刚刚看了一下
RE24 (runs above average by the 24 base/out states): RE24 is the difference
in run expectancy (RE) between the start of the play and the end of the play.
That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over
the course of the season, each players’ RE24 for individual plays is added
up to get his season total RE24.
RE24指的是一个打席前后球队得分期望值的变化
Calculation Example: In game 4 of the 2007 World Series, the RE for the Red
Sox to start the inning was .52. When Jacoby Ellsbury doubled off Aaron Cook
in the very first at-bat in the game, the Red Sox were then expected to score
1.15 runs for the rest of the inning. The difference or RE24 was .63 runs.
Ellsbury was credited +.63 runs and Aaron Cook credited with -.63 runs.
举例: 一开赛得分期望值为0.52, Ellsbury 打一支二垒安打, 之后球队的得分期望值
为1.15, 于是Ellsbury 可得到 1.15-0.52= 0.63 分
所以我有点怀疑 Dave Cameron 举的例子到底正不正确
0.33的得分期望值打了一只3 分全垒打, 之后球队的得分期望值应该不是3, 因为
还有得分的机会, 这是小细节可以讨论
重点是, 只要是数据都有盲点
1. Cabrera的 IBB有 17次, 而他的 batting average with RISP 有 0.356, 代表
原本可以有较高的分数, 因为敬远只赚到一点
2. 作者有提到 Cabrera 多了23次 1+ runs, 因为长打较多, 而trout 靠避免双杀
等对球队有害的play追上甚至超前. 但我也可以解读如果有较多次big plays,
一次灌好几分, 是不是较可能直接让球队获胜? 如果只是常常让一垒有人变一二垒
有人,对球队的获胜较无贡献? 因为这是期望值差而不是真正的得分