[外絮] 废止(无用的)NBA分组制度

楼主: idiotsmart (不吃蕃茄)   2013-11-23 23:54:40
Abolish (Useless) NBA Divisions: Step 1 of Radical Plan
废止(无用的)NBA分组制度:彻底改变NBA生态计划的第一步
(底下连结有部落格版)
The NBA landscape will look much different toward the end of the regular
season than it does now, but it’s still insane to think about. If the season
ended today, the Toronto Raptors, who aren’t even sure if they should be
trying to win this season, would “earn” the no. 4 playoff seed in the
Eastern Conference by capturing the Atlantic Division. In related news: They
are 5-7, and not very good at professional basketball.
NBA球队排行榜在球季结束时和现在的排行相比将会大相迳庭,但光用想的依然觉
得现在的排行榜很夸张。如果球季在今天结束,多伦多暴龙队这支还不确定这季
是否该拼季后赛的球队,将会靠着大西洋组龙头位置“赚到”东区第四种子。附
上一个相关消息:他们战绩5胜7败,并且球队实力并不优秀。
The Atlantic Division probably won’t stay this awful, though that depends
almost entirely on one of the New York teams finding its footing. And that
seems less a certainty now than it did a week ago, as early-season hiccups
morph into long-term problems. The Knicks are 3-8, miserable on both ends of
the floor, with a defensive keystone who still might be a month away from
roster injured. Meanwhile, the Sixers have regressed after the 3-0 hysteria,
returning. The Nets are also 3-8, looking old and slow, with half their
roster injured. Meanwhile, the Sixers have regressed after the 3-0 hysteria,
and the Celtics are bad — and could make themselves worse via trade.
大西洋组球队可能不会保持低迷战绩,虽然这几乎要靠两支纽约球队中的某一支
站稳脚步。和一周前比起来,由于开季的小撞墙期变成长期的问题,这两支球队
越来越无法保证战绩会爬升。尼克队现在3胜8败,攻守两端都糟透了,而且球队
的防守重心可能还需要一个多月的时间才能回到球场。篮网队也是3胜8败,球队
看起来又老又慢,而且阵容中有一半的球员都在伤兵名单中。同时,七六人在发
疯的开季三连胜后慢慢变回原形。而塞尔迪克是支糟糕的球队,甚至可能会透过
交易让球队变得更烂。
Perhaps this is the year, then, that the NBA will finally have to confront
the reality that divisions are stupid and should be abolished. If some putrid
Atlantic Division team limps into the playoffs with a 39-43 record, and yet
still snags the no. 4 seed and a better-than-deserved first-round matchup, it
will be embarrassing for everyone involved. The only thing that could stave
off such humiliation is the Eastern Conference being so abjectly horrible
that a team could finish 39-43 and actually have the fourth-best record in
the conference. The Eastern Conference right now is a three-team league.
These are bad, bad times on the right coast.
所以,今年可能就是NBA当局该面对分组制度是个愚蠢且该废除的制度这个事实的
时候。如果某支糟糕的大西洋组球队带着39胜43负的战绩爬进季后赛,而且依旧
获得第四种子并有着不应得的第一轮对战组合,那么这将令每位参与者都丢脸至极。
Divisions exist, in theory, to invigorate rivalries and ease travel. They
accomplish neither. Geographic proximity creates rivalries, but geographic
proximity will always exist regardless of divisions. The Knicks-Nets
crosstown thing, the subject of endless silly preseason hype (WHAT DOES
RAYMOND FELTON THINK OF THE THING PAUL PIERCE SAID??? AND HOW WILL J.R. SMITH
RESPOND???), won’t die if the league suddenly vaporized the Atlantic
Division.
理论上而言,分区的存在是位了鼓励世仇的产生和减轻旅行负担。结果两个目标
都没达成。邻近地理位置创造出世仇,但无论有没有分区制度,邻近的地理位置
都将存在。即便联盟突然让大西洋组消失掉,尼克和篮网的纽约情节,这无尽又
愚昧的季前宣传(Raymond Felton会怎么看待Paul Pierce说的话?J.R. Smith
又会怎么回应?)并不会就此停止。
Playoff history also creates rivalries. The Clippers have a better rivalry
with the Grizzlies than they do with any team from the Pacific Division, save
perhaps for the Lakers. Knicks-Pacers means more than Knicks-Sixers or
Knicks-Raptors.
