原文标题：
Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.
原文连结：https://ibit.ly/RlGO
发布时间：Feb. 3, 2022 8:25 am ET
原文内容：
Why the Winners and Losers of Meta’s Bombshell Earnings Will Become Clearer
Today.
为什么FB惊人收益的赢家和输家今天会变得更加清晰
Facebook‘s parent company is definitely one of the most unfriended on Wall
Street right now.
Facebook绝对是华尔街目前最不友好的公司之一.
Meta Platforms (ticker: FB), which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is
seeing its stock go into freefall. The shares were more than 22% in lower in
premarket trading Thursday. If the shares finish more than 18.96% lower in
regular trading in the day ahead, it will be the worst one-day plunge for the
stock in the company’s history.
拥有 Facebook、 Instagram 和 WhatsApp 的 Meta Platforms (股票代码: FB)的股价正
在直线下跌.周四盘前交易中,该公司股价下跌超过22% .如果该公司股票在当天的正常交
易中下跌超过18.96% ,这将是该公司历史上最严重的一天暴跌.
To blame are the company’s latest quarterly financial results.
该公司最新的季度财务业绩是罪魁祸首.
While sales came in ahead of estimates, earnings were weaker than expected
and the group’s guidance was truly dismal: Revenue is expected to come in
between $27 billion and $29 billion in the current quarter. Representing
comparatively anemic annual growth of 3% to 11%, it’s not what’s usually
expected from the company.
尽管销售额超出预期,但收益低于预期,而且该集团的业绩指引确实令人沮丧: 本季度收入
预计在270亿美元至290亿美元之间.相对来说,年增长率在3% 到11% 之间,这并不是通常对
公司的预期.
Meta cited headwinds from a number of factors, key among which was lower user
impressions hitting advertising dollars. Meta also saw issues with pricing
that stem from disruptive new rules that Apple (AAPL) has introduced for
mobile ads, as well as lower ad budgets as businesses face cost inflation and
supply chain disruptions.
FB列举了一系列因素带来的不利影响,其中最关键的是降低了广告收入所带来的用户印
象.梅塔也看到了定价问题,这些问题源于苹果公司(Apple)为移动广告引入的颠覆性新规
定,以及随着企业面临成本膨胀和供应链中断而降低的广告预算.
Wall Street will be closely watching what happens next, and not just because
it could have a wider impact on the stock market. Two questions, raised by
Barron’s Eric J. Savitz on Wednesday, need to be answered: Is social media
use in decline generally, or just at Meta? And is ad spending dropping, or
just shifting away from Facebook?
华尔街将密切关注接下来会发生什么,而不仅仅是因为它可能对股市产生更广泛的影响.巴
伦周三的埃里克 · j · 萨维茨提出了两个问题: 社交媒体的使用是普遍下降,还是仅仅
在梅塔？广告支出是在下降,还是仅仅是从 Facebook 转移？
We may have some clarity on those two questions today. Social media peers
Snap (SNAP) and Pinterest (PINS) are set to report earnings after the close,
and could give clues as to whether Meta’s issues are isolated to Meta—or if
there will be broader winners and losers.
今天我们可能对这两个问题有了一些了解.社交媒体同行 SNAP (SNAP)和 Pinterest
(pin)将在收盘后公布收益,这可能会提供一些线索,表明 Meta 的问题是否只局限于
Meta,或者是否会有更广泛的赢家和输家.
Is Social Media in Decline?
社交媒体正在衰落吗？
“We expect continued headwinds from both increased competition for people’s
time,” Meta said in its earnings release.
“我们预计,两者都将带来持续的不利因素,即人们时间竞争的加剧,”Meta 在其财报中表
示.
It’s possible that people are using social media less with the darkest days
of the Covid-19 pandemic behind them. More likely is that there’s a new kid
on the block: TikTok, the video-based social media powerhouse owned by China’
s ByteDance.
