Re: Why I Wouldn’t Have Signed Matt Cain

楼主: hunterqiji (hunter)   2012-04-03 09:38:20
翻译一下关键部分
※ 引述《abc12812 ()》之铭言:
: http://tinyurl.com/7wykqlv
: A couple of hours ago, the Giants announced that they reached an agreement
: with Matt Cain on a five year deal worth just over $110 million. Wendy Thurm
: has already recapped the contract and why this is probably fair market value
: for a quality pitcher with no health problems headed into his age 27 season.
: And, she’s probably right – if the Giants wanted to keep Cain, they weren’
: t going to be able to do it for less than this. This isn’t a situation where
: they just overpaid irrationally. Their options were either to sign him for
: this price or watch him get more money from another team next winter. They
: chose the former.
老人和Cain达成超过$110M的新合约。事实上﹐巨人基本不可能以更低的约绑住Cain.
其实这不是非理性的overpay, 他们要么现在签﹐要不下个冬天看他以更高的价格签约
其他球队。老人选择了前者﹐但我(作者)宁愿选择后者。
: I would have chosen the latter.
: Matt Cain is a good pitcher. How good he’d perform in another set of
: circumstances – different ballpark, different division, different pitching
: coach, etc… – isn’t quite as well determined, but we’ve got a pretty good
: idea that Cain is good at preventing runs in the context he’s currently in.
: Over the last six years, he’s thrown 1,300 innings and posted an ERA- of 80,
: meaning that he prevented runs at a rate of 20 percent above average.
: Quantity and quality is a good package. It just doesn’t predict future
: success as well as you might think.
: Starting in 2002, here are some rolling six year windows where pitchers threw
: at least 1,000 innings, the examples of pitchers around Cain’s age that
: performed in a similar manner, and how they did going forward.
: 2002-2007
: Carlos Zambrano, ages 21-26: 1,186 IP, 75 ERA-, 87 FIP-, 92 xFIP-
: While Cain has better command than Zambrano, both got significantly better
: results than their BB/K/GB rates would have suggested for a long period of
: time. Like Cain, Zambrano was extremely durable, and had shouldered heavy
: workloads while still taking the mound every five days. However, 2007 was the
: last year that Zambrano managed 200 innings in a season, and he’s been a
: significant disappointment ever since.
: Jake Peavy, ages 21-26: 1,087 IP, 83 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Peavy and Cain have a lot in common. Lots of success in pitchers parks in the
: NL West, got better as they aged, and showed a strong track record heading
: into their age 27 seasons. 2007 was Peavy’s best year, and marked the third
: consecutive year he’d topped the 200 inning level. He hasn’t gotten over
: 174 since, struggling with both health issues and diminished performance.
: Mark Buehrle, ages 23-28: 1,357 IP, 83 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 95 xFIP-
: Finally, some good news. Buehrle’s another guy who has consistently beat his
: peripherals and showed extreme durability early in his career. That hasn’t
: changed at all in the last four years, as he’s still the exact same 200
: inning workhorse he’s always been.
: 2003-2008
: CC Sabathia, ages 22-27: 1,269 IP, 78 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 84 xFIP-
: Sabathia was another young workhorse who has managed to both stay healthy and
: stay excellent, but it’s worth noting that he succeeded with a more
: traditional skillset of limiting walks and getting a ton of strikeouts. He’s
: always been excellent at the three things a pitcher has the most control
: over, so for him, it was more of a question of staying healthy rather than
: sustaining abnormal run prevention skills. He stayed healthy and has been
: fantastic since.
: Josh Beckett, ages 23-28: 1,057 IP, 86 ERA-, 80 FIP-, 82 xFIP-
: Beckett couldn’t match Cain’s track record for health and durability, but
: he was one of the best pitchers in baseball in his mid-20s, and strung
: together four consecutive seasons with at least 175 innings pitched. Yet, his
: three years since have brought declined in performance and durability, and he
: ’s regressed somewhat from his prior form.
: John Lackey, ages 24-29: 1,216 IP, 86 ERA-, 88 FIP-, 90 xFIP-
: Like Cain, Lackey’s value was built through quantity rather than just sheer
: dominance, and he provided the Angels with a long run of solid but
: unspectacular performances. His last three years have been a weird mix of
: good, bad, and ugly, and now he’s going to spend the 2012 season rehabbing
: from Tommy John surgery.
