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撰文者：Tim Dierkes(MLBTradeRumors.com)
Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen
自由球员简介：陈伟殷
After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin
Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.
于金莺经历四个成功的球季后，来自台湾的左投陈伟殷将在大联盟生涯首次投入自由球员
市场。
Strengths/Pros
优势
Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings. That ranks 28th among all
qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a
historically strong free agent class. While Chen is not an ace, he’s had
better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been
better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.
陈自2014年至今吃了377局及3.44的投手自责分率，这在所有先发投手中排名第28、所有
左投当中排名第11、在这次的自由球员市场中则排名第七，既使陈并非王牌，他这几年下
来的表现可能比一般球迷所想像的还要好，他也比与他同一线的自由球员Jeff
Samardzija和Mike Leake更优。
Chen is not going to beat himself. His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified
starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced
than even Zack Greinke. Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as
only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a
lower weighted on-base average against them. Chen throws hard for a
southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6
miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.
陈通常不会让自己深陷泥沼，他每九局1.88个的保送在2014及15球季的先发投收中排名第
十，他的保送率甚至比Zack Greinke还低，陈对决左打也相当有一套，在联盟当中也只有
Dallas Keuchel、Jake Arrieta、Greinke、 和Clayton Kershaw在垒上有人时比他还有
效率的解决打者，陈也算是为强力左投，近两年先发的直球均速91.6英哩在先发左投当中
为第七名。
Chen features a healthy left arm. His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique
strain in 2013. In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least
31 starts. Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys
like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.
陈也有着健康的手臂，他唯一进入伤兵名单是在2013年由于腹斜肌拉伤，在其他三季当中
他都至少先发了31场比赛，在这四年的期间，陈先发的场次比Chris Sale、Stephen
Strasburg、Francisco Liriano、和Johnny Cueto都还要多。
Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July. He’s younger than
mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years
palatable and five years possible.
陈的年纪也不大，今天七月才满30岁，他比与他同一线的自由球员Scott Kazmir和J.A.
Happ都还要年轻，这也让他得到四年约显得合理、五年约也不无可能。
Weaknesses/Cons
劣势
If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great. Though he had
that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was
3.91. Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose
Quintana/Francisco Liriano. I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here. Chen
’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league
average. His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the
last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in
baseball. To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.
如果你不是只用投手自责分率判定一位投手，或许陈就没有帐面上的数字杰出，虽然他近
两年的投手自责分率为3.44，他的SIERA则是3.91，这显示陈比较属于Wade Miley/Jon
Niese而非Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano，我不会引用深奥的统计数据，陈的三振率
一直以来都算普通，处于平均或甚至略低于联盟平均，他的滚地球比率在这这两年间的先
发投手中排名第42，而他的被全垒打率在排名当中是倒数第六，陈需要防守及较大的球场
加持才能巩固成功。
On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged
6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons. Among those with at least
60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46. Samardzija and Leake will regularly go
deeper into games than Chen.
从这两年陈每场先发平均吃下6.08局可以看出他可能没有办法拯救牛棚，在其他这两年先
发至少60场的先发当中，陈的每场先发平均局数在46人当中排名第28，Samardzija及
Leake通常可以比陈吃更多的局数。
Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires
a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. This is a disadvantage for
Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.
Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens
draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust
market for free agent pitching.
陈拒绝了金莺的合格报价，所以签下他需要损失第一轮的选秀权，这让陈与Cueto、Leake
、Kazmir和前田健太相较之下多了一个劣势，像红袜和响尾蛇这种选秀顺位在前面的
球队不太可能放弃选秀权去签陈，这个因素会使这些球队在自由市场上寻找没有着个包袱
的大鱼。
Personal
个人
Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball,
according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker. He reportedly received offers
from Japanese and MLB teams at the time. According to Newman, Chen chose to
sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.
After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm
team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006. Newman tells me
the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei
contract. He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in
2009. At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011
season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with
the posting system. Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations
Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a
three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a
fourth year. Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for
$8.15MM. Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out
of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history. Chen’s
big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the
game was carried on three national TV networks.