季后赛的历史也会制造世仇。可能除了湖人外,其他太平洋组的球队跟快艇间的
世仇感都不比灰熊来的多。尼克和溜马大战比尼克大战七六人或尼克大战暴龙有
意义多了。
The travel argument hasn’t held for a long, long time. Teams play each
divisional rival four times per season. Guess what? They also play six of
their remaining conference rivals four times per season, and the remaining
three conference teams three times each. Dividing the league into two
conferences, West and East, eases travel. Dividing the conferences into
divisions does not; for the Celtics, all the way up in frigid New England,
there is no difference this season between the nearby Knicks and warm-weather
Magic. They play both four times.
球队移动论点老早就站不住脚。每队和分组对手每季都要对战4次。你猜怎么著?
每队也要和剩下六队分区对手对战4次,并和另外三支分区球队对战3次。把联盟
划分成东西两区的确减轻旅行负担。再把区划分成组则没有这种作用。以塞尔迪
克这支在寒冷北方的新英格兰区球队来说,邻近尼克和温暖的魔术对这季的他们
并无不同。因为都要和他们对战4次。
Nobody cares about divisions, anyway. Teams are sheepish about hanging
division championship banners, and some choose not to do so. Several players,
including Gerald Wallace in a recent rant (as if Crash has done anything but
rant this season), have rather loudly proclaimed the irrelevance of divisions.
反正也没人在乎分组制度。有些球队怯于挂上分组冠军的旗帜,而有些则选择不
挂。有些球员,包含近来夸下海口的Gerald Wallace(他这季除了放话外也没做
什么事),也大声表示分组制度的不恰当。
Rewarding a division winner in any way in terms of postseason seeding is
stupid. The league knows this, too, which is why it has taken steps to
minimize the reward over the last half-decade or so. The nadir came in 2006,
when the league was still using a system that guaranteed the three division
winners in each conference the top three playoff seeds. Denver won the
pathetic Northwest Division, whatever that is, with a 44-38 record, and
secured the plum no. 3 spot even though six other Western Conference playoff
teams had better records. That group included Dallas, which finished 60-22,
the second-best record in the conference, but good enough only for second
place in the brutal Southwest Division.
以季后赛席次来奖励分组龙头不管怎么看都是件愚蠢的事。联盟也知道这很愚蠢
,这也是为什么近五年来联盟有在采取行动减少其奖励效果。转折点在2006年,
当时联盟依然使用奖励分组龙头季后赛前三席次的制度。金块队藉著44胜38败的
战绩赢得西北组分区龙头,并确保住令人垂涎的第三种子,即使西区其他六个球
队的战绩比金块还好。这些球队中包括60胜22败的小牛队,虽是西区第二名,但
只能在竞争激烈的西南组排第二。
What happened? The league slotted the Mavs into the no. 4 spot, and the
Grizzlies and Clippers staged a furious late-season tank-off to slide into
the no. 6 seed — avoiding Dallas and snagging a matchup with the overmatched
Nuggies.
接下来发生什么事呢?联盟把小牛队安排在第四种子,而灰熊队和快艇队开始一
场激烈的季末摆烂对决,才能跑到第六种子避免对战小牛,同时能在第一轮碰到
实力不对等的金块。
The league realized the problem and tweaked the rules so that a division
winner is now guaranteed a top-four seed, and little else. If only one non–
division winner finishes with a better record than a divisional “champion,”
all is well — the team with the better record gets the no. 3 seed, and the
sad-sack divisional champ falls to no. 4. The situation isn’t even all that
dire if two non–divisional winners finish with better records than a
divisional champ. In that case, one of those non-winners gets the no. 3 spot,
and the other one, with the lesser record, gets the no. 5 spot — and
home-court advantage over the divisional winner in the (undeserved) no. 4
seed. This is what happened in 2011-12, for instance, when the Celtics won
the Atlantic Division with a 39-27 record, earning the no. 4 seed over the
40-26 Hawks, but had to go on the road for the first two games of that
Atlanta-Boston series. Boston was the no. 4 seed in name only, and the
post-2006 rules punished them with home-court disadvantage and the no. 4 spot
that comes with a near-guarantee of meeting the top seed in the second round.
No harm, no foul.
