1. 新闻来源：
mlbtraderumors
2. 新闻标题：
2017-18 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
2017-18 MLB前50名自由球员及预测(只翻译前五位，中文翻译第八页开始)
3. 新闻内容：
By Tim Dierkes | November 2, 2017 at 11:23pm CDT
MLB Trade Rumors is proud to present our 12th annual Top 50 Free Agents list!
The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can
filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our
mobile-friendly free agent tracker here.
New to MLBTR? You can follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, follow us on
Instagram, and download our free app for iOS and Android.
MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Jason Martinez joined me in this
collaboration, debating free agent contracts and destinations for many hours.
We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile
free agent and trade marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Let us know
what you think in the comment section!
Looking for Shohei Otani? Scroll to the bottom of the post for information
on Japan’s Babe Ruth, whose free agency is a special case. On to our Top 50
free agents:
1. Yu Darvish – Cubs. Six years, $160MM. Let’s start by addressing the
elephant in the room. Darvish recorded a mere ten outs in his two brutal
World Series starts for the Dodgers. With those ugly outings fresh in our
minds, projecting him to receive the winter’s largest contract creates
cognitive dissonance. However, Darvish remains what he was a week ago: a
very good starting pitcher and the best in this free agent class.
Darvish spent the first seven years of his career in Japan starring for the
Nippon Ham Fighters. The Fighters made Darvish available to MLB teams in
December 2011, at a time when there was no limit on bidding for the exclusive
right to negotiate with the player. The Rangers beat out the Blue Jays,
Yankees, and Cubs with a $51.7MM bid and signed Darvish to a six-year, $56MM
deal on top of that. Darvish’s fine Rangers career included 782 2/3 innings
of 3.42 ERA ball with a 11.0 K/9, plus four All-Star appearances and a
second-place Cy Young finish. He was traded to the Dodgers in July, making
him ineligible for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. While with the Rangers,
Darvish went about 22 months between starts due to Tommy John surgery. He’s
been injury-free this year and nudged his way past the 200-inning plateau in
his brief start last night. The 31-year-old righty should have no problem
setting a new free agent record for a Tommy John survivor, passing Jordan
Zimmermann’s five-year, $110MM deal. Seven-year contracts have historically
been reserved for slightly younger pitchers without elbow surgery on their
resume, so we’re expecting six years for Darvish. Free agent starters have
exceeded a $25MM salary four different times, and we’re projecting Darvish
to become the fifth. If the Dodgers decide to move on, the Cubs, Phillies,
Nationals, Cardinals, Astros, and Twins could be potential suitors. There’s
a shortage of obvious big-market players here, allowing for dark horses to
enter the mix.
2. J.D. Martinez – Red Sox. Six years, $150MM. Martinez came up through
the Astros’ farm system but struggled through 975 plate appearances in the
Majors and was released in March 2014. The Astros didn’t understand the
impact of his recently-overhauled swing. The Tigers scooped Martinez up on a
minor league deal, and he went on to rake at a .300/.361/.551 pace with 99
home runs in 1,886 plate appearances for them from 2014-17. A trade to the
Diamondbacks this past July removed the possibility of a qualifying offer and
boosted Martinez’s stock further as he went nuts with 29 home runs in 62
games. He finished with a career-high 45 bombs on the season. The biggest
knock on Martinez is his right field defense, which has been a clear negative
for the last two years. He also missed significant time with an elbow
fracture in 2016 and a foot sprain to begin this year. Still, Martinez’s
right-handed power will make him the most coveted bat on the market, enough
that teams without corner outfield openings could trade someone to create a
spot. The Diamondbacks may not have the payroll space to retain Martinez,
leaving the Cardinals, Red Sox, and Giants as top suitors.
3. Eric Hosmer – Royals. Six years, $132MM. Every year one free agent is
particularly polarizing, and this winter it’s Hosmer. The first baseman did
solid work for the Royals over seven seasons, with a well-timed career-best
batting line of .318/.385/.498 in 671 plate appearances this year. He just
turned 28 and will be looking for at least six years — quite likely more.
