推 momocom : 不过解放军的弹道飞弹怎么那么准？ 01/11 16:21
→ momocom : 居然一开战可以重创美日的基地 01/11 16:22
→ momocom : 我们的海军还全灭，PLA是套用哪一场战役？ 01/11 16:22
推 momocom : 我方海军开战全灭，兰德的报告也提过 01/11 16:35
→ momocom : 我只是奇怪PLA参数套用哪个，怎么飞弹那么神准 01/11 16:36
→ momocom : 重点是都还找得到船，PLA情报那么强？ 01/11 16:37
不太确定是否为正确资料来源
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
https://reurl.cc/GX2O3v
报告:
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
https://reurl.cc/eWKANM
P52
Ground-Launched Missiles
China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is a formidable
force. Thus, each game turn begins with ground-based missile attacks.
These missiles primarily target U.S. and Japanese surface ships and
air bases.
中国玩家每次会以地对地飞弹发动突击
同时攻击美日水面舰与空军基地
To speed up play, China’s war-opening joint fires
strike on Taiwan was modeled and pre-adjudicated in every iteration.
这边我不确定意思
This strike employs much of China’s short-range ballistic missile
inventory and would largely destroy Taiwan’s navy and cripple its
air force.
中国用光短程弹道飞弹打烂台湾海军并削弱台湾空军
解释为何可以打烂台湾海军的原因放在注119
119 Taiwan’s navy consists of outdated ships that would be subjected to a
wide array of Chinese coastal defense cruise missiles, Houbei fast-attack
boats, and bombing from attack aircraft.
The ships possess only rudimentary self-defenses that are unsuitable
for the sophistication of Chinese attacks.
China’s success in destroying these ships would be even greater
if China could catch them in port because Taiwan failed to
receive or react to warnings of China’s impending attack.
While some Taiwanese ships would survive this initial strike,
they would be unable to operate in the strait or as an
effective force. For an overview of Taiwan’s navy,
see: “Overview of Taiwanese Navy Warships,” YouTube video, posted by
Eurasia Nabal Insight, August
13, 2022, 20:37, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItW7f3_BVCo.
台湾舰队摆烂太久防空能力低弱
然后又可能在港口被奇袭
所以很可能第一波就被炸烂
剩下的也没啥用处
这是CSIS的看法
被短程弹道飞弹炸烂的理由就见人见智吧