: Brandon Webb, ages 24-29: 1,315 IP, 71 ERA-, 75 FIP-, 75 xFIP-
: Webb was the total package, combining elite performance with the ability to
: throw 200 innings year in and year out. He was in the running for the title
: of the best pitcher in baseball. Then, he blew out his arm, and he’s thrown
: just four innings in the Major Leagues over the last three years. His career,
: at this point, appears to be over.
: 2004-2009
: Dan Haren, ages 23-28: 1,154 IP, 80 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 81 xFIP-
: Another success story, and another guy with a lot of similarities to Cain –
: extreme durability, began as more of a good innings eater, and then steadily
: improved into a legitimate frontline guy. He’s sustained his excellence even
: after moving back to the American League, but like Sabathia, it’s been built
: on a foundation of low walks and high strikeouts.
: These eight guys represent a pretty mixed bag of future performance after
: being identified as durable, quality starters early in their careers. Haren,
: Sabathia, and Buehrle all show that Cain isn’t destined to turn into a
: pumpkin, but Zambrano, Peavy, Webb, Lackey, and Beckett suggest that past
: success doesn’t guarantee future success either.
以上列举了8投手的很多方面﹐耐久力﹐优质先发等等。Haren,CC,Buehrle, 表明Cain不是
注定成为南瓜(应该是假货的寓意)﹐但大Z,Peavy, Webb, 发球机﹐北极则暗示过去的好
成绩并不能保証未来的成功。
: In reality, Cain’s future is something of a coin flip. He may or may not
: stay healthy. He may or may not continue to prevent hits on balls in play.
: History is littered with similar pitchers who have gone either way, and when
: you’re betting $100+ million on a guy, you should get better than 50-50 odds
: that he’ll continue to perform reasonably well going forward.
事实上﹐Cain的未来成功的概率就像扔硬币一样﹐50-50. 但球队在你身上投资$100+m,你
应该比50%成功可能更好才对。
: At $22 million per year over the next five years, Matt Cain essentially needs
: to avoid all problems and continue to pitch as well as he has previously. He
: might do just that, but there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall or
: that his performance will head the wrong way sooner than later. There’s just
: too much risk here for a team like the Giants to take on this kind of
: contract, especially with so many other pressing needs in the organization.
每年$22m﹐Cain需要表现的和过去一样好﹐但却是有一定的风险他的手臂不行了。
: The Giants have a built-in pitching factory with AT&T Park and Dave Righetti
: in place, and given that they’ve had a lot of success maximizing the returns
: they get on importing pitchers from other organizations, they’re in a unique
: position to avoid paying market rates for pitching and instead invest that
: capital in getting some quality position players instead. It might not have
: been the popular thing to do, but letting Cain walk at the end of the year
: and throwing $22 million at a guy who swings the bat for a living may have
: been a better use of fund.
老人处在一个独特的位置, 可以避免用市场价签下一个投手而签一些其他位置的优秀球
员。也许让Cain在赛季末离开﹐而用$22m去签下其他打者才是更好的利用球队的资金。
作者: nolander (自己国家自己救)   2012-04-03 09:41:00
哪里有说他手臂不行了?
楼主: hunterqiji (hunter)   2012-04-03 09:42:00
there’s a real risk that his arm is going to fall
作者: OoyaoO (你今天崩潰了嗎 囧)   2012-04-03 09:45:00
要签长约每条手臂都嘛有坏掉的风险 但是以他连续5年200IP的成绩 讲价钱的时候谈这个只会被打枪吧
作者: didilala (強風吹拂)   2012-04-03 09:46:00
我还是觉得这各约值得.CAIN真的很稳定.在各队也都是前2号
作者: noahlin (该怎么说呢)   2012-04-03 09:50:00
真的进FA也很难签到比22M更高的价码了吧...
作者: notmuchmoney (真的不错....)   2012-04-03 09:51:00
前2号要花到22M来绑 不一定值得...
