原文标题：
Why this week’s Fed meeting could be ‘March madness’ for markets
原文连结：
https://reurl.cc/o9YGRj
发布时间：
PUBLISHED MON, MAR 15 20214:19 PM EDTUPDATED MON, MAR 15 20216:14 PM EDT
原文内容：
KEY POINTS
With the economy about to boom, the Fed’s easy policies will be in the
spotlight Wednesday when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the press after
the Fed’s two-day meeting.
The Fed will release new economic and interest rate forecasts, which could
show Fed officials expect to raise rates by 2023.
BlackRock’s Rick Rieder said Powell’s briefing could be “exciting to see”
and the Fed meeting could be the central bank’s “March Madness” for
markets, since the chairman could begin to reveal some views on the future
path of Fed policy.
Odds are high the Fed will move markets this week, no matter how hard it
tries not to.
With the surge in interest rates and rebounding economy, the Fed’s easy
policies are in the spotlight, and increasingly the question has become when
will it consider unwinding them. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to be
asked questions about the Fed’s low interest rate policies and asset
purchases during his press briefing, following the Fed’s two-day meeting
that concludes Wednesday.
Powell is unlikey to be specific but what he says could rock the already
volatile bond market, and that in turn could drive stocks. It could
particularly hit growth stocks, if bond yields begin to rise.
“I think the last press conference, I think I watched with one eye, and
listened with one ear. This one I’m going to be tuned in to every word, and
the markets are going to be tuned in to every word,” said Rick Rieder,
BlackRock’s CIO for global fixed income. “If he says nothing, it will move
markets. If he says a lot it will move markets.”
Rieder said the briefing should be “exciting to see,” and a challenge for
the Fed to potentially begin changing communications on its policy. He said
investors will be parsing every word. “This will be the March Madness,” for
the markets, he said, referring to the highly anticipated collegiate
basketball tournament.
Powell clearly has the ball, and what he decides to say Wednesday will
dictate to edgy markets how soon the Fed might consider paring back its bond
buying and even raising interest rates from zero.
Statement to stay mostly the same
The Federal Open Market Committee will release its statement at 2 p.m. ET
Wednesday, after the meeting, and Fed watchers expect little change in the
text.
But the Fed also releases officials’ latest forecasts for the economy and
interest rates. That could show that most officials would be ready to raise
the fed funds target rate range from zero in 2023, and a few members may even
be ready to raise rates next year.
“We think they will sound a bit more optimistic but still cautious. That
said, we think it will be hard for them to sound as dovish as they have been
just because the facts on the ground are improving,” said Mark Cabana, head
of U.S. short-rate strategy at Bank of America. “As a result of that, we
think they’re going to sound a little less accommodative than the market is
expecting. We think they’re likely to show a hike at the end of 2023.”
Rieder said the Fed’s been steadily steering its easing programs, but now it
needs to begin to communicate that it expects to change policy on both asset
purchases and interest rates. He said the Fed has been explicit in that it
would provide plenty of time between when it starts communicating change and
when it acts.
“It strikes me it’s time,” he said. Rieder said his out-of-consensus view
is that the Fed could start tapering back its bond buying in September or
December, and it needs to begin discussing that now. The Fed buys $80 billion
a month of Treasurys and $40 billion a month of mortgages.
He also said the Fed could also start raising short-term interest rates next
year without hurting the economy. The Fed has not forecast any interest rate
hikes until after 2023, but that could change in its latest forecast.
“They can’t raise short interest rates this year, but as you get into the
second and third quarter of next year, not raising short-term interest rates
would be incongruous with what their economic projections should be,” Rieder
said.
Rates on the rise
The Fed meets against a back drop of rate volatility in the more typically
staid Treasury market. Over the past six weeks, the 10-year yield, which
influences mortgage rates and other loans, has risen from 1.07% to a high of
1.64% last Friday. It was at 1.6% Monday.
The yield, which moves opposite price, has been reacting to a more upbeat
view of the economy, based on the vaccine rollout and Washington’s stimulus
spending. It has also reacted to the idea that inflation could pick up as the
economy roars back. Powell has said the Fed expects to see just a temporary
jump in inflation measures in the spring because of the depressed prices
during the economic shutdown last year.
