原文标题：
Fed's Powell says 'time has come' to begin cutting interest rates
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/1bex29
发布时间：
2024/08/23 10:00pm
记者署名：
Myles Udland and Jennifer Schonberger
原文内容：
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent a straightforward message to markets
in a key speech on Friday, saying "the time has come" for the central bank to
begin lowering interest rates.
Speaking at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole,
Powell said: "The time has come for policy to adjust."
"The direction of travel is clear," Powell added, "and the timing and pace of
rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance
of risks."
Powell's speech comes just over three weeks out from the Fed's Sept. 17-18
meeting, which should see the central bank announce its first interest rate
cut since 2020.
Powell acknowledged recent softness in the labor market in his speech and
said the Fed does not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market
conditions."
The July jobs report rattled markets earlier this month, revealing there were
just 114,000 jobs added to the economy last month while the unemployment rate
rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. Data earlier this week also
showed that 818,000 fewer people were employed in the US economy as of March,
suggesting reports have been overstating the strength of the job market over
the last year.
"It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated
inflationary pressures anytime soon," Powell said.
Ahead of Powell's speech, investors had priced in nearly 100% odds the Fed
would lower rates next month, with odds on a cut of 0.25% vs. 0.50% standing
at roughly two to one.
"Four and a half years after COVID-19’s arrival, the worst of the
pandemic-related economic distortions are fading," Powell said.
"Inflation has declined significantly...Our objective has been to restore
price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp
increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes
when inflation expectations were less well anchored. While the task is not
complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome."
Powell's remarks on Friday were reminiscent of those he delivered at Jackson
Hole in 2022, in which the Fed chair offered a direct assessment of the
economic outlook and, at the time, the need for additional rate increases.
FILE PHOTO: Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve walks in Teton
National Park where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the
Jackson Hole Economic Symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26,
2022. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve walks in Teton National Park
where financial leaders from around the world gathered for the Jackson Hole
Economic Symposium outside Jackson, Wyoming, U.S., August 26, 2022.
REUTERS/Jim Urquhart (Reuters / Reuters)
"At this podium two years ago, I discussed the possibility that addressing
inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower
growth," Powell said.
"Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession
and a lengthy period of high unemployment. I expressed our unconditional
commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the
job is done."
Friday's speech more or less suggests that job is indeed done.
"All told, the healing from pandemic distortions, our efforts to moderate
aggregate demand, and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to
put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2
percent objective," Powell said.
美国联邦储备主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在周五的一次重要讲话中向市场传
递了明确的信息，表示“时机已经成熟”，联邦储备将开始降低利率。
在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行于杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上，鲍威尔说：“政策调整
的时机已经到来。”
鲍威尔补充说：“前进的方向很明确，利率削减的时间和速度将取决于未来的数据、经济
前景的演变以及风险的平衡。”
鲍威尔的讲话距离联邦储备委员会9月17-18日的会议仅有三周多的时间，届时联邦储备可
能宣布自2020年以来的首次降息。
鲍威尔在讲话中承认近期劳动力市场疲软，并表示联邦储备“不寻求或欢迎劳动力市场条
件的进一步降温。”
本月早些时候发布的7月就业报告震撼了市场，报告显示上个月仅增加了114,000个就业机
会，失业率上升至4.3%，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。本周早些时候的数据还显示，截
至3月，美国经济中的就业人数减少了818,000人，这表明报告在过去一年中可能高估了就
业市场的强劲程度。
鲍威尔说：“劳动力市场不太可能成为通胀压力的主要来源。”
在鲍威尔的讲话之前，投资者几乎已经确信联邦储备下月将降息，市场预计降息0.25%的
概率大约是降息0.50%的两倍。
鲍威尔说：“新冠疫情到来四年半后，与疫情相关的经济扭曲正在消退。”
“通胀显著下降……我们的目标是恢复物价稳定，同时保持强劲的劳动力市场，避免像以
往通胀预期不稳定时出现的失业率大幅上升的情况。尽管任务尚未完成，但我们在实现这
一目标方面已经取得了相当大的进展。”
鲍威尔周五的讲话让人联想到他在2022年杰克逊霍尔的发言，当时这位联邦储备主席对经
济前景进行了直接评估，并强调了需要进一步加息的必要性。
“两年前在这个讲台上，我讨论了应对通胀可能带来的一些痛苦，包括失业率上升和经济
增长放缓。”鲍威尔说。
“有些人认为，控制通胀需要经济衰退和长期的高失业率。我们表达了对完全恢复物价稳
定的无条件承诺，并坚持不懈直到完成这项任务。”
周五的讲话基本上表明，这项任务确实已经完成。
“总而言之，疫情扭曲的愈合、我们控制总需求的努力以及预期的稳定，已共同促使通胀
逐渐朝着我们2%的目标迈进。”鲍威尔说。
心得/评论：
结论，你各位等的降息时刻来啦，多蛙债挖空挖
准备好了吗，礼拜一 一根