联盟意识到这个问题的存在,并尽快的修改规则让分组冠军变成保证前四种子以
及一些其他的规定。假使只有一个非分组龙头球队最终战绩比某个分组冠军还好
的话,一切都没问题。战绩较好的球队将获得第三种子,而战绩较差的分组冠军
滑落至第四种子。如果两个非分组龙头球队最终战绩都比分组冠军来的好的话,
情况也不算太糟。这个状况下,其中一个非龙头队会是第三种子,而另一支战绩
稍差的球队会是第五种子,并且在对战第四种子(不应得)的分组龙头时拥有主
场优势。举例来说,2011-12就发生过这状况。当时塞尔迪克靠着39胜27败战绩
赢得大西洋组龙头,获得比40胜26败战绩的老鹰队更高的第四种子,但却要在客
场开打第一轮季后赛。塞尔迪克只是名义上的第四种子,2006后的新规则藉著客
场劣势和几乎保证要遇到战绩第一名的第四种子来惩罚他们。没什么大问题。
But if you get three non–division winners with better records than a
division winner, a rare occurrence, the system collapses on itself. And
divisions have additional relevance on seeding. Winning a division is the
first tiebreaker to decide seeding between teams that finish with the same
record, a quirk that benefited the Lakers when the Pacific Division was
terrible (in 2010-11, for instance) and very nearly came into play last
season, when Denver, Memphis, and the Clippers were very close to finishing
with identical records.
不过当有三个非龙头球队的战绩都优于分组冠军队时,这个罕见的状况会让分组
冠军制度自动崩溃。而且分组制度和季后赛席次还有其他的关连。分组冠军是第
一个决定战绩平手的手段。而这个奇怪的制度有利于太平洋组很烂时的湖人队(
2010-11球季就是个好例子),并且差点在上个赛季就要再度启用,因为当时金块
、灰熊和快艇几乎就要以相同战绩结束赛季。
How to Fix It
如何解决?
I mean, seriously: Reread those last four paragraphs. Divisions aren’t worth
this much mathematical hand-wringing. Just get rid of them, use a
two-conference system, and pick the top eight teams. The league wouldn’t
even have to change the 82-game monstrosity of a schedule one bit.
我认真的说,重新读一下前面四段。分组制度不值得这些绞尽脑汁的数学计算。
把它废掉就好了,使用两个分区制度,然后各选战绩前八球队。联盟甚至不需要
修改庞大的82场比赛赛程。
Of course, the ineptitude of the Atlantic Division brings another long-term
trend into stark relief: The Western Conference is so much better than the
Eastern Conference that it is, to use the word again, embarrassing. The
league really, really needs the Nets and Knicks to get their shit together in
order to shrink the interconference quality gap to a less laughable size.
想当然耳,大西洋组的糟糕状况也进而让另一个长期趋势展现出鲜明的对比。也
就是西区比东区强弱差到必须再用这个词一次-丢脸至极。联盟急需篮网队和尼
克队振作起来,才能让分区间的差距缩小一些。
This isn’t new, of course. The no. 8 seed in the Western Conference has had
a better record than the no. 8 seed in the East every single season since the
lockout-shortened 1998-99 campaign. Every one! The last seed in the West has
been 5.5 games better than its Eastern counterpart on average during that
span. Each season has seen an average of 3.5 Western Conference lottery teams
finish with better records than the last Eastern Conference playoff team.
这当然也不是新闻了。自从1998-99缩水赛季后,西区第八种子战绩一直以来都比
东区第八种子好。每一年都是!这段期间内的西区最后一名平均胜场比东区最后
一名多5.5场。每个球季平均3.5支西区乐透区球队最终战绩比东区第八种子高。
But, holy crap, have the two conferences gotten off to polar opposite starts
this season. The West is 37-17 (!) against the East, and every borderline
playoff team in the Western Conference that is trying to win is actually, you
know, winning. Portland, Dallas, and Minnesota are all over .500, and Denver
and New Orleans lurk just one game under.
不过真的见鬼了,两个分区的开季状况真的是有够极端。西区对战东区目前是37
胜17败!而且每支西区的想要赢的季后赛边缘球队是真的在赢球,你懂我的意思
。拓荒者、小牛和灰狼都超过五成胜率,而金块和鹈鹕差一场胜场在后面虎视眈
眈。
Almost literally the opposite has happened in the East. Borderline playoff
teams that desperately want to win haven’t managed to do it. They made bold
playoff proclamations after winning the lottery (again!), signed big-name
free agents, traded future first-round picks, came out against tanking, and
wrote “playoffs” on their shoes, but the
Detroit-Washington-Cleveland-Milwaukee quartet of sadness cannot get out of
their own way. The Wiz have at least won two straight after another
dispiriting start, an annual tradition now in D.C. They’re still just 4-7.