“They’ve got to start that communication ... the markets are waiting for it,
” Rieder said. “The jumpiness of rates and the volatility in the market is
because we haven’t heard their plan yet.”
Rieder said the Fed could raise interest rates while it is still buying
bonds. He said it may want to shift its purchases more towards the long end
to keep longer term rates low, since they impact mortgages and other loans.
“In their economic projections, their employment projections for next year
is probably going to be 4%. If that’s right, why not? Raising short-end
interest rates and draining some liquidity out of the front part of the yield
curve is not a problem,” he said.
“Times like these call for creativity and innovation,” Rieder said. “They’
ve been remarkably innovative. They’ve provided so much liquidity to the
system, the front end is awash in liquidity and yields are too low, in an
environment where you could have 7% growth this year.”.
In the last forecast, five of 17 members expected a rate hike in 2023, and
just one forecast a hike in 2022. Fed officials provide their rate forecasts
anonymously, on a so-called dot plot.
The Fed has said it would continue its bond purchases until it’s made “
substantial progress” towards its goals.
Cabana said there could be a few officials who now forecast a hike for 2022,
but he doesn’t expect the Fed to embrace that yet. The fed funds futures
market is pricing in close to one hike in 2022 and three hikes by the end of
2023.
“You think if the market is pricing that, and the Fed doesn’t deliver, the
market should be disappointed. We actually think many in the market think the
Fed will push back, and the Fed will tell the market it’s wrong,” said
Cabana. “We don’t think so. We think the Fed will retain the optionality of
having the market price in a rosier outlook. Does the Fed hope the market is
right, or they’re right? The Fed is hoping the market is right because it
wants to achieve its goal sooner. We don’t think the Fed is going to push
back too hard.”
The Fed could say “substantive progress is still some time away,” Cabana
said. He said he does expect the Fed at some point to change the duration of
bonds it is buying and shift towards the long end to keep those rates, like
the 10-year, from rising too much.
机翻如下：
为什么本周美联储会议可能成为市场的“三月疯狂”
关键点：