However, defensive metrics rate his glove poorly (a 2017 Gold Glove
nomination notwithstanding), and off years with the bat resulted in
replacement level seasons in 2014 and ’16. A case will be made for a $200MM
contract, but it’s not a very good case. Teams seeking a first baseman have
free-agent alternatives such as Carlos Santana, Logan Morrison, and Yonder
Alonso, as well as trade candidate Jose Abreu. If Hosmer gets a huge
contract, it probably won’t be from the game’s more analytical teams. The
Royals seem likely to make a spirited effort to retain Hosmer as the face of
their franchise, while the Red Sox, Cardinals, Mariners, and Rockies could
enter the market to varying degrees. Hosmer is a lock to receive and reject
a qualifying offer.
4. Jake Arrieta – Brewers. Four years, $100MM. A July 2013 trade from the
Orioles to the Cubs rebooted Arrieta’s career, which peaked with the NL Cy
Young Award in 2015. Arrieta’s star has dimmed since then, as he’s become
more prone to walks, home runs, and hits and stopped pitching deep into
games. He still provided value to the 2017 Cubs, with 30 starts of 3.53 ERA
ball. Though he turns 32 in March, Arrieta’s case for a long-term deal is
boosted by excellent physical conditioning. We expect him to come out
looking for a six-year deal, but land at four or five. Arrieta appears
likely to move on from the Cubs, with whom he was unable to agree to an
extension in the past few years. However, it’s possible Arrieta could
circle back to the Cubs later in the offseason if his market disappoints. We
don’t see a clear favorite to sign him, so we’ve chosen a dark horse pick
in the Brewers. The Cardinals, Nationals, Astros, Rangers, Phillies,
Yankees, Angels, Mariners, Braves, Twins, and Dodgers could be in the mix
depending on the price.
5. Masahiro Tanaka – Phillies. Five years, $100MM. Tanaka, 29 this month,
is coming off his fourth and perhaps worst MLB season. He posted a 4.74 ERA
in 30 regular season starts, with a ridiculous 21.2% of his flyballs allowed
becoming home runs. It wasn’t a Yankee Stadium problem, as Tanaka was even
more homer-prone on the road. On the bright side, Tanaka put up a
career-best strikeout rate, a 3.77 ERA in the second half, and three
excellent, homer-free postseason starts. Back in January 2014, Tanaka joined
the Yankees via the Japanese baseball posting system after pitching seven
years for the Rakuten Golden Eagles. With the posting fee capped at $20MM,
the Yankees won the bidding over the Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers, and
Diamondbacks with a seven-year, $155MM deal that included an opt-out that
comes due at midnight on Saturday. The biggest wrinkle in Tanaka’s
long-term prospects may be the partially torn UCL in his right elbow, which
surfaced more than three years ago. Tanaka went the rehab route instead of
undergoing Tommy John surgery. In 2015 Tanaka missed time with a forearm
strain and had arthroscopic elbow surgery in the offseason. This year, he
had a DL stint for shoulder fatigue. If Tanaka opts out, he will be walking
away from three years and $67MM left on his Yankees contract. Ervin Santana
was able to land a four-year deal with a rehabbed and healed UCL, and it
seems that opting out is the right call for Tanaka. The Yankees could be in
a position to lower their luxury tax hit by adding a year or two and reducing
the average annual value of his contract. If Tanaka moves on from the
Yankees, the Cubs, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, Angels, Phillies,
Twins, Mariners, Rangers, and Brewers could be possibilities. If he does opt
out, the Yankees will assuredly issue a qualifying offer in order to collect
draft-pick compensation.
