http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/2/20/4006108/kenny-lofton-prospect-retrosp
ective
一样不求甚解翻译 有错请指正
We've looked recently at some "tools bust" prospects like Delmon Young and
Ruben Rivera. It is time to switch gears and look at an outstanding success
story from the tools players category: Kenny Lofton.
在看过杨大猛以及Ruben Rivera这种有工具却失败的案例后 我们来看看成功的案例
Kenny Lofton
Kenny Lofton was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 17th round in 1988, out
of the University of Arizona. He was best-known as a basketball player in
college, where he was the starting point guard for the Wildcats. He is one of
only two men to play in the college basketball Final Four and the MLB World
Series, the other being former pitcher Tim Stoddard.
1988被太空人17伦选上 一般人比较知道他是亚利桑那大学的得分后卫 他是两个曾经打过
大学篮球准决赛跟MLB世界大赛的两人之一 另一个 Tim Stoddard
With just a handful of college baseball games under his belt, Lofton was
considered very raw as a baseball player, but promising due to his blazing
speed and superior overall athleticism. His pro debut was not particularly
successful: he hit .214/.286/.273 in 48 games for Auburn in the New York-Penn
League. He stole 26 bases in 30 attempts, but the lack of power combined with
a high strikeout rate (51 in 48 games) was a poor combination and did not
auger well for his future. His defense was rough, though the tools were
there. At this point he'd have rated as a Grade C prospect and a long shot,
although "with higher potential" would be an appropriate modifier.
Lofton相较于篮球之下 对棒球比较生疏 但有飞快的速度以及很好的运动能力第一个球季
不怎样 New York-PennLeague 48场 打.214/.286/.273 30次尝试盗垒 26次成功 欠缺炮瓦
跟过高的被三振率 对他的未来是一大问题 守备方面也太粗糙 不过工具摆在那就是
Sickles给他C,还有很长的路要走 虽然有很高的潜能就是
Lofton returned to Auburn in 1989, hitting .263/.336/.309 with 26 steals in
34 games. The Astros saw signs of progress, so he was promoted to Low-A
Asheville in August, where he hit .329/.421/.390 in 22 games. Overall, at the
two levels he hit .292/.372/.344 with 40 steals in 51 attempts, 26 walks and
40 strikeouts in 192 at-bats. He was clearly making progress developing a
feel for baseball and good leadoff skills. Lack of power was an issue, but no
one expected that from him at that point. I would probably have stayed with a
Grade C given the small sample sizes involved, perhaps a Grade C+.
1989在Auburn打34场.263/.336/.309 26盗 太空人看到进步 8月把他升上低阶1A
22场打出 .329/.421/.390 整年度.292/.372/.344 192AB 26BB 40K 51次尝试盗垒
40次成功 他很明显的逐渐掌握打棒球的感觉跟打一棒的技巧 缺炮瓦是个问题
但没人会在这个阶段期待他长出炮瓦 Sickles在这个阶段给C 或者C+
Lofton took a huge step forward in 1990, hitting .331/.407/.395 with 62 steals
for Osceola in the High-A Florida State League. He drew 61 walks in 556 plate
appearances, reduced his strikeout rate, and continued to refine his defensive
skills in the outfield. Baseball America rated him the Number Five prospect
in the FSL.
Lofton在1990年大进步 打.331/.407/.395 62盗 556打席凹到61BB 也降低被三振率
外野的防守也进步并修正 BA评价他是FSL(佛罗里达联盟)第五名新秀
The main concern here was that he was already 23 and thus a bit old for the
league, but given his lack of amateur experience, it was reasonable to cut
him some slack. A similar prospect nowadays would probably get a strong B- or
maybe a B from me.
这里主要的问题是 他23岁了 在这联盟有点老 但因为对棒球比较缺经验 所以不对他太苛
求 如果现在有这样状况的新秀 Sickles会给他不错的B-球员或者是B
In 1991 he jumped directly to Tucson in the Pacific Coast League, skipping
Double-A. He hit .308/.367/.417 with 30 steals and 52 walks for Tucson,
with 19 doubles and 17 triples. His walk rate dropped, and his stolen base
success ratio was unimpressive (23 caught stealing). Considering that he had
skipped Double-A, it was a very good season, but Tucson and the PCL were a
friendly environment.