人们很可能正在减少对社交媒体的使用,因为2019冠状病毒疾病流行病最黑暗的日子已经
过去了.但更有可能的情况是,影片社交媒体巨头抖音(TikTok)占据越来越多的份额,而它
由中国字节跳动(ByteDance)拥有.
Expected to hit ad impressions in the current quarter, Meta said, is “a
shift of engagement within our apps towards video surfaces like Reels, which
monetize at lower rates.” Meta’s inability to monetize video at the same
rate as it does other elements, like Feed and Stories, is a Meta problem. But
the fact that it’s even chasing a video strategy suggests a desire to catch
up with TikTok.
预计在当前季度达到广告印象,Meta 说,是“我们的应用程式的参与转向影片表面,如
Reels,这是在较低的利率赚钱.”无法像 Feed 和 Stories 这样的其他元素一样以同样
的速度从影片中赚钱,这是一个 Meta 问题.但事实上,它甚至在追逐一个影片策略暗示了
一种追赶抖音的愿望.
These are similar pressures to those felt by Snap, whose Snapchat platform
has a large overlap with the TikTok user base. Snap stock was downgraded last
week by broker and investment bank Wedbush, with analysts citing TikTok’s
audience share putting Snap’s engagement and ad dollars at risk.
这些压力与 Snap 感受到的类似,后者的 Snapchat 平台与 TikTok 用户群有很大的重叠.
上周,经纪商和投资银行 Wedbush 下调了 Snap 股票的评级,分析师引用 TikTok 的观众
份额,将 Snap 的参与度和广告收入置于风险之中.
As for Pinterest, the image sharing platform, it has faced its own problems
with declining engagement, earning itself a similar downgrade last month amid
data showing that users had left the platform.
至于图片分享平台 Pinterest,它自己也面临着用户参与度下降的问题,上个月,由于资料
显示用户已经离开了该平台,它也遭到了类似的下调.
Snap and Pinterest earnings Thursday will hopefully shed more light on
current social media trends. The problem: If both companies see declines in
engagement and a weaker outlook, it could be hard to identify a coherent
reason why, if one exists.
周四的 Snap 和 Pinterest 收益将有望让人们对当前的社交媒体趋势有更多的了解.问题
在于: 如果两家公司都看到员工参与度下降,前景黯淡,那么很难找到一个连贯的理由,如
果存在这样一个理由的话.
The fact that TikTok’s parent company is private makes understanding whether
that platform is seeing a massive boom at the cost of Facebook, Snapchat, and
Pinterest more difficult.
事实上, 抖音的母公司是私人公司,这使得人们更加难以理解这个平台是否看到了以
Facebook、 Snapchat 和 Pinterest 为代价的巨大繁荣.
Analysts at Swiss bank UBS, led by Lloyd Walmsley, said their view was one of
“a world broadly moving away from Meta’s strengths, as content consumption
shifts towards creator content and private messaging and away from public
sharing, effectively eroding the company’s moats.”
由劳埃德‧沃姆斯利(Lloyd Walmsley)领导的瑞士银行(UBS)的分析师表示,他们的观点是
,“随着内容消费向创作者内容和私人资讯转移,而不是公开分享,这个世界正在远离
Meta 的优势,有效地侵蚀著公司的护城河.”
Is Mobile Advertising Sunk?
移动广告是否已经没落？
Meta’s warning that businesses were reducing ad budgets didn’t ring quite
true. After all, Google and YouTube parent Alphabet (GOOGL) posted blowout
earnings this week on the back of strong advertising.
关于企业正在减少广告预算的警告并不完全正确.毕竟,在强劲的广告支持下,谷歌和
YouTube 的母公司 Alphabet 本周公布了惊人的收益.
Instead, what may be at the root of Meta’s pricing problems are rules
introduced last year by Apple, which require apps on its operating system to
make users opt-in to advertising tracking. It’s not a popular choice, and
media companies have suffered as a result of not being able to provide
advertising clients with thorough data on ad impacts.
