原文标题：
Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation
原文连结：
https://cnb.cx/3ILSXre
发布时间：
PUBLISHED WED, FEB 22 20232:01 PM ES
记者署名：
Jeff Cox
原文内容：
-While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most
of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern
over inflation is high.
-Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated.
That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to
continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.”
Federal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting indicated that there
are signs inflation is coming down, but not enough to counter the need for
more interest rate increases, meeting minutes released Wednesday showed.
While the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting concluded with a smaller rate hike than most
of those implemented since early 2022, officials stressed that their concern
over inflation is high.
Inflation “remained well above” the Fed’s 2% target, the minutes stated.
That came with labor markets that “remained very tight, contributing to
continuing upward pressures on wages and prices.“
Consequently, the Fed approved a 0.25 percentage point rate increase that was
the smallest hike since the first March 2022, taking the fed funds rate to a
target range of 4.5%-4.75%. But the minutes stated that the reduced pace came
with a high level of concern that inflation was still a threat.
“Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months
showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but
stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range
of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained
downward path,” the minutes said.
The summary repeated that members believe “ongoing” rate hikes will be
necessary. Though the quarter-point hike received unanimous approval, the
minutes noted that not everyone was on board.
A “few” members said they wanted a half-point, or 50 basis points, hike
that would show even greater resolve to get inflation down.
Since the meeting, regional presidents James Bullard of St. Louis and Loretta
Mester of Cleveland have said they were among the group that wanted the more
aggressive move. The minutes, however did not elaborate on how many a “few”
were nor which Federal Open Market Committee members wanted the half-point
increase.
“The participants favoring a 50-basis point increase noted that a larger
increase would more quickly bring the target range close to the levels they
believed would achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, taking into account
their views of the risks to achieving price stability in a timely way,” the
minutes said.
Since the meeting, Fed officials have emphasized the need to stay vigilant
even while expressing optimism that recent inflation data has been
encouraging.
In a CNBC interview Wednesday, Bullard repeated his belief that going higher
sooner would be more effective. But even with his push for more aggressive
near-term policy, he said he thinks the peak, or terminal, rate should be
around 5.375%, about in line with market pricing.
Economic data from January show inflation running at a lower pace than its
summer 2022 peak but is still percolating.
The consumer price index rose 0.5% from December and is up 6.4% from the same
point last year. The producer price index, which measures input costs at the
wholesale level, rose 0.7% on the month and 6% annually. Both readings were
above Wall Street expectations.
The labor market also is hot, indicating that Fed hikes, while hitting the
housing market and some other rate-sensitive areas, have yet to seep through
to much of the economy.
Even with the comments from Mester and Bullard, market pricing still
indicates the strong likelihood of another quarter-point increase in March,
followed by a couple more to bring the funds rate to a peak of 5.25%-5.5%. If
the rate would land around the midpoint of that target, it would be the
highest funds rate since 2001.
Markets are concerned that if the Fed moves too quickly or too far, it could
tip the economy into a recession.
The minutes noted that “some” members see the risk of recession as “
elevated.” Other officials publicly have said they think the Fed can avoid a
recession and achieve a “soft landing” for the economy that sees growth
slowing considerably but not contracting.
“Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks
for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high,” the
minutes said.
Among the risk factors cited were the war in Ukraine, the economic reopening
in China and the possibility that the labor market could remain tighter for
longer than expected.