※ 引述《joey1149 (Joey)》之铭言：
: 如题,
: 如果是支持面与反对面好像有例子
: 1.赞成:
: MLB 04 07年的红袜 08年的费城人 09年的洋基
: 中华职棒 陈金锋刚加那年的La New , 统一狮
: NBA 07年的马刺 08年老赛 09,10年湖人 11年小牛 12年热火
: 2.反对:
: MLB 08,10年的洋基 12年的 马林鱼,天使 (堆钱效果不如预期)
: MLB 06,11年的红雀 10,12年的巨人
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-myth-of-going-for-broke/
I looked at each team since 2002 whose overall payroll has jumped up by at
least 20 percent during the offseason (payrolls have been increasing across
baseball at a fairly steady rate of about four percent over this time).
There have been 79 teams with payroll increases that qualified for this
sample, and I looked at each team's change in win total from the previous
season to see whether the payroll increase would coincide with an increase in
wins. On average, the teams in the sample saw a change of -0.96 wins in the
season in which they increased payroll. That's right, not only did these
teams not improve, they actually, on average, lost one more game than in the
previous season.
从2002年以来有79支球队在隔年增加超过20%的薪资
得到的成果是-0.96胜
Of the 79 teams that increased payroll by 20 percent from 2002-12, 47 had a
payroll below 75 percent of the median in the year before the increase. On
average these teams lost 1.7 more games in the season after the increase.
对47支小市场球队来说 成果是-1.7胜
I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but the average increase in
wins was -0.26 (essentially negligible) for the 23 teams that had a higher
than median payroll in the year before they increased payroll by 20 percent
or more.
对23支大市场球队来说 成果是-0.26胜
Of the 79 teams in my sample, 28 won at least 88 games in the season before
they increased payroll. My hypothesis would be that these 28 teams will have
increased their payroll either to get back to the playoffs or get in after
being in thick of playoff contention the year before.
What was the effect of the increase in payroll on these 28 teams?
Of those teams, 14 won 88 or more games again after increasing their payroll;
the other 14 failed to repeat their success> Again, it seemed that the
increase in payroll had no overall effect on a team's ability to repeat its
success.
有28支球队原本是88胜以上的强队 补强之后有一半赢超过88场
另一半赢少于88场
Instead, my real point is that an increase in payroll does not guarantee
results.
结论就是看起来洒钱好像不是很有用
(注: 这结果应该不难理解 由于MLB特殊的薪资制度 会进入FA的多半是年过30进入衰退期
的球星 花大钱买衰退球星的效益不高是正常的)