乌克兰的库尔斯克入侵是一个冒险之举，但可能踩准了时机
Business Insider, 2025/1/25
乌克兰冒险性的举动，试图夺取俄罗斯领土，最终可能带来收益，原因就在于时机掌握得当
。
乌克兰部队在八月进入俄罗斯库尔斯克地区，进行了一场赌博。他们动用了宝贵的人力和武
器装备，试图分散俄罗斯资源，建立缓冲区，掌握战争的主动权，并且俘获战俘，以便在未
来谈判中加以交换。这次进军库尔斯克是乌克兰战争中的一大震撼之举，此前战线已经僵持
了数月之久。
然而，这次突袭的结果喜忧参半。战争专家表示，考虑到此举带来的士气提升与战争计画被
打乱，它是一个合理的选择，但这次行动并未显著缓解乌克兰战线的压力，乌军也难以稳住
他们夺下的大部分地区。
尽管有挫折，但此次行动的时机或许能让其价值浮现。目前，乌克兰在努力通过谈判结束战
争的同时，持续控制着俄罗斯领土。
“控制库尔斯克领土的一方，在任何停火谈判中都会占据优势地位，”英国前联合化学、生
物、辐射与核力量指挥官兼国防专家哈米什·德布雷顿-戈登上校对《商业内幕》表示。
新谈判的呼声
金斯学院伦敦分校的冲突解决专家及前英国外交官蒂姆·威拉西-威尔西表示，对乌克兰来说
，库尔斯克行动是“相当有意图的”，因为他们试图夺取一些领土，作为谈判筹码。
而特朗普的重新当选已经引发了更多通过谈判结束战争的呼声。
特朗普多次表示，他将通过谈判结束战争。本周，他表示将对俄罗斯施加更多经济压力，以
迫使其达成协议。
乌克兰总统弗洛迪米尔·泽连斯基也表现出更愿意进入谈判的迹象。
泽连斯基在十一月表示，乌克兰尚在控制中的部分地区可以纳入“北约的保护伞”之下，作
为一项协议的一部分，同时保留乌克兰的国际公认边界。他说，乌克兰随后可以用外交方式
谈判，收复仍由俄罗斯控制的领土。
德布雷顿-戈登表示，泽连斯基的言论再次证明“库尔斯克绝对是关键。”
泽连斯基在十月推出的“胜利计画”也呼吁继续推进乌克兰在库尔斯克的行动，暗示其价值
。德布雷顿-戈登指出，这显示泽连斯基可能将库尔斯克视为“关键谈判筹码”。
战略与国际研究中心的高级顾问马克·坎西恩告诉《商业内幕》，鉴于特朗普几乎肯定会推
动谈判，“拥有这个谈判筹码是件好事。”此外，他说，谈判可能会比卡马拉·哈里斯总统
任期下的速度更快，这也使乌克兰更有可能控制住库尔斯克的一大部分。
“对乌克兰来说，这可能会发展得相当顺利，”他说。
库尔斯克对俄罗斯而言意义重大，因为这里曾是二战中的重要战役和转折点。控制库尔斯克
让乌克兰——过去经常处于防守劣势——拥有一些可在谈判中利用的筹码。
俄罗斯可能希望争夺库尔斯克
不过，能否进入谈判还没有定数。俄罗斯总统弗拉迪米尔·普京的发言人上个月表示，俄方
目前“看不到任何谈判的基础。”普京多次表明，他不想减速，不会停下脚步。
战争研究所的冲突专家乔治·巴罗斯告诉《商业内幕》，库尔斯克“肯定能”在谈判中发挥
作用，但他认为俄罗斯总统普京可能宁可继续战斗，也不愿为库尔斯克进行谈判。
对普京来说，谈判自己领土的控制权将是一个“巨大的羞辱”，他说。
目前俄罗斯并未全力以赴进攻库尔斯克。巴罗斯表示：“在我看来，库尔斯克并不是他们的
主要目标。”如果情况有所改变，可能会产生重大影响。
俄罗斯的行动能力有限。集中火力于库尔斯克可能意味着从乌克兰抽调更多部队——这正是
乌克兰所希望的，因为这将减轻其部队的压力。这也可能为乌克兰收复更多自身领土提供机
会。结果如何，目前仍难以预料。
谈判可能还要等上一段时间
即使谈判开始，也可能不会立即进行，而乌克兰需要控制足够大的地区，以便利用库尔斯克
作为谈判筹码。
乌克兰已经失去不少之前控制的领土，然而，战争专家表示，他们很可能是主动放弃部分地
区，以战略性地保卫其他重要位置。某些专家仍然对乌克兰的控制情况持乐观态度。例如，
德布雷顿-戈登说：“乌克兰仍然掌控着相当大的一部分。”
同时，乌克兰本月也在库尔斯克发起了新的攻势。政治军事专家卡斯波鲁（Can Kasapo lu
）近期撰文指出，这一行动“可能会为基辅带来外交杠杆作用”。
但如果乌克兰要从时机上获得回报，仍需要保持地盘，直到谈判成真——特朗普顾问表示，
这可能需要几个月的时间。这或许是一项艰钜的任务，但随着谈判可能性被公开讨论，这让
库尔斯克的战略价值更加凸显。
原文：
Ukraine's Kursk invasion was a risky play, but it might have nailed the timing
Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if f
or no other reason than the timing.
Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio
n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold
play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and
take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov
e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w
hich had been static for months.
But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav
e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t
he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press
ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l
ot of what they captured.
Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio
n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold
play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and
take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov
e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w
hich had been static for months.
But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav
e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t
he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press
ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l
ot of what they captured.
Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right n
ow, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through
negotiations.
Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefi
re negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former c
ommander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forc
es, told Business Insider.
New talk of negotiations
Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a
former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation
was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could
lead to bargaining."
And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war t
hrough negotiations.
Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This w
eek, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a d
eal.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingne
ss to enter talks.
But if it still holds enough of the territory as Trump pushes for negotiations i
t could pay off.
Ukraine's risky gamble to seize Russian territory could ultimately pay off, if f
or no other reason than the timing.
Ukrainian forces rolled the dice on a gamble and advanced into the Russian regio
n of Kursk in August. They opted to use precious manpower and weaponry in a bold
play to divert Russian resources, create a buffer zone, seize the momentum, and
take land and prisoners that could be exchanged in future negotiations. The mov
e into Kursk was a shocking development in the Ukraine war, the front lines of w
hich had been static for months.
But the results of the surprise incursion have been mixed. While war experts hav
e said it was a reasonable call given the morale and momentum wins, as well as t
he upsetting of Russia's war plans, the move hasn't significantly relieved press
ure on the front lines in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians have struggled to hold a l
ot of what they captured.
Despite the setbacks, the timing of this thing could make it worthwhile. Right n
ow, Ukraine is holding Russian territory amid a new push to end the war through
negotiations.
Whoever holds territory in Kursk "is going to be in the box seat for any ceasefi
re negotiations," Col. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a defense expert and a former c
ommander for the UK's Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear forc
es, told Business Insider.
New talk of negotiations
Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a conflict resolution expert at King's College London and a
former British diplomat, said this month that for Ukraine, the Kursk operation
was "quite deliberate" because it was "trying to take some territory which could
lead to bargaining."
And now Trump's re-election has created new talk of efforts to revolve the war t
hrough negotiations.
Trump has repeatedly said that he would end the war through negotiations. This w
eek, he said he would put more economic pressure on Russia to get it to make a d
eal.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also signaled an increased willingne
ss to enter talks.
Zelenskyy said in November the parts of Ukraine still under its own control coul
d be taken "under the NATO umbrella" as part of an agreement that still holds Uk
raine's borders as its internationally recognized borders. He said Ukraine could
then negotiate the return of its own territory that was still under Russian con
trol "in a diplomatic way."
De Bretton-Gordon said Zelenskyy's comments reinforce that "Kursk is absolutely
key."
A "victory plan" Zelenskyy unveiled in October also called for the continuation
of Ukraine's work in Kursk, hinting at its value. De Bretton-Gordon said it show
s Zelenskyy may be seeing Kursk as "a key bargaining chip."
Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Stu
dies, told BI that given Trump is "almost certain" to push negotiations, "it's g
ood to have this bargaining chip." Plus, he said, negotiations are likely to tak
e place sooner than they would have under a Kamala Harris presidency, making it
more likely that Ukraine could hold on to a significant chunk of Kursk.
"It could work out well" for Ukraine, he said.
Kursk holds significance for the Russians, as it was a key battle and turning po
int in World War II. Holding Kursk gives Ukraine, which has often been on its ba
ck foot, something it can use in negotations.
Russia may want to fight over Kursk
There's no guarantee it gets to negotiations, though. Russian President Vladimir
Putin's spokesperson said last month that Russia sees "no grounds for negotiati
ons yet." Putin has signaled that he doesn't want to slow down and take his foot
off the gas.
George Barros, a conflict expert at the Institute for the Study of War, told BI
Kursk "certainly can" play a role in negotiations, but he suspects that Russian
President Vladimir Putin would rather fight rather than negotiate for Kursk.
Negotiating over his own territory would be a "massive humiliation for Putin," h
e said.
Russia hasn't pushed as hard as it could in Kursk. Barros said "it's quite clear
to me that Kursk has not been a primary objective." Were that to change, it cou
ld have significant effects.
There are limits to what Russia can do. Focusing on Kursk could mean taking more
troops out of Ukraine — something Ukraine wants as it takes the pressure off i
ts forces. That might open the door for Ukraine to take back more of its own ter
ritory. It's hard to know.
Negotiations might still be a long way off
If there are negotiations, they may not be immediate, and Ukraine will need to b
e holding a good-sized chunk to use Kursk as a bargaining chip.
Ukraine has lost much of what it held, though warfare experts said it likely gav
e some of that up willingly to strategically defend other parts. Some experts ar
e still bullish about what Ukraine is holding. De Bretton-Gordon, for instance,
said "Ukraine's still holding a significant amount."
And Ukraine also executed a new offensive push in Kursk this month. The move was
"likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage," Can Kasapo lu, a political-military
expert at the Hudson Institute, wrote recently.
But for the gamble to pay off for Ukraine in terms of timing, Ukraine still need
s to be holding ground if negotiations turn real — something Trump advisors sai
d could take months more. That could be a tall order, but with the possibility o
f talks being openly discussed, that makes Kursk even more important.
原文连结：
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraines-kursk-gamble-could-turn-out-well-with-i
ts-timing-2025-1