作者: Alexander13 (Alex)   2012-04-03 09:52:00
可惜历年胜场数比较悲情 不然会更抢手
作者: vg175 (非典型廢言)   2012-04-03 09:53:00
更新消息,最后一年选择权如果Cain因手肘或肩膀伤势进入DL并
作者: vg175 (非典型廢言)   2012-04-03 09:54:00
结束球季,选择权将不被执行
作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)   2012-04-03 10:05:00
there's a real risk那句话不是说Cain的手臂不行
作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)   2012-04-03 10:06:00
只是说投下每年22M 是很有风险的 这是绑长约必然要承担
作者: JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)   2012-04-03 10:07:00
因为作者是以"你现在没伤 不代表以后都没伤"的角度来看
作者: armyguy (十年後的大居)   2012-04-03 10:13:00
你现在没伤 不代表以后都没伤这个论点真是毫无意义,对每个
作者: armyguy (十年後的大居)   2012-04-03 10:14:00
人都嘛一样,谁知道将来的事,投资一定有风险,但以cain连5年
作者: armyguy (十年後的大居)   2012-04-03 10:15:00
200IP,平均ERA+125以上等级,5年后也只是31岁来说我觉得很
作者: armyguy (十年後的大居)   2012-04-03 10:17:00
合理,至于每年平均22M就见人见智,其实他的成绩绝对可当1号
作者: chiz2 (chiz2)   2012-04-03 10:21:00
老人要担心的是怎么让打线多打几分出来,你看那精美的林盲肠
作者: chiz2 (chiz2)   2012-04-03 10:22:00
去年莫名其妙吞了多少败
作者: taiwanrules (taiwanrules)   2012-04-03 10:22:00
Cain 应该是整联盟前15的投手 放到很多队都可以当ACE
作者: taiwanrules (taiwanrules)   2012-04-03 10:24:00
如果要像作者这样评论 那只能一年一签 问题是签的下吗
作者: danny789 (这其中一定有什么误会)   2012-04-03 10:28:00
"你现在没伤 不代表以后都没伤"=没说
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:31:00
其实每个人并不一样。
作者: maikxz (超级痛痛人)   2012-04-03 10:32:00
签约然后说以后会伤 是件很奇怪的事 那大家都一年一签就好可以照过往评估他是不是风险高的人来决定要给多大的约
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:33:00
有些人你就是知道他签长的风险会更大,譬如发球机。但是Cain签常约反而会觉得还好。*长
作者: maikxz (超级痛痛人)   2012-04-03 10:34:00
对 能够批评的就是这种约 是一个能拿出 ACE 身手 过往又没
作者: maikxz (超级痛痛人)   2012-04-03 10:37:00
有伤痛 又怎能预测他会受伤
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:37:00
而且这种例子其实很多阿,看看光芒抓谁放谁都可寻。
作者: ckevint (Can't live w/o music)   2012-04-03 10:40:00
又来了 讲到投手必提的队伍是吧 呵呵
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:43:00
其实就算是发球姬也有预料他会伤肘才有附带条件。
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:44:00
而且签约前的伤病史跟年纪也会是评估条件。
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 10:45:00
并不是说他一定机率这就是废话,这有高有低不是嘛?
作者: maikxz (超级痛痛人)   2012-04-03 10:56:00
发球姬我个人是觉得是长度问题 17M 倒还好
作者: maxspeed150 (听说茉夏分手了)   2012-04-03 11:35:00
所以发球机的约才有个很特殊的条款啊
作者: eon4 (崩星咆哮砲)   2012-04-03 11:39:00
要用长约绑球员一定要冒点风险啊 况且Matt这几年贡献约25 WAR也不过拿16M而已 (by B-R)
作者: abc12812   2012-04-03 11:47:00
发球基离队前两年都有肘伤困扰,和Cain不能比吧
作者: jimmihg (TheKing)   2012-04-03 12:01:00
Cain近年无伤病疑虑,又有近ACE的成绩,拿这约不过份吧?
作者: ajdjg   2012-04-03 13:00:00
推发球机…哈哈
作者: yeng1217 (σ`∀′) ゚∀゚)σ)   2012-04-03 13:12:00
这成绩在NYY每年至少20w = =
作者: PlayStation3 (超级喜欢于小文)   2012-04-03 13:19:00
所以签约本来就是不一样状况阿?有问题嘛..
作者: jardon (综合水果汁武士)   2012-04-03 13:19:00
我没记错1WAR=4M吧 只有去年的5.2WAR(FG)达成 无论如何
作者: jardon (综合水果汁武士)   2012-04-03 13:20:00
他都够稳定 至于是不是overpay 恩... 反正付钱的是老人
作者: ultratimes   2012-04-03 14:07:00
去费城人,可能连3号都未必有XD
作者: jimmihg (TheKing)   2012-04-03 14:12:00
没有多少投手去费城人进的了前三号的XD
作者: KevinLiou   2012-04-03 16:10:00
Hamles的确比Cain还值钱一点点 .....
作者: azlbf (上邪!我欲與君相知)   2012-04-03 17:19:00
反正不会比Zito更糟了
作者: rayven (掷筊才是真正云端运算)   2012-04-04 20:33:00
费城人前三号先发需满足以下任一条件:1、赛扬 2、长得够帅

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