WTPN21 PGTW 031200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 132.0E TO 19.6N 135.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 132.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY
680 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 031531Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE
DEPICT A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
SLOWLY MIGRATING OVER THE CENTER, THOUGH STILL CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE
TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST FROM AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT,
WITH LOW (5-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE LLC, STRONG
DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ARC, AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSETTING THE AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW. WHILE
THERE ARE CURRENTLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS IN THE SOUTHERN SURGE
FLOW, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LLC WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHEAST, BEFORE A POSSIBLE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041200Z.//
NNNN
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9419.gif
热帯低気圧
令和元年08月03日22时25分 発表
<03日21时の実况>
大きさ -
强さ -
热帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの东
中心位置 北纬 15度35分(15.6度)
东経 132度35分(132.6度)
进行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
最大风速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬间风速 23m/s(45kt)
<04日21时の予报>
强さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの东
予报円の中心 北纬 17度00分(17.0度)
东経 133度30分(133.5度)
进行方向、速さ 北北东 ゆっくり
中心気圧 996hPa
中心付近の最大风速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬间风速 25m/s(50kt)
予报円の半径 150km(80NM)
https://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/
EC和GFS不约而同地认为94W(准利奇马)即将在菲东生成
目前太平洋高压脊线在日本南方海域
导引纬度较高的范斯高台风稳定朝西北西前进
后续庞大的94W挟带季风低压往北推挤高压
逼迫太平洋高压的势力进行南北向调整
并且在低纬度区西伸
持续导引94W北上
目前资料看来侵袭台湾的机率较低
但仍有部分系集显示高压后期转强迫使94W西折靠近台湾
后续动向仍要留意
目前季风低压东侧除了有94W之外
西侧南海预计也有系统生成
在94W北上的过程将带动季风低压+西南季风北上
南海预测生成的系统走向将是影响西南季风强风轴位置的关键
一周后期对于台湾而言天气转趋不稳
中南部的天气更要多加留意南海系统的生成...