相反,Meta 定价问题的根源可能是苹果去年推出的规定,该规定要求其作业系统上的应用
程式让使用者选择加入广告跟踪.这不是一个受欢迎的选择,媒体公司也因为不能向广告客
户提供关于广告影响的完整资料而遭受损失.
One of the reasons behind Snap’s downgrade was expected headwinds to revenue
from these changes. Snap’s earnings could further cement the narrative that
it and Meta, which are heavily reliant on direct-response mobile ads, are in
for an uphill battle.
Snap 下调评级背后的原因之一是,预计这些变化将给公司收入带来不利影响.Snap 的收入
可能会进一步巩固这样一种说法,即该公司和严重依赖直接回应移动广告的 Meta 正在进
行一场艰苦的战斗.
Who Might Be the Emerging Winners and Losers?
谁可能是新兴的赢家和输家？
Assuming that social media use at-large is not in decline, it’s likely that
ByteDance and its winning TikTok formula will continue to pose a challenge to
Meta and Snap, and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Twitter and Pinterest.
假设社交媒体的使用并没有下降,那么 ByteDance 和它的获胜的 TikTok 公式很可能会继
续对 Meta 和 Snap 构成挑战,或许还会对 Twitter 和 Pinterest 构成一定程度的挑战.
On the advertising front, it could get more complicated. Meta and Snap look
poised for a tough fight to keep ad dollar growth in the face of Apple’s new
regime, as does Pinterest. Snap stock was down 16% in the U.S. premarket
Thursday and Pinterest fell more than 9%.
在广告方面,情况可能会变得更加复杂.面对苹果的新政策,Meta 和 Snap 看起来准备进行
一场艰苦的战斗,以保持广告美元的增长,Pinterest 也是如此.周四美国盘前,Snap 股价
下跌16% ,Pinterest 股价下跌超过9% .
As Barron’s reported last year, when the impacts of the new rules become
more widely known, Twitter may be relatively buoyant because it relies more
heavily on brand advertising. In addition, Amazon (AMZN) could be a winner
because it has its own ad ecosystem, and could snap up direct-response
advertisers who may be looking to shift away from Meta and Snap.
正如《巴伦周刊》去年报导的那样,当新规则的影响变得更加广为人知时,Twitter 可能会
相对活跃,因为它更加依赖品牌广告.此外,亚马逊(AMZN)可能成为赢家,因为它有自己的广
告生态系统,并可以抢购直接回应广告客户谁可能希望从 Meta 和 Snap 转移.
Alphabet could benefit from the same trend as Amazon; the company’s
earnings, at least, suggest it won’t be a loser—it relies on advertising
via its dominant Google search platform and via YouTube.
Alphabet 可能会从与亚马逊同样的趋势中受益; 至少该公司的收益表明,它不会成为输家
ーー它依赖于通过其占主导地位的谷歌搜索平台和 YouTube 进行广告宣传.
More immediately, a spate of advertising infrastructure stocks are getting
slammed. Trade Desk (TTD) was down 7% in the U.S. premarket, with Magnite
(MGNI) falling 5.5% and PubMatic (PUBM) 5% lower. Roku (ROKU), which relies
on targeted advertising, but not on Apple’s platform, fell more than 4%.
更为直接的是,一连串的广告基础设施类股正遭受重创.交易台(TTD)在美国上市前下跌了
7% ,magniite (MGNI)下跌了5.5% ,PubMatic (PUBM)下跌了5% .依赖定向广告而非苹果平
台的 ROKU (ROKU)股价下跌超过4% .
心得/评论： ※必需填写满30字，无意义者板规处分
FB归咎于广告商因为大环境因素缩手
而Google显示并非如此
今晚的SNAP财报就会显示FB到底有没有说实话.
PINS也财报.但其实和上述的社交行为天差地远就是了.不太确定能不能拿来类比.