1991年他跳过2A 升上3A 打出.308/.367/.417 30盗 52BB 19支2B 17支3B 他的BB率降低了
盗垒成功率也不高 23次盗垒失败 但考量他跳过2A 这算是很不错的球季 即使PCL是对打
者友善的球场
He played in 20 games for the Astros and hit just .203/.253/.216 in 74 at-bats.
Nowadays, I would view a similar player as likely becoming a valuable fourth
outfielder due to their speed and defense, but I'd worry about him hitting
enough to play regularly. I'd probably give out another Grade B-.
他在太空人打20场 74AB .203/.253/.216 这样的球员在现在Sickles会认为他是有价值的
4号外野手 因为他的速度与守备 会担心他无法胜任先发 评价会是B-
The Astros traded Lofton and a minor league pitcher named Dave Rohde to the
Cleveland Indians for pitcher Willie Blair and catcher Eddie Taubensee.
Loften opened 1992 in the Cleveland lineup, and his rookie year was very
successful: .285/.362/.365 with 66 steals to lead the American League. His
defense was terrific and he finished with a WAR of 6.3, OPS+107, finishing
second in the Rookie of the Year balloting.
太空人把他跟一名小联盟球员Dave Rohde送到印地安人换来投手Willie Blair跟捕手
Eddie Taubensee Lofton 1992开季就在印地安人阵中 打出非常好的菜鸟年
.285/.362/.365 66盗(美联第一) 防守超棒 当年WAR 6.3 OPS+ 107 在新人王票选第二
Lofton followed up with a .325/.408/.408, 70-steal, 7.3 WAR campaign in 1993,
and it just got better from there. He made contact, controlled the strike zone
reasonably well, and developed enough power to keep the pitchers honest,
hitting double-digit homers seven times in his career. Even considering the
robust offensive context in which he was playing in the late 90s and early 00s
, that was pretty shocking considering his early lack of pop. His OPS+ was
better than league average for 11 years in a row. He made six All Star teams.
1993打出.325/.408/.408 70盗 7.3WAR 他Contact不错 好球带也控制得很好 也培养足够
的炮瓦去对付投手 在他生涯有七个球季打超过10支HR 即使90年末 00年初是打者成绩较好
的年代 但以他生涯早期的小联盟成绩能长成这样 还是颇令人震惊 他的OPS+连续11年
高于联盟水平 入选6次明星赛
As good as his hitting was, his outfield was genuinely spectacular, at least
if you believe TZ and UZR: he finished +114.5 runs on defense alone in his
career, boosting his WAR to 66.2 combined with an overall offensive line of
.299/.372/.423, OPS+107, wRC+110.
他的守备更是棒 如果你相信TZ跟UZR的话 生涯守备+114.5分 加上他的进攻
.299/.372/.423, OPS+107, wRC+110 生涯WAR是66.2
Comparable Players to Kenny Lofton, by Bill James Sim Score
Jimmy Ryan (Excellent player from the 19th century)
Tim Raines (I think he belongs in the hall)
Harry Hooper (HoF)
George Van Haltren (Excellent player from the 19th century)
Ken Griffey Sr (he wasn't as good as his kid, but he was very good)
Max Carey (HoF)
Brett Butler
Fred Clarke (HoF)
Ichiro Suzuki
Wally Moses
Bill James把他跟以上几个球员比较
Lofton's 66.2 career WAR ranks him 14th All-Time among center fielders, in a
range with Duke Snider (71.8), Richie Ashburn (67.7), Max Carey (66.1), and
19th century Billy Hamilton (65.6).
Lofton的 WAR在中外野手里面排14名
Lofton is close to a best-case example of a pure athlete with little
experience figuring out how to play baseball. In the minors, Lofton always
showed good speed and athleticism, but he didn't know how to play baseball
at first. His on-base abilities took a bit of time to develop, and he never
showed much long-drive power in the minors. But he thrived once he turned his
attention to baseball full-time in 1990. Looking at him in 1988 or 1989,
you'd never think he could become the player he did.
Lofton可说是 有很好的运动能力缺乏棒球经验却成功的最佳案例 在小联盟可以看到
他的速度以及运动能力 但却掌握不好怎么打棒球 练提高上垒率让他花了不少时间
在小联盟没展现啥长打 但在1990他开始全心打棒球后开始成长 看过他1988 1989的成绩
你不会相信他会变成这样的好球员
我比较好奇他当时为何没打篮球 反而选棒球 当时他没机会进NBA吗?