Detroit had the worst defense in the league until just two days ago, when the
awful Jazz fell past Detroit — and into last place in both offensive and
defensive efficiency, a rare double. Half of Milwaukee’s roster is injured,
and the new franchise centerpiece got into a barroom brawl, left his dogs out
in the cold, and lost his all-caps status in this space.
几乎完全相反的状况在东区发生。想要赢球的季后赛边缘球队无法赢球。这些球
队在赢得选秀乐透签后大胆宣称自己要打进季后赛(再次宣布!)、签自由市场
大鱼、把未来首轮选秀签交易掉、表现出反对摆烂的态度,然后表示打进季后赛
的决心,但是活塞、巫师、骑士、公鹿悲剧四重奏却无法顺利赢球。巫师在每年
惯例的灰心丧志开季后至少连赢两场。他们依然只有4胜7败。活塞在两天前炉主
爵士还没超车时,还有着联盟最烂的防守。而爵士是一举达成攻守效率垫底,罕
见的双冠王头衔。公鹿阵容有一半都在伤兵名单,而且球队的新建队重心不但让
自己身陷酒吧冲突中、也让他的狗在外受寒,并且失去被人关注的地位。
Some of these teams will turn things around. But as things stand now, the
winning percentage gap between the no. 8 seed in the West (or, heck, the no.
9 seed) and the no. 8 seed in the East is larger than it has ended up in any
season since the 1999 lockout. That doesn’t have much meaning since it’s
very early, and fewer games naturally creates bigger jumps (and falls) in
winning percentage.
里面某些球队会谷底反弹。不过现状就是西区第八(靠!甚至是第九种子)和东
区第八的胜率差距比1999封馆以来任一年的最终战绩都还来的大。由于球季还早
讨论这还没什么意义,而且较少得比赛自然而然对胜率造成更大的上升(和下跌)。
But if the trends keep up, this season could at least enliven the discussion
about fairness and playoff spots. Look, the league isn’t eliminating
conferences, placing all 30 teams into one pool, and balancing the schedule —
even if doing so would prevent what happened in 2007-08 and 2009-10, when it
took 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs and just 41 (in 2010)
and 37 (in 2008) to make it in the East. As long as you’re playing 82 games,
you can’t ask the Clippers to play the Knicks and Nets as often as they do
the Kings and Lakers. It’s too much. Teams in the Northwest Division,
especially the Blazers, already log thousands more air miles per season than
teams from the other five divisions. Punishing them with more is unfair. If
you want to lump all 30 teams into the same playoff-seeding pool, you’re
wading into a much different argument about schedule length.
不过这个趋势继续保持的话,这季可能至少激起一些公平性和季后赛资格的议题
。瞧瞧,联盟并没有消除分区制度、把30支球球队放一起,并平衡赛程难度。即
使这么做便可避免2007-08年和2009-10年发生的状况,当时西区球队要打进季后
赛需要50胜,而东区只需要41(2010年)和37胜(2008年)。当需要打82场比赛
,你不可能要求快艇对战尼克和篮网的次数和对战国王跟湖人一样多。这太超过
了。西北组的球队每季在飞机上花的时间已经比其他五区球队都还多,尤其是拓
荒者队。用更多的飞机里程数折磨他们并不公平。如果你想要把30支球队放进同
一个季后赛区块来决定席次,则涉入一个完全不同的赛制长度议题。
It would be easier to scrap the conference system and just take the 16 best
teams into the playoffs if the league adopted something like a 58-game
schedule, in which every team would play every other team just twice — and
had that schedule unfold over the same time period as the current 82-game
set, to not overburden teams with travel. But that’s not happening anytime
soon.
