Ellsbury's Struggles and the Red Sox
Just a couple of years ago, Jacoby Ellsbury came out of nowhere of have one of
the best seasons by a position player in years.He hit .321/.376/.552 (149 wRC+) with 32 home runs while playing center field that impressed both the Gold
Glove voters and various fielding metrics.Although Ellsbury had been a first-
round draft pick by the Red Sox in 2005 and had been a very good prospect in
his minor-league days,it is unlikely many saw 2011 coming.While Ellsbury was
amazingly fast — he stole 70 bases in 2009, one of only three players to steal
70 or more in a single season since 2000 — and had good contact skills, he had
not shown anything close to that sort of power.In fact,he had never hit double
digits in home runs in any major or minor league season prior to 2011.
It would have been unfair to expect Ellsbury to repeat his 2011 performance,but
even so,he has been disappointing since then.His 2012 was derailed by an early
shoulder injury and he ended up playing only 74 games while hitting just .271/
.313/.370 (83 wRC+).Ellsbury is off to an even worse start this year at .242/
.307/355 (72 wRC+),and while 212 plate appearances are not many,they are not
nothing,at this point,either.The Red Sox are obviously in contention,and are
arguably the favorites to win the East at this point.The divisional and playoff
races look to be very tight,so contenders have to make every decision count.
Figuring out what Ellsbury can offer or if they need to lessen his role is
obviously a big decision for them.It is not that Ellsbury has to repeat his
2011 performance — far from it.He does not need to be a superstar for the Red
Sox to have a chance. The questions are whether or not Ellsbury is going to
keep flat-lining and how long Boston should wait to find out.The Sox are
competing even with him hitting horribly now,but that is not something they
want to live with if they do not have to do so.
The obvious place to look for influence of small samples on under-or over-
performance is BABIP, of course.Ellsbury does have a low BABIP so far this year
at .274,especially for fast,left-handed hitter.As Royals fans watching Mike
Moustakas this year can tell you,not all low BABIPs are created equally,either,
something to which I will return.It is also worth nothing,though,that Ellsbury
had a .304 BABIP in 2012,and his line still was poor.
In some ways,Ellsbury might actually better at this plate in 2013 than in 2011.
Ellsbury has never walked much,but his walk rate is currently the highest of
his career.Ellsbury has always been good at making contact,and his strikeout
rate is also the lowest it has been since 2010,and his contact rate is
currently at a career high. Low strikeouts and high contact rate correlate
pretty closely,as one would expect,and along with walk rate,they gain meaning
pretty early relative to other metrics.
Plate discipline is not everything,but it is a very big thing,and Ellsbury
maintaining and perhaps even improving his approach is a good sign.
Nevertheless,it is clear that not all as well.One of the big culprits is
something else that stabilizes pretty quickly:power,or,more specifically in
Ellsbury's case,home run power.Again,I doubt many expected Ellsbury to have
another 30 home run season even in the immediate aftermath of 2011.Still,it was
a pretty big leap forward for a player in his prime.Just a bit of power
combined with Ellsbury's contact skills could lead to good things,as witnessed
in 2011. However, his isolated power the last two seasons has dropped even
below his pre-2011 levels (I am excluding his 84 plate appearances from the
injury-riddled 2010),to .099 and .093 respectively.In 2012 and 2013,Ellsbury
has actually hit doubles and triples on balls in play at a greater rate than
he did in his 2007-2009 seasons.The problem has been twofold: a) as mentioned
above,he simply has not had as many hits on balls in play the last two years,
and b) he is not hitting the ball out of play as much, i.e. home runs.
The home run issue is quite noticeable if one focuses on the differences
between 2011 and the last two years.Ellsbury's rate of home runs on contact has
actually lower this year and last than his first two season in the majors,
though,so it is not all just an issue of not living up to his monster 2011
season.His home runs per fly ball rate is also way down this year.
The home run issue may connect with the BABIP issue.I hesitate to say much
about the impact of injuries,but it might be Ellsbury is still dealing with the
aftermath of last year's shoulder injury.Red Sox manager John Farrell has also
mentioned Ellsbury is still working on his timing,and it is not crazy to wonder
if the two issues (recovering from a shoulder injury and getting this timing
back) are related.If Ellsbury simply is not making good contact as frequently
despite more frequent contact,then it would be understandable if his batted
balls do not go out of the yard or are more easily fielded than in the past.
Ellsbury is currently popping up fly balls at a Moustakas-ian rate.Saying "
Ellsbury is not hitting the ball as hard" may be so simple an answer as to be
unilluminating,but perhaps given that he has had a shoulder injury in the
relatively recent past, not totally uninteresting.
If that is the case, is it good or bad news? I have already gone outside of my
comfort zone on injury recovery speculation,so I do not know.The question is
what the Red Sox should do.As as been mentioned,the situation is complicated
not only by the Red Sox being in contention,but by Ellsbury's impending free
agency.The Red Sox need to put their best team on the field,but the player wants
to strut his stuff every day.The team could try and platoon Ellsbury if they
have a suitable candidate,but it is not clear that they do.
The issue is not so much Ellsbury's terrible performance against lefties this
year,though.He has been bad overall,and his career platoon split is actually
relatively small for a lefty.Ellsbury has made it clear that he likes leading
off,although it is not obvious why,with signs pointing to Ellsbury taking off
after 2013,the Red Sox need to go out of their way to cater to his desires.It
would not make a huge difference,but the Red Sox might want to consider having
Shane Victorino lead off against lefties,against whom Victorino is much better.
Hits may start to drop in (go over the wall) for Ellsbury at such a rate that
two weeks from now this post and others like it seem like silly,early-season
hand wringing.But both Ellsbury and the Red Sox have a lot at stake,and if
there is more than just random variance underlying his inability to drive the
ball effectively,they will probably want to do something other than just wait
him out.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ellsburys-struggles-and-the-red-sox/
YEAR TEAM G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
2007 BOS 33 116 20 41 59 7 1 3 18 8 0 15 9 0 .353 .394 .509 .902
2008 BOS 145 554 98 155 218 22 7 9 47 41 2 80 50 11 .280 .336 .394 .729
2009 BOS 153 624 94 188 259 27 10 8 60 49 3 74 70 12 .301 .355 .415 .770
2010 BOS 18 78 10 15 19 4 0 0 5 4 0 9 7 1 .192 .241 .244 .485
2011 BOS 158 660 119 212 364 46 5 32 105 52 1 98 39 15 .321 .376 .552 .928
2012 BOS 74 303 43 82 112 18 0 4 26 19 0 43 14 3 .271 .313 .370 .682
2013 BOS 46 197 25 49 67 7 4 1 14 19 0 25 13 2 .249 .318 .340 .658
这篇大概就讨论Ellsbury长打能力
11年的成绩是不是Fluke 12年季初肩膀受伤开刀回来
成绩几乎都下修(除了盗垒) 今年成绩也不佳 全垒打只有一支
不过盗垒能力依然存在
另外OPS+只有新人年(131)和11年破100(146)
历年ISO:
07:.115
08:.114
09:.114
10:.051
11:.230
12:.099
13:.091
好可惜啊....
11年打这么好 进明星赛、美联MVP票选第二、金手套、外野手银棒奖
30-30的核弹头
难道真的只是昙花一现? 还是说肩膀受伤真的有影响?
红袜今年球季结束还会跟他续约吗?