Orioles Defying the Odds
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/orioles-defying-the-odds/
by Jeff Zimmerman - September 11, 2012
Over this past weekend, the Orioles split a 4 game series with the New York
Yankees. Baltimore was able win 2 games and stay only 1 game behind the
Yankess in the AL East standings, even though they were outscored 31 to 23.
This trend of winning while being outscored is not uncommon for the Orioles
this season.
上周金莺跟洋基展开四连战。金莺赢了两场 目前只落后美东龙头洋基一场胜差
虽然这系列赛洋基得了31分 金莺则是23分
这赢球的趋势其实对于今年的金莺来说是很正常的
The most remarkable part about the Orioles keeping pace with the elite teams
in the AL is that they have done it with a negative run differential, (608
Runs scored vice 637 Runs Allowed). It may seem that it would not be too
uncommon for a team to be a few wins over .500 and have a allowed a few more
runs then they have scored, but it isn’t. Only the San Francisco Giants
achieved the feat in 2011 (86-76, -17 runs) and no teams in 2010. Since 1962,
when both leagues went to 162 games, 54 teams have been able to reach this
feat, or just about 1 per season. The average run differential for the teams
was -18.6 runs and the average number of games over .500 was 6.8 games.
金莺这季与其他美联菁英球队并驾齐驱
而且最让人意外的是他们是负得失分(得分608,失分637)
当一个球队胜率超过5成 有负得失分的状况是不寻常的
在2011年只有巨人(86-76 -17分) 2010年则没有
自从1962年开始(两联盟都是打162场) 总共有54队达成此项壮举
平均得失分是-18.6分 胜率超过5成的胜败场差则是6.8场
Baltimore is doing more than defying the Lords of Math, they have a chance of
having the best record ever for a team with a negative run differential. Of
the 54 teams with a negative run differential, only 11 have been 10 games or
more over .500.
金莺这季的表现是在违背数学之神(XDDDDD) 他们极有可能成为最佳负得失分的球队
在上述54队中 只有11队有赢超过10场
Team Season W L Diff RS RA Diff
Arizona Diamondbacks 2007 90 72 18 712 732 -20
San Francisco Giants 1997 90 72 18 784 793 -9
New York Mets 1984 90 72 18 652 676 -24
Baltimore Orioles 2012 78 62 16 608 637 -29
Seattle Mariners 2007 88 74 14 794 813 -19
Baltimore Orioles 1981 59 46 13 429 437 -8
San Francisco Giants 1982 87 75 12 673 687 -14
Houston Astros 2008 86 75 11 712 743 -31
Boston Red Sox 2006 86 76 10 820 825 -5
San Francisco Giants 2011 86 76 10 570 578 -8
New York Mets 1972 83 73 10 528 578 -50
Houston Astros 1989 86 76 10 647 669 -22
The best a team has ever done in the W-L column was 18 games over .500 (3
times). The key for those teams wasn’t their great record in close games.
All teams that are 18 games over .500 have to perform decently in 1-run games
to have that good of a record. The difference for the 3 teams is how they do
in blowouts. Here is a graph with the percentage of times the teams had a
certain point difference.
在负得失分的情况下 最佳情况是赢超过18场 这一共有出现3次
这些队伍在一分差的比赛有相当好的纪录 差别在于这3对在大爆炸的情况
以下用图表来表示


Normally teams that are 18 games over .500 are blown out 5% of the time and
blow teams out 7% of the time. The 3 teams instead get blown out 9% of the
time and win in blowouts in 5% of their games.
一般球队在5成胜率之上 且胜败场差18场的情况下
大概有5%的球赛会被对方轰炸 而自己轰炸对方机率是7%
而上述这3队(负得失分且胜败场超过18场的)
有9%的球赛被对方轰炸 只有5%的时间是霸凌别人
The Orioles have two distinction from the distribution. First, they have
rarely lose by 1 runs (5%). They have lost by 2, 3, 4 and 5 runs more than
they have be one run. Also, Baltimore has won by 2 runs more than average.
今年金莺有两个走向
1. 他们几乎不输1分差比赛(5%)
2. 他们输2,3,4,5分甚至之上的比赛 比1分还多
对了他们赢两分差的比赛也是高于平均
Not one root cause exists for the discrepancy between the wins and runs the
Orioles are seeing, but several different causes add up. The main way a team
can have some control over their difference in runs scored and allowed is how
their pitching staff performs in certain instances. Teams can just give up in
blowouts and let them get those games get out of hand. On the other hand,
they can then make sure they stay in every close game with a good bullpen.
基本上球队在爆炸的情况下就放弃了 另一方面依靠着好的牛棚把比分接近的比赛维持住
The Orioles’ starters are 9th in the A.L. with an ERA of 4.58 ERA and 10th
in QS. The starters have had a problem of keeping the game close and getting
to the bullpen. Once the bullpen takes over, they have been lights out. In
the AL, they are 1st in WPA and shutdowns and 4th with a team 3.07 ERA. For
example, the Orioles have correctly leveraged Jim Johnson, their closer, in
close games and he has performed great. He has the league’s highest WPA
among relievers.
今年金莺的先发成绩: ERA:4.58 排美联第9 QS则排第10
先发投手群无法有效将比分控制在接近的状态 但是当牛棚上来一切都不一样了
在美联 金莺牛棚在WPA及关门(上来不失分) ERA则是3.07(排第4)
金莺守护神J.Johnson有全联盟后援投手中最高的WPA
Another way the Orioles have been able to win close games is because of their
performance in extra inning games. They are 12-2 and have scored 25 runs and
only allowed 5.
另一个金莺能赢接近比赛的原因是他们在延长赛的极佳表现
12胜2败 得25分 仅仅失5分
The Orioles have been defying the odds by being 16 games over .500 with
negative run differential. They kept up the trend this weekend with their
series with the Yankees. While it has been a unique way to get a winning
record, it has worked for them this season.
金莺正在对抗前辈的纪录(目前胜败场差16场,5成胜率以上且为负得失分)
这已经成为他们今年赛季独特的取胜纪录

有没有这些球队隔年成积?

逆风高飞

猛

赢都赢一两分 炸都炸的彻底的意思 ...

查了一下，近10年金鸟中，2004年金鸟的DIFF是+12

不过战绩却是78W84L 胜率0.481

今天战绩追平了吧

"只有巨人在2011年做过"应为"2011年只有巨人做过"比较好.

第一段是不是讲"并非不寻常",然后后面才讲出其实不寻常??

这球队心脏超大颗XD

让我想到前几年中职兄弟象 还是胖伸当粽A的时候也都这样

一落赛就丢新人或败处吃完 指要领先就是狂操胜利组

球员一冷下来就会很惨.....

比赛被炸了就让对方打者打个开心 打累了明天就打不出来了 XD

第一段翻的不太准确

借转

推一个