如果联盟采取58场赛制之类的话,废掉分区制度并单纯让16支最好的球队进季后
赛会简单得多。这个赛制下每支球队只需要对战其他队各两次就好,而且赛程长
度会和现在的82场赛制一样,这样一来便减轻球队的旅行疲累。不过这短期内是
不可能发生的。
So what’s the solution? The boss here has gotten a lot of traction by
suggesting the Entertaining-as-Hell Tournament, in which the top seven seeds
in each conference get guaranteed playoff spots, and the other 16 teams enter
a tournament to win the last two seeds. I like the general concept, and I’d
be game to expand the tournament so that only the top six seeds are
guaranteed postseason spots.
所以解决方法到底是什么?这里的老板因为建议“超有趣锦标赛”而大受青睐。
这方法便是分区前七保证有季后赛资格,而其他16支球队争夺最后两席。我喜欢
这个大方向,而且我有意让这个锦标赛扩大到只有前六支球队保证进季后赛。
But should every team below that get to participate in the
Entertaining-as-Hell Tournament? How about if we just took the four best
non-playoff teams in each conference — the nos. 7-10 seeds — and put them
into some kind of tournament for the final two postseason spots in each
conference? The four semifinalists would all make the real playoffs, and the
last two rounds of the tournament would determine their seedings. That way,
the Eastern Conference bottom-dwellers would have to earn their playoff spots
by actually beating Western Conference teams.
但每支第六名以下的球队都能参加超有趣锦标赛吗?如果我们只在每个分区都各
选四支非季后赛球队,也就是第七到第十种子,然后把他们摆到某种锦标赛来争
夺分区最后两席会怎样呢?这四位半决赛胜出者都会打进真正的季后赛,然后最
后的两轮将会决定他们的席次。这么一来,东区后段班球队会真的透过打赢西区
球队来赢得他们的季后赛席次。
That sounds great in theory. But how would you slot the four “new” playoff
teams into the real playoffs? If the semifinals involve all four Western
Conference participants, which ones shift into the Eastern Conference
bracket? And is that fair to the top two Eastern Conference seeds, which
might end up facing better teams than the lucky duck no. 3 seed?
这理论上听起来不赖。但你要怎么把这四支新季后赛球队摆进真正的季后赛程中
?如果半决赛结果是四个西区参加者,哪一支要被放到东区中呢?而当最后可能
会面对比幸运的第三种子还优秀的球队时,这对东区前两名公平吗?
You could get around these issues by rejiggering the rules in any number of
ways, but each rejiggering creates new ripple effects. And introducing
concepts like this would have profound consequences on team-building
strategies, to the point of upending a team’s short-term goals. Simply
picking the 16 teams with the best records doesn’t quite work, in pure
fairness terms, unless the league balances the schedule.
你可以藉著不断重新安排各种规则来躲避这些争议,但每个新安排都会引起新的
涟漪。而且设立这种新概念会对球队建队策略有重大的影响,可能大到影响球队
的短期目标。单纯选16支最好的球队在公平面而言不太有作用,除非联盟能平衡
赛程难度。
Finding the right fix is hard, but Step 1 is easy: Good-bye, silly divisions.
对症下药不容易,但第一步很简单:再见,愚蠢的分组制度。
原文网址-
http://tinyurl.com/qepcelk
心得:
我想不只原作者,季后赛席次的公平问题已经每年都在吵
但是这个诡异的开季让这个议题又跳出台面
现状就是,纽约双凯子意外的糟糕
而且看起来短期内难以好转
造成大西洋组呈现人人抢状元的窘状
加上东区几支季前补强不错的球队似乎磨得很不顺利
而西区补强和磨合都太过顺利
造成前8竞争太过激烈
因此,不得不再度面对制度问题
球季的确还长
但西区拼死拼活抢季后赛,而东区则是悠哉混进季后赛
这种情况势必要想办法遏制
NBA官方,你们有在想办法吗?
作者: steven610381 (Keiko Kitagawa is mine.)   2013-11-23 23:59:00
东区真的过爽爽
作者: sampsonlu919 (欢迎所有球队教训旧金山)   2013-11-24 00:15:00
其实不用特别改 维持现状就好 像大联盟/NFL都是非分
作者: sampsonlu919 (欢迎所有球队教训旧金山)   2013-11-24 00:16:00
区冠军在所属联盟都不会有主场优势 NBA算是折衷版
作者: vincecarterx (超复杂)   2013-11-24 00:19:00
好文
作者: lionheartmax (max)   2013-11-24 01:35:00
希望把西南组猛兽队放到东区就不会有滥咖混进季后赛

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