4. 新闻网址：
https://tinyurl.com/y8r75ref
5. 备注：
MLBTR列出球季结束后的自由球员名单如下：
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-list.html
本文是MLBTR列出的前五十名自由球员及签约预测，有兴趣的可以点进去网址看英文版，
小鲁翻到前五个就先倒惹QQ
1. Yu Darvish (ダルビッシュ有)：小熊，$160MM/6YR。
尽管达比修有在世界大赛先发表现惨烈，但他仍然是目前FA中最顶级的投手。从2011
年自日本职棒闯荡美国职棒大联盟以来，在大联盟的成绩有目共睹：四度入围明星赛、单
季三振王、更拿过赛扬票选第二名。虽然他曾动过Tommy John手术，但今年是手术后第一
次单季投超过两百局，对满31岁的达比修有来说健康因素应不是大问题。在合约方面，因
为今年七月从游骑兵被交易至道奇，没有$17.4MM QO的资格，MLBTR预测应可拿超过六年、
每年$25MM的价码，竞争者如道奇、小熊、费城人、国民、红雀、太空人及黑马双城。
2. J.D. Martinez：红袜，$150MM/6YR。
在太空人时期打的挣扎．2014年3月被释出后转战老虎，之后却缴出明星等级般的可怕
火力，曾入围明星赛、拿过银棒奖，今年更敲出生涯新高的单季45轰！然而，J.D.的疑虑
除了在右外野守备、连两年的守备数据皆为负值外，手肘与脚部的伤势也是他无法整季完
整出赛的重要因素，尽管如此，他仍然是目前市场中最强力的右打者，对缺少左右外野的
球队是很好的选择。在合约方面，因季中交易没有QO资格，且母队响尾蛇薪资空间有限的
关系大概也不会留他，竞争者如红雀、红袜及巨人。
3. Eric Hosmer：皇家，$132MM/6YR。
自皇家发迹超过六年至今将步入自由市场，合约年缴出了生涯最佳三围.318/.385/
.498，曾拿过金手套(虽然入围了今年的守备圣经奖，但今年进阶守备数据不佳)、入围明
星赛、拿过世界大赛冠军，今年满28岁的Hosmer希望能有一纸至少六年的约，Scott Boras
更说要争取$200MM的大约。在合约方面，皇家希望能留下Hosmer成为队史的代表人物之一
，其他的竞争者如红袜、红雀、水手、洛矶等，而Hosmer则需决定是不是要接受QO。
4. Jake Arrieta：酿酒人，$100MM/4YR。
2013年以前给人的印象就是保送过多、容易挨轰、投的不长的毛病，但自从金莺交易
至小熊后，却成为明星等级的王牌投手，拿过赛扬奖、银棒奖、入围过明星赛、更帮助小
熊拿下世界大赛冠军！虽然他明年就要满32岁，但这对没什么健康疑虑的Arrieta拿长约
应该不是问题，MLBTR期待他能拿到六年约、至少也有四年、五年约。在合约方面，过去
小熊曾开出延长合约，但Arrieta显然希望能进入自由市场试试水温，市场竞争者如红雀、
国民、太空人、游骑兵、费城人、洋基、天使、水手、勇士、双城及黑马酿酒人，而道奇
则是看价码而定。
5. Masahiro Tanaka(田中 将大)：费城人，$100MM/5YR。
从日本乐天金鹰转战纽约洋基，签了一纸$155MM/7YR的大约，在大联盟待了四年、刚
满29岁的田中将大，却投出大联盟球季生涯中最差的成绩，30场先发中缴出4.74 ERA、
21.2%的飞球被轰成全垒打(本季被轰出35轰)。但另一方面，本季却也是田中投出三振率
最高的球季(9.8 SO9)，下半季缴出3.77 ERA，季后赛更是三场精彩的先发没被轰出全垒打
，20局投球仅失两分！然而，田中将大最大的疑虑就是健康问题，右手肘部分撕裂伤困扰
着他超过了三年，这期间借由其他复健方式而不是动Tommy John手术来进行治疗，2015年
球季田中将大曾因为前臂紧绷，动了关节镜手肘手术也没有完整出赛，今年也曾因肩膀的
疲劳进过DL。在合约方面，目前田中与洋基还有$67MM/3YR的约，洋基则希望能把明年的预
算控制在豪华税门槛之下，故可能对几位阵中的大约选手进行处理，如果洋基不留下田中
，应该会开QO给他来取得选补偿选秀，而市场竞争者如小熊、国民、太空人、红雀、道奇
、天使、费城人、双城、水手、游骑兵、酿酒人都是可能的买家。