原文标题：
California and the Midwest face ‘high risk’ of electricity shortages in
next five years
原文连结：
https://tinyurl.com/tybhnmzw
发布时间：
THU, DEC 15 20225:18 PM EST
记者署名：
Catherine Clifford
原文内容：
America’s electrical grid is being pushed to the breaking point, and
California, parts of the Midwest and parts of the South Central United States
are at “high risk” for energy shortfalls, says the not-for-profit
organization charged with managing and evaluating the grid.
美国负责评估电网的NGO组织表示，电网正在被推向崩溃点，其中在加州、中西区以及中南
区属于高风险电力短缺区域。
“High risk” regions, marked in red on the map, may see shortfalls at “
normal peak conditions,” according to the 54th annual assessment from the
North American Electric Reliability Corporation released Thursday.
北美电力可靠组织第54分年度评估表示，被标上红色的高风险区域极有可能在"正常尖峰"
状态下出现能源短缺
https://imgur.com/LDtIaW6.jpg
The reasons for the shortfalls vary.
短缺原因各不相同
In the Midwestern states and Ontario, more power generation is being retired
than is being added back online, NERC’s Mark Olson told reporters Thursday.
Projected energy shortfalls have been projected in that region since 2018,
Olson said.
中西区和安大略省问题在于退役的机组装置容量比新上线的机组还多
In California, the risk is due to a “variable resource mix” and “demand
variability,” Olson said. That means there’s a lot of renewable energy in
the state, and its generation is not coordinated with the times people need
the most energy. NERC predicts that demand could fall below supply for 10
hours during peak summer months in 2024.
加州问题则是多样化来源和需求变动，再生能源无法跟上需求面的时间点
Much of the rest of the Midwest and the rest of the Western part of the
United States are at “elevated risk” (yellow on the map), which means
shortfalls may occur in extreme conditions, like during severe weather or hot
spells where everyone is running air conditioners. In New England, the
elevated risk comes in the winter when people use generators that depend on
natural gas.
中西区和西部多数都处于黄色风险区域，意味着在极端状态下会碰到能源短缺
例如糟糕天气或炎热天气下大家会开空调
在新英格兰冬天使用天然气发电会造成风险
“The natural gas capacity can be insufficient for generators, leading to use
of backup fuels, stored liquid fuels, and there are risks to being able to
maintain sufficient fuel storage during long duration events,” Olson said.
天然气存量不足，假如冬天的恶劣气候持续就有可能发生能源短缺
The Southwest could also suffer when demand is high and wind energy
generation is low in the region.
西南区也有可能因为风力发电效率低而需求高而产生问题
Extraordinary times
非常时期
“We are living in extraordinary times from an electric industry perspective,
” John Moura, the director of reliability assessment at NERC, said on
Thursday.
NERC主管表示，我们正处于一个能源的非常时期
Increasing awareness of climate change is pushing utilities to phase out
fossil fuel-based sources of energy that generate carbon emissions.
Renewables like wind and solar don’t contribute to climate change, but have
period where they don’t generate any energy (when the sky is dark or the
wind is still).
气候变迁导致能源公司逐渐淘汰化石燃料，但再生能源并不是稳定的来源
(如天黑或是无风时)
Renewables also don’t necessarily map to where demand is, unlike fossil
fuels, which can be transported and burned near where they’re consumed. That
means more transmission lines are needed, and building them can take from
seven to 15 years, Moura says.
同时再生能源并不能像化石燃料透过运输运到需求所在地，而是需要透过电网
但电网建造需要7~15年
Another area of note, according to NERC, is the increased power demand of
cryptocurrency mining and the need to plan for energy usage there.
挖矿也是能源消耗增加的原因之一
Then there’s the weather. It’s tricky to tie particular extreme weather
events to climate change, but it’s generally true that a warmer world is a
wetter one, according to NASA climate scientists.
然后是天气，NASA认为未来会越来越温暖潮湿
“Year after year, we’ve seen extreme weather leading to increased
reliability impacts. And so when we look at events over the last several
years, it’s clear that the bulk power system is impacted by extreme weather
more than it ever has,” Moura told reporters on the media call.
"每年我们都看到可靠性受到极端气候的影响增加"
大装置容量电力系统受到极端气候影响比过去任何时间都多
These factors are placing increased strain on the grid, and NERC
representatives urge grid operators to be conservative in their planning.
这些状态都让电网压力越来越大，NERC催促电力公司加强电网规划
“Managing the pace of our generation retirement and our resource mix changes
to ensure we have enough energy and essential services are an absolute
necessity,” Moura told reporters on the call. “We need to work with the
entire ecosystem to make sure we’re managing that base, and to be very clear
that we’re not retiring generation prematurely — that is done in an orderly
fashion and especially in areas that are right on the edge.”
规划这一代人退休和来源组合变化来达到稳定能源服务是重要的
管理上必须整合整个体系为基础，并确定我们不会过早淘汰上一个世代设备
For its annual long-term electricity security assessment, NERC looks at the
coming decade, but energy and capacity risk assessment goes out for the
coming five years, from 2023 to 2027. There are too many moving parts and
uncertainties for a risk assessment past the next five years to be
worthwhile, according to NERC.
NERC长期年度电力稳定评估是基于未来十年，但能源和装置容量风险则是未来五年
也就是2023~2027
2027年后的状态有很多不确定性，但未来五年的评估是有高度可能性
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission certified NERC to measure and
enforce safety standards for the energy grid in the United States in 2006.
NERC is subject to the oversight of FERC, which is the federal governmental
agency in charge of regulating interstate electricity transmission.
NERC是美国联邦机构FERC授权评估美国能源稳定的组织
心得/评论：
美国电网压力看来也是很大，加州再生能源和需求时间差问题也是他们沿役核电原因之一
图中很明显看到红色区域说明
CA: 供给和需求的时间差(再生能源问题)可能造成1-10小时的短缺
MISO: 1300MW短缺来自于需求上升以及机组汰换容量不足
Ontario: 1700MW缺口在2025年，和机组退休速度以及核电维修状态有关
再生能源对电网造成的压力比起传统石化燃料、核能都还高上许多
对能源公司的规划以及应变也是考验