快地行动时，你真的不能说特斯拉迟到了。
It’s somewhat interesting estimating Tesla Model 3 production/delivery
numbers, but more interesting is putting those numbers into context. One of
my favorite ways to do that is to compare to other cars in the Model 3’s
segment. That means the Audi A4/A5, BMW 2 Series/3 Series/4 Series, Jaguar
XE, Volvo S60, etc.
估计Model 3 的生产/交货数量有点有趣，但更有趣的是将这些数字放入整个大局中来看。
我最喜欢的方式之一就是与 Model 3 的其他同级车进行比较。
这是指 Audi A4 / A5，BMW 2系列/3系列/4系列，Jaguar XE，Volvo S60等。
We can expect sales of these models to be fairly similar in April to what
they were in March, but I’ll round all their numbers up to give them the
benefit of the doubt. Just highlighting fairly popular models and their close
siblings, here’s what I get:
我们可以预计这些车款的销量在四月份会与三月份的数据相当相似，
但我会将所有数字无条件进位，以便让他们从中受益。
https://i.imgur.com/mguy0B3.png
As you can see, the Tesla Model 3 is now more or less at the top of the table
even if you add up the sales of somewhat similar models from each brand.
正如你所看到的，即使你将每个品牌的类似车款销售合计在一起，
Model 3 差不多都在表格的最上方。
If you go a step further and expect that Tesla gets up to production of 5,000
Model 3s per week at some point in the coming quarter — and that US demand
holds steady around that number — then the Model 3 will absolutely crush the
competition in this class before the end of the year.
如果你更进一步，并预计 Tesla 将在下一季的某个时间点达成周产5000辆 Model 3，
并且美国的需求保持稳定 - 那么在年底之前 Model 3 绝对会压倒这个级别的竞争对手。
That said, as we’ve pointed out before, it may make more sense to pit the
Model 3 against leaders in the non-luxury midsize car segment. The Toyota
Camry sees approximately 35,000 sales a month, the Honda Accord and Nissan
Altima 24,000 each, the Ford Fusion 16,000, the Chevy Malibu 15,000, the
Hyundai Sonata 11,000, and the Kia Optima 8,000. The numbers those cars see
cover everything from the near-term estimate for the Model 3 (8,000–
10,000/month) to one of the most ambitious targets I’ve seen (40,000/month).
也就是说，正如我们之前指出的那样，将 Model 3 与非豪华中型车的领导者进行对比
可能更有意义。Toyota Camry 每月销售约35,000辆，Honda Accord 和 Nissan Altima
约24,000/月，Ford Fusion 16,000/月，Chevy Malibu 15,000/月，Hyundai Sonata
11,000/月，Kia Optima 8,000/月。
这些数字涵盖了 Model 3 的近期预估产量(8k-10k/月)和最有野心的产能目标(40000/月)
Unless you’re really super, über, extremadamente pessimistic, though, it
looks like the Tesla Model 3 has already risen to the top of the small &
midsize luxury car category and may soon be targeting the podium of the
overall midsize car segment in the United States. Not too shabby for an “
impossible” car that “will never actually get produced.”
除非你真的超级，超级，极端悲观，不然看起来 Model 3 已经上升到中小型豪华车类别
的顶端，并且可能很快将瞄准美国整个中型轿车领域的颁奖台。
心得/说明：
Model 3 的产能目标虽然一延再延，时间上晚了约6-9个月
但销量目前看来在同级别还是无人能敌
不只是电动车，把同级豪华车拿进来比也是如此