标的：2316楠梓电
分类：多
分析/正文：
心血来潮来回个
看那个能赚钱吗？
好问题，最近听到一段话蛮有意思的：
简单的想法，反而很多人不相信，人们虽然大多不是专家，却又喜欢那种听起来有点懂又有点不懂的事情，因为人们常常想：“如果投资那么简单的话，那谁亏钱？”
那就看看用这些“简单”方法赚钱的巴菲特做过的投资
（英文内容，后文有放中文翻译）
内容取自：
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tom-spain-828b2417_warrenbufett-berkshirehathaway-investing-activity-7335650207516270592-EkEJ
Warren Buffett's Hidden Fortune: Sanborn Map Company
Sanborn Map Company (1960): A Hidden Fortune. . .
In 1960, Warren Buffett—barely 30 years old and running his Buffett Partnership from a modest office in Omaha—made one of the most iconic investments of his early career: the Sanborn Map Company.
What Was Sanborn Map Company?
Sanborn’s primary business was the production of detailed fire insurance maps—highly specialized documents that allowed insurers to assess the risk of fire damage in towns and cities across the United States.
Founded in the 1800s, Sanborn had become the undisputed leader in this niche by the early 20th century. At its peak, over 85% of the fire insurance market relied on Sanborn maps. Its proprietary fieldwork and standardized formats gave it a virtual monopoly. For decades, it was a cash-generating machine.
But by the late 1950s, the tide had turned. Insurers were starting to use their own risk data. New technologies and internal mapping methods began to erode Sanborn’s position. Revenues stagnated. The operating business was in slow but steady decline.
To outside investors, Sanborn looked like a company past its prime, with little growth and an uncertain future. As a result, the stock languished, ignored and unloved.
The Hidden Portfolio
What caught Buffett’s attention wasn’t the map business. It was what Sanborn had done with its retained earnings over the years.
Like many older industrial firms of the time, Sanborn had quietly accumulated a large portfolio of investments—blue-chip stocks and government bonds—managed internally by the board. This investment portfolio had ballooned to substantial size, relative to the market cap of the company.
Buffett’s analysis was simple, but powerful:
- The value of Sanborn’s investment portfolio was roughly $65 per share.
- The stock was trading at $45 per share.
This meant the market was assigning a negative value of $20 per share to the operating business.
Put another way, investors were paying $45 to get $65 worth of easily valued, marketable securities—and getting the map business thrown in for free. In fact, they were being paid to take it.
翻译：
Sanborn 地图公司（1960）：隐藏的财富
1960 年，年仅 30 岁、在奥马哈一间简陋办公室经营“巴菲特合伙公司”的沃伦・巴菲特，做出了他早期投资生涯中最具代表性的投资之一：Sanborn 地图公司。
什么是 Sanborn 地图公司？
Sanborn 的主要业务是制作详细的火灾保险地图——这种高度专业化的文件能让保险公司评估全美各城镇与城市的火灾损失风险。
公司成立于 19 世纪，到 20 世纪初期已成为这个利基市场无可争议的领导者。在巅峰时期，超过 85% 的火灾保险市场依赖 Sanborn 的地图。其专有的实地调查与标准化格式赋予它近乎垄断的地位。数十年来，它都是一台现金制造机。
然而，到 1950 年代末，情况逆转。保险公司开始使用自有的风险数据，新技术与内部制图方法逐渐侵蚀 Sanborn 的地位。营收停滞，营运业务缓慢但稳定地衰退。
对外部投资人来说，Sanborn 看起来是一家已过巅峰、缺乏成长且前景不明的公司。结果，股票长期被冷落、乏人问津。
隐藏的投资组合
吸引巴菲特的并不是地图业务，而是 Sanborn 多年来如何处理其保留盈余。
就像当时许多历史悠久的工业企业一样，Sanborn 悄悄累积了一个庞大的投资组合——蓝筹股与政府债券，由董事会自行管理。这个投资组合相对于公司市值已膨胀到相当可观的规模。
巴菲特的分析简单却有力：
Sanborn 的投资组合价值约为每股 65 美元。
股票却只以每股 45 美元交易。
这意味着市场给营运业务赋予的价值是每股负 20 美元。
换句话说，投资人用 45 美元买到 65 美元的易于估值、可变现的证券，还附送整个地图业务。事实上，他们等于还被付钱去接手它。
上面这篇读过后，看楠梓电肯定有种熟悉感
回到楠梓电，如果你把楠梓电的转投资沪电股份视为本业，那么他就是一间获利 YoY 40%以上，本益比13倍的公司，这样贵吗？我是觉得很便宜
那如果你换个角度，认为沪电股份应该要视为业外
那就可以套用到上面提到的例子
楠梓电持有的是沪电股份股票，每股70.9人民币，相当于每股305.575元，楠梓电流通在外股数1.82亿股，持有沪电股份股票2.1亿股，相当于每股楠梓电持有沪电股份1.15股
楠梓电的投资组合价值约为每股362元，每股总负债30元
股票却只以每股99元交易
巴菲特跟李禄等投资人都做过这样的投资，既然台湾的资本市场还有这类型投资机会，价值价格之间的差距230%，甚至比巴菲特那时投资的50%还要大非常多，如果抱着“如果投资那么简单的话，那谁亏钱？”的想法的话，那这种地上没人捡的钞票，就留给价值投资的人捡吧。
进退场机制：
221以上随意出，不停损