1.随着经济的蓬勃发展，周三美联储主席杰罗姆‧鲍威尔在联储为期两天的会议后向媒体
发表讲话时，美联储的宽松政策将成为人们关注的焦点。
2.美联储将发布新的经济和利率预测，这可能表明美联储官员希望在2023年之前加息。
3.贝莱德的里克‧里德（Rick Rieder）表示，鲍威尔的通报可能“令人兴奋”，美联储
会议可能是央行对市场的“三月疯狂”，因为董事长可能会开始对美联储政策的未来道路
发表一些看法。
美联储本周将动摇市场的可能性很高，无论它试图采取多大的努力。
随着利率的飙升和经济的反弹，美联储的宽松政策成为人们关注的焦点，越来越多的问题
变成了何时考虑取消这些政策的问题。在周三结束的为期两天的美联储会议之后，美联储
主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上可能会被问到有关美联储的低利率政策和资产购买的问题。
鲍威尔不太可能具体说明，但他说的话可能会动摇本已动荡的债券市场，从而反过来可能
推高股市。如果债券收益率开始上升，这可能特别打击成长型股票。
“我认为上一次新闻发布会是我用一只眼睛观看，然后用一只耳朵听的。贝莱德全球固定
收益部门的首席信息官里克‧里德说：“我将适应每个词，市场将适应每个词。” “如
果他什么都不说，它将带动市场。如果他说很多话，它将带动市场。”
里德表示，简报应该“令人兴奋”，这对美联储可能开始改变其政策沟通构成了挑战。他
说，投资者将分析每一个字。他说：“这将是疯狂的游行”。他指的是备受期待的大学篮
球比赛。
鲍威尔显然有把握，而他决定在周三发表的讲话将使市场前途未卜。美联储可能会考虑在
多长时间内削减其债券购买，甚至将利率从零提高。
声明基本保持不变
联邦公开市场委员会将于下午2点发布声明。美联储会议结束后，美国东部时间星期三，
美联储观察员预计文本不会有太大变化。
但美联储还发布了官员对经济和利率的最新预测。这可能表明大多数官员已准备好在2023
年将联邦基金的目标利率范围从零提高，甚至有少数成员甚至准备在明年加息。
“我们认为他们听起来会更加乐观，但仍要谨慎。话虽如此，我们认为他们很难像过去那
样听起来像鸽派一样，只是因为事实正在改善。”美国银行美国短期利率策略主管马克‧
卡巴纳（Mark Cabana）表示。 “因此，我们认为它们听起来将比市场预期的宽松一些。
我们认为他们很可能在2023年底出现加息。”
里德表示，美联储一直在稳步实施宽松政策，但现在需要开始传达其期望改变资产购买和
利率政策的信息。他说，美联储的明确立场是，它将在交流沟通和采取行动之间提供足够
的时间。
他说：“这时机打到我了”里德表示，他的不一致观点是，美联储可能会在9月或12月开
始缩减其债券购买规模，现在需要开始讨论这一问题。美联储每月购买800亿美元的美国
国债和每月400亿美元的抵押贷款。
他还表示，美联储也可能在明年开始提高短期利率而不会损害经济。美联储直到2023年之
前都没有预测过加息，但是最新的预测可能会改变。
里德说：“他们今年不能提高短期利率，但是当你进入明年第二季度和第三季度时，不提
高短期利率将与他们的经济预期相矛盾。”
利率上升
美联储在较为稳定的国债市场上遇到了利率波动回落的情况。在过去的六周中，影响抵押
贷款利率和其他贷款的10年期国债收益率已从1.07％上升至上周五的1.64％。周一为1.6
％。
根据疫苗的推出和华盛顿的刺激性支出，与价格相反的收益率一直对经济前景持乐观态度
。它还对以下想法做出了反应：随着经济的回升，通货膨胀率可能会上升。鲍威尔曾表示
，由于去年经济停顿期间价格低迷，美联储预计春季的通胀措施将只是暂时性的上涨。
里德说：“他们必须开始这种沟通……市场正在等待它。” “利率的上涨和市场的动荡
是因为我们还没有听到他们的计划。”
里德说，美联储可能仍在购买债券的同时提高利率。他说，它可能希望将其购买更多地向
长期转移，以保持较低的长期利率，因为这会影响抵押贷款和其他贷款。
“在他们的经济预测中，他们对明年的就业预测可能会达到4％。如果是的话，为什么不
呢？提高短期利率和从收益率曲线的前部抽出一些流动性不是问题，”他说。
“像这样的时代需要创造力和创新，”里德说。 “他们非常创新。他们为系统提供了如
此多的流动性，在这种情况下，今年的增长率可能达到7％，前端的流动性充裕，收益率
太低。”
在上一次预测中，17个成员中有5个预期在2023年加息，而只有 1个成员预测在2022年加
息。美联储官员以所谓的点状图匿名提供其利率预测。
美联储表示将继续购买债券，直到朝着目标“取得实质性进展”为止。
卡瓦纳说，现在可能有几位官员预测2022年加息，但他不希望美联储接受这一点。联邦基
金期货市场的价格到2022年将近涨一次，到2023年底将会涨三次。
“您认为，如果市场以这样的价格定价，而美联储未能兑现，那么市场应该会感到失望。
实际上，我们认为市场上的许多人都认为美联储会后退，而美联储会告诉市场这是错误的
。” “我们不这么认为。我们认为美联储将保留市场价格前景乐观的选择权。美联储是
希望市场是对的还是对的？美联储希望市场是正确的，因为它希望早日实现目标。我们认
为美联储不会退缩得太厉害。”
卡巴纳说，美联储可能会说“实质性的进步还需要一段时间。”他说，他确实希望美联储
在某个时候改变其购买债券的期限，并朝着长期目标转移，以防止这些利率（例如10年期
）升得过高。
心得/评论：
FED看起来对于经济前景越来越乐观了
升息的预期也越来越提前
市场将对礼拜三FED老大的谈话拭目以待
ps:"三月疯狂"同时也是美国NCAA一级男篮的双关