话说这篇是篇旧文
一般来说依印象 老虎主场是偏投手 阿灵顿则是打者天堂 这篇会给你不一样的想法
不打算全部翻(文有点长XDDD) 也就摘录部份文章 需要看全文者请至连结
MLB and Texas Rangers Home Runs in 2013
http://tinyurl.com/pewpobv
11/10/2013 By Peter Ellwood
MLB Average
For starters, here are the average results by year for every home run hit in
baseball going back to 2010:
Year Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR
2010 103.3 396.6 4652
2011 103.5 396.5 4633
2012 103.5 398.3 4984
2013 103.3 396.6 4710
As you can see, the speed of home runs hit has not changed much over the
years, fluctuating between 103.3 and 103.5 MPH. Distance has been fairly
consistent as well, except for the jump in 2012 to 398.3 feet. So that tells
us what an average home run is: 103.4 MPH off the bat and 397 feet.
从2010年至今蒐集的资料显示出 球初速没有太大的改变 距离也是如此
除了2012年增至398.3呎之外
联盟平均的HR为 初速103.4mph 距离397呎
Texas Rangers Hitters
For curiosities’ sake, we can also look at this data from the hitter’s
perspective, as well. Below are the home runs hit by Rangers hitters in 2013,
sorted first by speed off the bat, and then by true distance:
以下是条子打者2013年 初速以及距离排名
TEX hitters by speed off bat
Rank Hitters Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR
1 D.Murphy 105.4 408.1 13
2 L.Berkman 104.9 395.7 6
3 N.Cruz 104.5 408.3 27
4 A.Rosales 104.1 412.0 1
5 M.Moreland 103.7 397.9 23
6 C.Gentry 103.1 409.5 2
7 A.Beltre 103.1 397.9 30
8 J.Baker 103.0 398.2 11
9 L.Martin 102.8 387.4 8
10 A.Rios 102.7 399.2 6
11 A J.Pierzynski 102.5 395.3 17
12 G.Soto 102.5 388.9 9
13 I.Kinsler 100.7 376.1 12
14 J.Profar 100.3 380.2 6
15 E.Andrus 100.1 373.3 4
TEX hitters by Dist.
Rank Hitters Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR
1 A.Rosales 104.1 412.0 1
2 C.Gentry 103.1 409.5 2
3 N.Cruz 104.5 408.3 27
4 D.Murphy 105.4 408.1 13
5 A.Rios 102.7 399.2 6
6 J.Baker 103.0 398.2 11
7 M.Moreland 103.7 397.9 23
8 A.Beltre 103.1 397.9 30
9 L.Berkman 104.9 395.7 6
10 A J.Pierzynski 102.5 395.3 17
11 G.Soto 102.5 388.9 9
12 L.Martin 102.8 387.4 8
13 J.Profar 100.3 380.2 6
14 I.Kinsler 100.7 376.1 12
15 E.Andrus 100.1 373.3 4
The first surprise here to me is that David Murphy’s 13 home runs averaged
the fastest off the bat. Given the backspin he produces with his swing, I
wouldn’t expect his contact to be so solid as to produce a high velocity
shot.
Of no surprise is that Elvis Andrus sits at the bottom of both lists. While
his second half “power surge” was a welcome sight to see, this may suggest
that we shouldn’t expect it to continue.
Right next to Andrus is Ian Kinsler, which is of more concern. This may be a
product of Kinsler’s upper cut swing, and his low rate of line drive home
runs. But for a player the Rangers count on to help produce the power on the
team to rank so low in home run speed and distance is unorthodox.
The Ballpark in Arlington
阿灵顿球场
With so much data to analyze, it can be difficult to know what direction to
dig. So I did what any good person of the internet would do, and
crowdsourced. Upon asking my followers on Twitter what questions I could
attempt to answer for them, the most common response was regarding the
Ballpark in Arlington’s performance as a home run park in 2013.
有太多数据 很难直接去挑选其中之一
我从网络跟推特搜集想法 得到最多的回响是直接看阿灵顿这球场在2013是否仍是个HR天堂
From the eye test, the usual jetstream in Arlington disappeared in 2013. What
did the data say?
直接观察到的是阿灵顿的灵气(jetstream 喷射气流)在2013消失了 那数据怎么说呢?
Ballpark Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist. Avg HR
Arlington
2010 105.1 406.0 193
2011 104.9 405.6 252
2012 104.9 406.2 201
2013 104.0 401.1 159
That’s pretty clear. From 2010-2012, the results of all home runs hit in the
Ballpark in Arlington are nearly identical. Then, in 2013, it looks like a
different ballpark, with both speed off the bat and distance dropping about
1%.
很明显的数据说明一切 从2010-2012数据都很稳定
接着2013就像是个不同的球场 初速跟距离都下滑1%
Obviously, the key isn’t that home run distance fell by five feet in 2013 at
the Ballpark, it’s that we can project this assumption to speculate that all
fly balls were about 1% shorter in 2013. Thus, a lot of warning track outs in
2013 would have flown over the fence in previous years, as we can see by the
lower home run totals.
重点不是HR距离下滑了1%，而是我们假设所有的飞球飞行距离都下滑1%
看看下降的HR数字 可能很多在warning track被接杀的飞球在往年都飞出了场外
But wait, you say, the Rangers lost Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, of course
the numbers would go down. To see if that is really the driving factor, we
can look at the same data, but split it based on home runs hit by Texas
players and non-Texas players. Below you will see Texas players on the left,
and Texas opponents on the right:
但是等等 你可能会说条子损失了Hamilton跟Napoli两位重砲 HR下滑是理所当然的
为了说明这说法是否为真 我们使用相同数据 但是区分条子打者(左边)跟对手打者(右边)
HR by Rangers hitters HR by Rangers Opponents
Yr Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist.AVG HR Speed of Bat Avg TRUE Dist.AVG HR
2010 105.6 408.2 102 104.4 403.5 91
2011 105.2 406.5 136 104.6 404.4 116
2012 105.0 406.4 108 104.9 406.0 93
2013 103.7 401.5 85 104.3 400.6 74
As you can see, both sides of the battle were equally affected by the loss of
the jetstream in Arlington in 2013.
很明显得可以看出来 不管是条子还是来访的对手 初速跟距离都显著的下降了
Last offseason, the Rangers made construction changes to the area behind home
plate to modify the Cuervo Club, now the Capital One Club. In this Fox Sports
article on the Ballpark changes, it was speculated that the changes, which
were intended to better circulate air in the Ballpark, may reduce the
jetstream but “How the construction will impact the jetstream won't be known
until games are played.” Well, now the games have been played and it seems
obvious that we can call the jetstream dead. In physics terms, the jetstream
is a wind and drag coefficient modifier that has now been more controlled.
2012季末 条子将本垒后方的Cuervo Club做了调整
看来灵气已经死亡了
Rest in peace, jetstream, giver of cheap Michael Young home runs for so many
years.
感谢您灵气 替Michael Young这些年来制造了不少刚过墙的HR
额外补充:
2013前球场图片
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/old-ballpark.jpg
2013后
http://cdn.fangraphs.com/fantasy/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/new-ballpar.jpg