标题：Golden Era for Shipping Seen Ahead as Geopolitics Boosts Pricing
连结：https://reurl.cc/mMNb7A
来源：Bloomberg 彭博社
记者：By Alex Longley and Aine Quinn
内容：
If there was a universal theme at the parties, presentations and meetings in t
he world’s shipping capital Athens this week, it’s that bad times are good f
or business.
That’s to say that geopolitical conflicts and doubts about the supply of new
ships mean shipowners are bracing for a prolonged earnings boom.
Andy Dacy, managing director and group head of the global transportation group
at JPMorgan Asset Management — whose multi-billion dollar porftolio includes
extensive investments in the maritime industry, encapsulated it best.
“Thinking about shipping over the next 10-15 years, one could argue despite t
he fact that we have these challenges that we are moving into a golden era alb
eit underpinned by difficult dark things,” he said at a forum organized by Ca
pital Link during the Posidonia shipping week.
The cost of hiring ships has been about a third higher than the average for th
e last ten years so far in 2024, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd.,
a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker, propelled in part by ships sailing
thousands of miles extra to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. Similiarly, Russia
’s invasion of Ukraine has led to trade dislocations that are forcing oil tan
kers on far longer voyages than would otherwise be the case.
Speaking at events organized as part of the Posidonia conference in Athens, so
me executives said they were eying a potentially protracted era of higher earn
ings, based in part on a bet that the global geopolitical environment will rem
ain more dangerous for longer, and a supply of new ships that remains relative
ly low.
In every private conversation, it was the recurring theme. Some said the troub
led geopolitical times are good for business now, while others said they don’
t see an end in sight to current disruptions.
In addition to rising geopolitical risk, owners have another reason to be bull
ish.
Although there has been some ordering of new ships as earnings soar — causing
some nerves about whether a boom can truly be sustained — by historical sta
ndards, the pace of buying has been relatively subdued given strong freight ma
rkets.
That’s in large part because shipowners aren’t sure what the fuel that will
replace traditional oil propulsion will be, meaning that vessel orders haven’
t accumulated in the same way as during shipping’s last great boom period in
2008.
“We have not really seen any alternative fuel that is either available, or ve
ry promising for the future,” said Ioannis Alafouzos, chairman of Okeanis Eco
Tankers Corp. “We are quite pessimistic about alternative fuels in fact. Fra
nkly speaking, we do not know where we are going, so for the time being we are
sticking with conventional engines.”
Some argue that rates are currently so good, that shipping’s efforts to decar
bonize are also likely to slow. That’s because such high earnings offer littl
e incentive to put ships in dockyards and carry out work that would make them
ready to burn cleaner fuels, according to DNV Maritime.
Even this week, as shipowners and brokers discussed the outlook for the market
on the Mediterranean coastline, Houthi rebels continued to fire salvos of mis
siles at vessels in the Red Sea.
One Greek owner said he expects that the impact of the attacks on shipping in
the region could be felt even more acutely in the second half of the year for
container and bulk commodity ships as those fleets get even more stretched out
.
That leaves owners bracing for a world that is more volatile for longer.
“At what point do black swans become not black swans?” Hing Chao, executive
chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, which owns a fleet of oil t
ankers and commodity carriers, said at the Capital Link Forum. “We’re reachi
ng that point in the world unfortunately. As far as shipping is concerned I th
ink in the short-to-medium any kind of disruption would be beneficial to shipp
ing, but medium-to-long term it’s bad for everybody.”
Chat GPT翻译：
如果说本周在世界航运之都雅典举行的派对、演讲和会议上有一个普遍主题，那就是坏时
期对生意有利。
也就是说，地缘政治冲突和对新船供应的疑虑意味着船东们正在为一个持续的盈利繁荣期
做准备。
摩根大通资产管理公司全球运输组主管Andy Dacy最能总结这一点。他在Posidonia航运周
期间由Capital Link组织的论坛上说：“考虑到未来10-15年的航运业，尽管我们面临这
些挑战，但可以说我们正在进入一个黄金时代，尽管它是由困难和黑暗的事情支撑著。”
根据全球最大船舶经纪公司Clarkson Research Services Ltd的数据，2024年船舶租赁成
本比过去十年的平均水平高出约三分之一，部分原因是船舶航行数千英里以避开红海的攻
击。同样，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰导致的贸易中断迫使油轮进行比平时更长的航行。
在雅典Posidonia会议期间举行的活动上，一些高管表示，他们看好一个潜在的高盈利时
代，这部分基于全球地缘政治环境将持续更长时间的风险， 并且预期新船供应仍将保
持相对较低。
在每一次私人对话中，这都是反复出现的主题。一些人说当前的地缘政治动荡对生意有利
，而另一些人则认为目前的中断没有结束的迹象。
除了地缘政治风险上升，船东们还有另一个乐观的理由。尽管随着收益飙升，有些人订购
了新船，这让一些人对繁荣能否持续感到紧张，但从历史标准来看，鉴于运费市场强劲，
购船的步伐仍然相对缓慢。
这主要是因为船东们不确定将替代传统石油推进的新燃料是什么，这意味着船舶订单不像
2008年航运业上一次大繁荣时那样积累。
Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp.董事长Loannis Alafouzos说：“我们并没有看到任何可用或
非常有前景的替代燃料。事实上，我们对替代燃料相当悲观。坦率地说，我们不知道我们
的替代方向，所以目前我们仍然使用传统引擎。”
一些人认为，目前的运费率如此之好，以至于航运业的减碳努力也可能会放缓。DNV Mari
time指出，这是因为如此高的收益使船舶进入船坞并进行准备燃烧更清洁燃料的工作缺乏
激励。
即使在本周，当船东和经纪人在地中海沿岸讨论市场前景时，胡塞叛军继续在红海对船只
发射导弹。一位希腊船东表示，他预计这些攻击对该地区航运的影响可能在今年下半年对
集装箱和散装货船更加明显，因为这些船队将更加分散。
这让船东们为一个更长期的波动世界做好准备。
“黑天鹅事件什么时候不再是黑天鹅事件？” Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdin
gs（拥有一支油轮和货物运输船队）的执行董事长赵卿在Capital Link论坛上说。“不幸
的是，我们正处于这样的世界。就航运而言，我认为在短期到中期，任何形式的中断对航
运有利，但从中长期来看，这对所有人都是不利的。”
心得：
大摩前阵子发新闻不是看衰航运吗？小摩怎么又看好了？
看起来目前促使运价上涨的地缘政治问题
追根究底背后都有美国在搞事
1.俄乌战争
2.以巴冲突
3.中美贸易战
美国玩争霸，航运水手在旁边喝汤
谢谢美国爸爸请客！
拜登我的超人！
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