原文标题：
EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil's real, Turkish lira rise after rate hikes; Russian
rouble falls
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/E2bxYK
发布时间：
Fri, March 19, 2021, 3:33 AM
原文内容：
* Real jumps as c.bank hikes by 75 bps
* Colombian peso reverses early declines
* Russian rouble resumes slide after Putin responds to Biden
* Brazilian carrier Gol drops, cuts outlook (Adds comments, updates prices
throughout) By Susan Mathew and Shreyashi Sanyal March 18
(Reuters) - The Brazilian real and Turkey's lira outperformed broader
emerging market peers on Thursday, following interest rate hikes by their
respective central banks, while rising geopolitical tensions weighed on
Russia's rouble. The lira extended gains to 2.6% against the greenback after
a hefty 200-basis-point (bps) hike, while Brazil's real was up 0.6%, trimming
early gains of almost 2%, after the central bank delivered a
larger-than-expected 75-bps raise after the market closed overnight.
"The interest rate differentials for Turkey are outstanding, the policy rate
is now at 19% and since the lira has been battered since mid-February, long
lira bets could grow," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Delivering its first interest rate hike in nearly six years, Brazil's
rate-setting committee, Copom, raised the key rate to 2.75%, and flagged a
similar move in May to fight inflation despite rising economic uncertainty.
"We expect the move will prove effective in anchoring inflation expectations
and supporting the credibility of the (Brazilian) Central Bank," said Samar
Maziad, senior sovereign analyst at Moody's.
"However, in a context of a worsening pandemic and given the slow pace of
vaccination, higher interest rates add downside risks to economic growth
prospects for the rest of the year." The real is among the worst performing
emerging market currencies, with worries about fiscal spending, political
interference and rising inflation pushing it around 7% lower for the year.
Russia's rouble traded 0.7% lower after
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with a quip to U.S. counterpart
Joe Biden's warning of consequences for alleged Russian involvement in the
2020 U.S. elections, saying he wished the U.S. president good health.
Washington is expected to impose new sanctions on Moscow as soon as next
week.
The rouble had fallen 1% on Wednesday. Declining oil prices also weighed on
the crude-exporting nation's currency. By afternoon trading, Colombia's peso
rose 0.7%, while Mexico's peso edged 0.2% lower after data showed the
country's economy contracted by 4.0% in February compared to the same month a
year earlier.
Brazilian stocks fell 1.5% as state-owned oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA
and consumer stocks like Magazine Luiza SA and Vale SA. Brazil's largest
airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes fell 6% after the company said it was
cutting its outlook for early 2021.
Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1924 GMT: Stock indexes
Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1345.01 0.16 MSCI LatAm 2317.51
0.31 Brazil Bovespa 114759.40 -1.54 Mexico IPC 47735.42 0.12 Chile IPSA
4878.75 -0.62 Argentina MerVal 49020.63 -1.795 Colombia COLCAP 1320.69 -1.7
Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.5581 0.48 Mexico peso 20.4622
-0.36 Chile peso 719.4 0.40 Colombia peso 3545.1 0.68 Peru sol 3.7078 -0.13
Argentina peso 91.2800 -0.08 (interbank) Argentina peso 141 2.13 (parallel)
(Reporting by Shreyashi Sanyal and Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; editing by
Jonathan Oatis, Alexandra Hudson)
机翻如下：
*实际汇率随着银行升息75个基点而大幅上涨
*哥伦比亚比索扭转了早前的跌势
*普京对拜登做出回应后，俄罗斯卢布恢复下滑
*巴西航空公司Gol下跌，削减了前景
路透社18日电-巴西雷亚尔和土耳其里拉周四跑赢大盘，原因是各自中央银行加息，而地
缘政治紧张局势加剧令俄罗斯卢布受压。在大幅上涨200个基点（bps）后，里拉兑美元的
涨幅扩大至2.6％，而巴西雷亚尔上涨了0.6％，削减了近2％的早期涨幅，此前该国央行
实现了超出预期的涨幅。隔夜市场收盘后上涨了75个基点。
OANDA高级市场分析师爱德华‧莫亚（Edward Moya）表示：“土耳其的利差悬殊，政策利
率目前为19％，而且自2月中旬以来里拉受到打击，长期的里拉赌注可能会增长，”
巴西的利率设定委员会Copom交付了近六年来的首次加息，将关键利率提高到2.75％，并
在5月宣布了类似的举措，尽管经济不确定性不断增加，但仍在抗击通货膨胀。穆迪高级
主权分析师萨玛尔‧马扎德（Samar Maziad）表示：“我们预计此举将证明对稳定通胀预
期和支持（巴西）中央银行的信誉有效。”
“但是，在大流行病恶化和疫苗接种步伐缓慢的情况下，较高的利率给今年余下时间的
经济增长前景带来了下行风险。”雷亚尔是表现最差的新兴市场货币之一，其对财政支出
，政治干预和通货膨胀率的担忧使全年汇率下跌约7％。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔‧普京（Vladimir Putin）对美国总统乔‧拜登（Joe Biden）警
告称涉嫌俄罗斯参与2020年美国大选后果的警告后，俄罗斯卢布下跌0.7％。预计华盛顿
最快将在下周对莫斯科实施新的制裁。
卢布周三下跌了1％。石油价格下跌也打压了原油出口国的货币。午后交易中，哥伦比亚
比索上涨0.7％，而墨西哥比索小幅下跌0.2％，此前有数据显示该国2月份经济同比下降
4.0％。
巴西股市下跌1.5％，原因是国有石油生产商Petroleo Brasileiro SA和Magazine Luiza
SA和Vale SA等消费类股票。巴西最大的航空公司Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes下跌6
％，此前该公司表示将下调2021年初的前景。
格林尼治1924主要拉丁美洲股票指数和货币：
股票指数最新每日百分比变动
MSCI新兴市场1345.01 0.16
MSCI LatAm 2317.51 0.31
巴西Bovespa 114759.40 -1.54
墨西哥IPC 47735.42 0.12
智利IPSA 4878.75 -0.62
阿根廷MerVal 49020.63 -1.795
哥伦比亚COLCAP 1320.69 -1.7
货币最新每日百分比变化
巴西雷亚尔5.5581 0.48
墨西哥比索20.4622 -0.36
智利比索719.4 0.40
哥伦比亚比索3545.1 0.68
秘鲁sol 3.707 -0.1
阿根廷比索91.2800 -0.08（银行间）
阿根廷比索141 2.13（平行）
（Shreyashi Sanyal和Susan Mathew在班加罗尔的报导; Jonathan Oatis，Alexandra
Hudson编辑）
心得/评论：
各国央行为了不造成恐慌，通常会讲得比较保守
同时必须仔细观察市场状况
如果市场反应陷入恐慌，那就会有相当程度的大幅修正
最坏的状况是发生骨牌效应触发断崖式的下跌
当然，也有可能是静水深流的状况。