陈来自台湾，2004年大学未结束便开始职棒生涯，根据Patrick Newman(NPBTracker.com)
的消息，陈当时收到自日职与大联盟的合约，依Newman的说法，陈由于来自台湾球探陈大
丰的关系最后选择加盟中日龙，在中日龙的农场待了一段时间后，陈于2006年接受Tommy
John手术，中日龙也在他复健的那对时间将他释出并与他重新签下一份育成合约，他随后
也在中日龙开始发光发热，并于2009年得到防御率王，由于陈的要求，中日龙于2011年球
季后放手让陈追梦，当时才刚上任几月的金莺执行副总Dan Duquette将陈以三年1138.8万
美附带第四年球团选择权将他签下来，Duquette也同时以两年815万将同是来自日职的和
田毅签下，陈是台湾第一位先在日职随后于大联盟签约的球员，同时也是金莺历史队上第
一位来自台湾的球员，陈在大联盟的第一场先发也吸引了非常多的球迷收看，在台湾三个
不同频道拨出。
Market
市场
The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to
re-sign Chen. Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s
have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “
miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June
due to a roster crunch. Chen’s market could include teams such as the
Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins,
Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.
According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in
the offseason. As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the
qualifying offer. Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott
Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen. There are four potential
$100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen,
Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda. I project this to be the $80MM range,
and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.
Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a
higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be
posted. Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier. If Chen drops down to
four years, he could be compared to Kazmir. Kazmir is no horse himself, and
he’s a year and a half older than Chen.
金莺目前还有许多缺口需要填，而他们看来似乎不太可能将陈签回去，巴尔的摩太阳报的
Dan Connolly指出金莺从来没有对自由市场的投手提出超过五年的约，加上陈对于球队在
季中因为轮值需求将他送至小联盟一事可能还有疙瘩，比较有可能签下陈的球队为天使、
太空人、蓝鸟、红雀、小熊、巨人、马林鱼、国民、教士、游骑兵、皇家、老虎、双城和
洋基。根据Connolly的说法，陈与他的家人在季后居住的地方为西岸的加州南边。和我前
面提到的，一些球队可能会因为合格报价的因素退却，有些球队则是不想与Scott Boras
谈生意或已经没有空间负担陈的薪资，目前自由市场上有四位可能获得一亿以上合约的投
手，第二线的投手便为陈、Samardzija、Leake，或许还可以加上前田，我将这些人定位
在可获得8000万左右的合约，而也有一些合理的理由选择陈而非其他三位，Samardzija本
季的自责分率为4.96，Leake比陈面对较少的打者、自责分率也高过陈，前田则连是否在
大联盟生存都是个未知数，加上陈是当中唯一的左投，如果陈愿意考虑四年约，他可以与
Kazmir相比，Kazmir不是工作马，而且他年纪也比陈大上一岁又六个月。
Expected Contract
预期合约
I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is
possible, I believe he’ll get five. Next year’s free agent market is one
factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group,
which might be important to forward-looking teams. There’s also the Boras
factor. He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe. He routinely
gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those
coming off a good year. There’s also good old-fashioned earned run
average. A 3.44 ERA still sounds really good. If Boras has a team owner’s
ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the
basis of that ERA. ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look
no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade. While
I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for
Chen.
我已经看过几张可能提供给陈的四年约，我相信他会得到五年约，明年较不起眼的任意球
员市场是一个因素，如果把陈放到明年他会是市场上第二的先发投手，这可能对有远见的
球队很重要，Boras也是一个因素，他为35岁的Derek Lowe争到一份四年约，他通常能为
他的客户争取到最长的年限，特别是那一些在合约年有出色表现的选手，加上传统注重投
手自责分率的因素，3.44听起来仍是相当棒的，如果Boras 有能让球队打听Chris Davis
的能力，他当然能够靠着投手自责分率的基础上来好好兜售陈，投手自责分率在市场上还
是有一定的指标意义，这可以参考James Shields和Alfredo Simon的合约，在我看到了至
高9000万可能性的同时，我还是预测陈会得到五年8000万的合约。