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WTPN21 PGTW 251100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 129.1E TO 21.2N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 128.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 13N 129.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 250619Z SSMI
85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION AND CONSOLIDATION WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261100Z.
//
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