http://nypost.com/2013/10/23/why-giants-dont-think-35m-for-lincecum-is-crazy/
BOSTON — Tim Lincecum, over the past two seasons, is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA.
That is the fourth-worst ERA in the majors for any pitcher with at least 300
innings between 2012-13.The guy just ahead of him on that don’t-want-to-be-
on-it list was Barry Zito (4.82) and the Giants werethankful his seven-year,
$126 monstrosity was finally over — even if he helped them win the 2012 World
Series. Yet, they instantly got into another dubious deal Tuesday, a two-year,
$35 million pact with Lincecum.The $17.5 million per-year average is the 15th-
highest ever for a pitcher. The 14th belongs to Zito($18 million).
Yet, San Francisco assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when reached
yesterday by phone, offered a reasonedargument for doing this deal:
1. The Giants were going to place the qualifying offer ($14.1 million) on
Lincecum to assure if he left,they would receive draft-pick compensation. If
he stayed, that would be his 2014 salary. If they then offered the tender next
year and it had about the same increase ($800,000) that it had between 2012-13
, then the Giants could, through this process, have Lincecum for two years at
$29 million — not incredibly far off thetwo-year deal the sides actually reached.
2. Lincecum was going to reject the tender. At that point, there would be
open bidding and the Giants had received enough inquiries in the late-July
trade market to believe several teams would pursue him — and pursuit in free
agency usually means rising prices. It was possible the Mets could have been
among his suitors; perhaps even the Yankees if they were shut out on convincing
Hiroki Kuroda to come back or failed to win the post for Masahiro Tanaka.
3. The Giants wanted to retain Lincecum. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are
their only two sure-thing rotation members next year, and San Francisco did not
want to have to find three starters in this market rather than two (as an aside
, expect the Giants to be among those pursuing Tanaka).
4. The Giants drafted, developed and like Lincecum. The Freak is a fan favorite
. He is a key to twochampionships. He has won two Cy Young Awards.
5. Even pitching poorly the past two years, Lincecum went to the bullpen
during the 2012 postseason and was a vital weapon, plus he threw a no-hitter
this year and struck out about the same average per nine innings (8.79) as
likely Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (8.85).Kershaw and Adam Wainwright (each
with 66 starts) were the only NL pitchers to start more often than Lincecum
(65) the past two years, offsetting some of the worries his Freakish delivery
would cause injury. In 2013 Lincecum had a 4.37 ERA and the Giants feel it was
inflated because 12 of his inherited runners scored (the second-highest total
in the majors). You may remember, for example, he left his next-to-last start,
Sept. 20 at Yankee Stadium, with the bases loaded and two outs, and the score
1-1. Reliever George Kontos wasgreeted by an Alex Rodriguez grand slam.
6. Lincecum’s fastball has dropped 2 mph on average the past two years (from
92 to 90). But, Evans said, Lincecum came to peace he has to keep throwing it
and just spot it better to make his off-speed repertoire work. The Giants’
feeling was Lincecum came to camp in better shape this year and executed better
pitch-to-pitch than in the disastrous 2012 regular season (5.18 ERA). There
is still work to be done, Evans explained, notably getting Lincecum to pitch
down in the zone more because when the righty is up he gets beat up badly.
Though the Giants do not think a Cy is returning soon, they do feel
Lincecum is evolving and — in Evans’ words — “has upside and we are not
sure there are many guys in this free-agent market you could say that about.”
7. Put all of this together and San Francisco believed on the open market,
Lincecum would have had suitors at a significant salary and — just as vital —
it might have had to pay more to find his replacement. Lincecum was willing to
do a short-term deal to try to reestablish his value — he is just 29 — and go
back into the market soon to try to chase the mega-deal. Since the risk was
only two years and the Giants accepted they had to pay a premium to keep him
from getting onto the free-agent market when the World Series ends, they were
willing to try to find common ground. They figured it needed to be more than
the two years at $29 million that would come via the tenders and less than the
two-year, $40 million deal he was just concluding. Thus, they came to two years
at $35 million.
“Obviously, for us, the perfect numbers is always lower,” Evans said. “At
the same time, getting him off the market and keeping him a Giant on a short-
term deal was very attractive.”
大致翻译一下
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为什么巨人不认为花35M/2Y签Lincecum是件疯狂的事情
巨人助理GM Bobby Evans提供了几点说明:
1. 巨人是可以提供QO的等值报价(14.1M)给Lincecum，再加上来年的延长合约，也差不多
是29M/2Y，跟现在的报价也没差太多
2. Linceum将会拒绝这份报价并且成为FA进入市场，而经由今年7月份的补强大限，巨人
也确信有几支球队会对Lincecum提出报价，而且FA后势必价格会上涨。可能的竞争对手
是大都会和洋基(如果没再和黑田续签或是没抢到田中求败)。
3.巨人想保有Lincecum,Matt Cain,Madison Bumgarner为明年的先发三人组(Vogelsong可
能不会捡Option另外降薪签回)比起只掌握双先发当然三先发是比较好 (如果能抢到田中
求败又是另一个可能...)
4.Lincecum是巨人选的、自己养的、2次世界大赛的关键、拿到2次赛扬、并且是球迷的最
爱，感情因素BJ4
5.去年Lincecum虽然有个很糟糕的球季，但是k/9和书僮一样漂亮(8.79和8.85)。先发
场次只比书僮和Wainwright少一场，这也抵消了一些认为他诡异的投球姿势会让他受伤
的疑虑。另外Lincecum的ERA为4.37，高涨的ERA有很大的原因是垒上有人被接替的投手
放回来的分数为全联盟第二高(inherited runners scored不会翻请高手帮忙QQ)
6.虽然Licecum的速球均速比去年掉了2mph (92>90)，不过整体来说比起去年要来的好。
但需要努力的工作还有很多，而Evans认为Licecum是个还在不断进化的投手，这个在FA
市场上是很少见的
7.综合以上几点，Lincecum被评估如果放上FA会有对手提供不错的报价，而要找到替代方
案可能会花更多钱，而用短约来证明Lincecem的效益是OK的阿，他才29岁耶。巨人评估
2年的风险是可接受且花顶级薪水签下来比起放到FA要来的划算。彼此的共识就是29M跟
40M之间，因此35M出线。
"对球队来说，能够用更低的薪资签下来当然更好"
"但只用短约就能够让他离开市场并留在巨人实在很有吸引力"
Evans说~