http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-miami-marlins/
(接续)
Is it possible that the Fins will make the playoffs?
马林鱼有可能进季后赛吗？
Possible: yes; probable: no. The New York Mets of 1968, for example, won 73
games and finished near the bottom of the National League. The next year, the
Miracle Mets won 100 games and the World Series title. The Florida Marlins of
2011 sat in the cellar of the NL East with 72 wins. Perhaps there will be an
eerie comparison at hand, or perhaps the Marlins will find that their grandiose
free agency binge was ill conceived.
可能会也可能不会。
举个例来说，1968 年纽约大都会队只有国联最差的 73 胜，
隔年就奇蹟似的赢得 100 胜并且拿下世界大赛冠军；
佛罗里达马林鱼去年的72胜也是国联东区垫底，
但他们可能就是下一个纽约大都会，
也可能他们后来会发现签下那堆 FA 都只是脑充血时的杰作。
Ramirez should vastly improve on his 1.3 WAR showing (he averaged 5.96 WAR over
the past five seasons). Perhaps Josh Johnson can stay on the field for a longer
time, and provide a boost from his 1.7 WAR total in 2011 (he averaged 5.95 in
the previous two seasons). Carlos Zambrano could calm in a new situation, and
he could be an extremely valuable asset if he regains control over his
attitude. Morrison may have room to improve on his 1.0 WAR campaign last year.
小亨利得要从去年的泥淖中快速奋起（过去五季平均 WAR 5.96，去年只有 1.3）；
Josh Johnson 能多出赛几场（过去两季平均 WAR 5.95，去年 1.7）；
Carlos Zambrano 在新环境可以好好冷静并控制好自己的态度的话，他将很有价值；
Logan Morrison 有空间可以让去年的 1.0 WAR 再更上层楼。
So essentially, with rebounds, health and free-agent success, the Marlins could
see incredible improvements. Factor in arbitrary—perhaps meaningless— boosts
from what, in theory, would be unfamiliar hometown support, and a new manager,
and perhaps—just perhaps—the Marlins could see a historic turnaround.
综合那些止跌回升的、健康的、成功的FA等等因素，马林鱼会有长足的进步，
还有一些诡变的因素啦... 虽然不一定有影响到。
新的总教练、到了迈阿密后他们可以得到前所未有的在地支持......
理论上他们有可能... 只是有可能... 马林鱼可以重演历史。
I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
但我还是不会下他们就是了。
Is ownership a legitimate concern?
老板是个值得担心的问题吗？
Remember this? When Logan Morrison was demoted for attitude issues (in the same
clubhouse that held the perpetual headache of Hanley Ramirez for a number of
years prior). President Larry Beinfest, at the time, was quoted as saying, “We
thought it was in the best interests of Logan to go down and concentrate on
baseball and all aspects of being a major leaguer, and work his way back.”
Some of the concerns about Morrison included his Twitter account and his
skipping on a meet-and-greet, and though the Marlins were in the midst of a
lost season, I’d be hard pressed to find a legitimate argument for mental
development time (also known as: demotion) over player development time.
还记得去年 LoMo 因为态度的问题被下放这件事吗？
（前几年小亨利的问题也不断困扰著这支球队）
总裁 Larry Beinfest 说：“现在下放对让他而言是最好的。”
“他应该要把专注力拉回球场上，学着怎么样当一个大联盟球员”
这大概跟他的推特帐号还有爱放炮有关，
但我实在很难找到一个合理的原因来告诉自己，对一个处于失败球季的马林鱼而言，
球员的心理发展（大概就是所谓“下放”）比球技发展还要重要。
That said, I’d feel comfortable counting the Morrison demotion as a one-time
mistake. Sure, the Marlins are an outspoken bunch—Hanley about his managers,
Morrison about everything, and well, Ozzie about everything—but owner Jeffery
Loria did dole out the dollars to try to build a winning team in a brand-new
stadium. I don’t agree with the Morrison demotion, but I have little doubt
that Loria is invested fully in winning, because he literally is at this
juncture.
我觉得放错一次是也还好啦。
老板 Loria 洒了一堆钱要在新球场内打造一支常胜军，
想想看，
队上现在有堆嘴砲的人－－爱战教头们的小亨利、对每件事都有意见的 LoMo 和 Ozzie..
我觉得他们把 LoMo 下放是一个错误的决定，
而且我也不太相信说，Loria 会愿意在这个节骨眼去全力投资。
Can the Marlins make a run without a healthy campaign from Josh Johnson?
如果没有 Josh Johnson，马林鱼还有搞头吗？
As of Opening Day, a healthy Josh Johnson would be the ace of the following
rotation, with a full season being defined as one with more than 180 innings:
健康的 Josh Johnson 会是队上的王牌、开幕战先发。
如果我们把完整球季定义为出赛 180 局以上：
Josh Johnson (average of 5.95 WAR over past two full seasons)
Anibal Sanchez (average of 4.10 WAR over past two full seasons)
Mark Buehrle (average of 3.55 WAR over past two full seasons)
Ricky Nolasco (average of 3.00 WAR over past two full seasons)
Carlos Zambrano (average of 2.85 WAR over past two full seasons)
For comparison’s sake, all five members of the Marlins starting rotation
meeting their two-season averages would yield a WAR of 19.45. Only one team’s
top five beat that mark in 2011, and that rotation belongs to the Phillies.
为了方便比较，5 个轮值的球员都用完整两季的成绩为基准来平均，
把他们总合起来，平均一季共可以贡献出 19.45 的 WAR，
去年只有一支球队的轮值超过这个数字：费城费城人。
Last year, the top five starting pitchers ranked by WAR for the Marlins, were:
去年马林鱼先发轮值 WAR 的排名：
Anibal Sanchez 3.8
Ricky Nolasco 3.5
Javier Vazquez 3.2
Josh Johnson 1.7
Chris Volstad 1.3
The newfound depth on the Florida roster means that Wade LeBlanc is the
replacement starting pitcher, rather than Brad Hand or Clay Hensley, who ate
100-plus innings and 21 starts with a -0.6 WAR total. LeBlanc, though highly
flawed, put up a positive WAR, that, though meager, stands tall compared to the
Handsley beast: 0.5 wins above replacement in 80 innings.
新成员 Wade LeBlanc 是个平均水平左右的SP，比 Brad Hand + Clay Hensley 略优。
虽然他也有一些明显的问题，不过还能在 80 局中贡献出正的 WAR。
The Marlins have some semblance of depth at this point, and though the
questions exist in further bunches: Does Zambrano tear apart the clubhouse,
literally and/or figuratively? Does Guillen clash with the big personalities
and perceived laziness of star Hanley Ramirez? Does Stanton stay healthy? Does
Bell crash and burn outside of PETCO? Does Johnson overcome his shoulder woes?
马林鱼的球员深度目前看起来不错，但他们还有很多问题：
大Z会来掀屋顶吗？
Ozzie Guillen 会和那些性格派干上吗？会体验到 Hanley 怠惰的威力吗？
Stanton 会健康吗？
Bell 离开 PETCO Park之后会大爆炸吗？
Josh Johnson 能克服肩膀问题吗？
The Marlins have a clue at this point, and didn’t at a similar point just one
year ago.
他们现在还是有很多问题，但也和一年前的样子迥然不同了。
A quick turnaround—nay, historic one—might be in order. Might.
或许他们现在很适合再马上拿一次冠军，或许啦......