1. 叶伦和FED一直的立场都很明确,随便节录一小段文章
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told the Senate banking committee
Thursday that the risks of raising interest rates too soon outweigh the
hazards of acting too late.
If an early rate hike derails the recovery, "With the (Fed's benchmark)
rate pinned near zero, we don't have great scope to respond," she said
in her semiannual monetary policy report to Congress.
By contrast, she said, if the Fed waits longer to raise rates, stoking
inflation, it can increase its key rate more rapidly to catch up
过早升息的风险>>>>>>过晚升息的风险
过早升息:升息如果把正在复苏但仍脆弱的经济成长打下去,美国没有太大的货币政策空间
可以操作(升一次也才0.5%是能干嘛,再QE一次?)
过晚升息:FED更有信心去对抗通膨,而且利率向上的空间很大
2.经济学家调查?
经济学家永远不会有意见相同的时候,如果他们在某个时候意见相同
通常那都是错的,直接看市场更直接也更量化
http://goo.gl/y1Vres
Target Rate(%) 目前(%) 昨日(%) 上月(%)
0.25 55% 61.4 74.3
0.50 45% 38.6 25.7
市场上从来没有觉得今年九月升息的机率有超过一半,
即使数字逐渐上升,目前也只有45%的机率
这数字怎么算的,网站里有详细计算方法