Five questions: Atlanta Braves
by John Beamer
March 05, 2012
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-atlanta-braves7/
After going 163 games in 2010 and suffering a Mets-esque fall in 2011 (although
the fact that the Braves weren’t leading the division somehow makes it seem
less painful) 2012 is a year full of expectation for Braves fans. However, one
thing is for sure: the NL East suddenly has become a lot more competitive with
the free-spending Marlins throwing their wallet at every free agent that moves
and the Nationals potentially about to move Bryce Harper into their lineup.
Onward with our five questions then.
去年死得跟之前的大都会一样惨 ( 好吧，至少不是从分区龙头跌下来 ) 的勇士，
相信大家今年对他们的期望会很高。不过大家也看到同区的马林鱼，挖到石油似的补强
加上国民队有可能把 Bryce Harper 推上场，这使得国联东区好玩多了。
Will Jason Heyward recover?
- Jason Heyward 会找回自己吗?
Stats never lie, and J-Hey’s 2011 had all the hallmarks of a classic sophomore
slump. After a respectable .376 wOBA in 2010, he fell to a mark of .314 in
2011. The issue was both contact and power as he struggled with a dud shoulder
for much of the year. As the slump set in, he tried to force contact at the
plate and ended up striking out too often. His Achilles' heel was pitches
outside the zone, where he had a 28.3 percent swing rate compared to 23.3
percent in 2010.
数据会说话，去年很明显的 Heyward 也遇到了二年级生撞墙期。wOBA 从 .376掉到.314
。肩膀的问题让他安打跟长打都出不来，而当他太想要打到球时，三振率更是节节高升。
尤其是对好球带以外的挥击率，从 23.3 跳到 28.3。
Wind the clock back a couple of years and Heyward had superstar potential. In
fact, going into 2010 he was Baseball America’s top prospect. That year, het
tial in the bigs to suggest he has what it takes to be a
regular All-Star.
时光倒转一下，那些年我们一起觉得他有明星球员的潜力，连 BA 都指名他为2010第一新
秀。当年他也展示出他是真货。
The good news is he's still very young. Heyward turned 22 in August, and that
makes him younger that many of the top hitting prospects expected to get
playing time this year like Brett Jackson and Devin Mesoraco. The other factor
that hurt J-Hey last year was a precipitous drop in BABIP from .335 to .260,
and that should rebound somewhat. Factor in an xBABIP of .315, and 2011
suddenly is a .365 wOBA-type season.
好消息是他还年轻，他去年八月才刚22岁，比今年其他队的新秀还年轻，而且去年的
BABIP 从.335掉到.260，这个势必会反弹。其实如果算进 xBABIP 的话 (.315)，去年
其实没有那么糟，wOBA其实可以达到.365的。
As a result, his projections going into 2012 are good. Oliver pegs him at
.274/.367/.475 with 20 homers. My view is that line feels a little
conservative. Given the Braves’ lack of power in general, Heyward needs to
deliver if the Braves are going to play deep into October.
Heyward今年应该会回升，我们的Oliver猜他.274/.367/.475，20HR，我都觉得稍嫌保守。
看勇士队那"精美"的砲火，勇士十月能不能打球，要看Heyward的表现了。
Can the 2012 bullpen replicate the success of last year?
- 牛棚能否重现去年的雄风呢?
In 2011, the Braves bullpen was lights out—well, at least until the last
couple of weeks of the season. Even with that little slip, the Eric
O'Flaherty-Jonny Venters-Craig Kimbrel combination was among the best shutdown
end-game in the bigs. Can the young trio maintain its form into 2012?
11' 牛棚实在是很威 ( 好吧，去掉最后两星期的话 ) 即使算进去的话，
O'Flaherty-Venters-Kimbrel 堪称去年最强大的关门组合。他们能继续下去吗?
One issue that potentially plagued Kimbrel & Co. was overuse. Kimbrel hurled 77
innings while Venters notched up 88—that’s a lot for two hard-throwing young
relievers. The projections for 2012 are strong. Venters is expected to have a
FIP in the high twos, while the expectation is that Kimbrel will be
substantially better. On paper, that makes for a lights-out bullpen again in
2013.
最有可能的原因，应该是天天OVK的关系。去年Kimbrel丢了77局，Venters 88局，对两个
年轻火球少年来说，可能有点太多。不过2012的预测还是不错，Venters 的 FIP大概会稍
微低于3，Kimbrel 应该会表现更好，然后2013应该也不赖。
Perhaps the biggest question is mental. Time and again we’ve seen young
relievers have a couple of bad high-leverage outings that then go on to affect
the rest of their careers. Joey Devine anyone? Of course, comparing Devine to
Kimbrel may be akin to comparing Kraft cheese slices with a fine French Brie.
最大的问题还是在心理因素，我们也很常看到被打爆一两场就从此坏掉的，举例说明：
Joey Devine ( ... 躺着也中枪 ) 当然，拿Devine 跟 Kimbrel 比就像是拿XX比鸡腿
Kimbrel has a powerful fastball/slider combination and over 97 career innings,
he has struck out 167 batters. The biggest change is his command as he has
slashed his walks-per-nine innings from 5.7 in Triple-A to 3.7 last year in the
majors. The key to a successful 2012 is ensuring his command stays strong.
Kimbrel有着强大的速球跟滑球，生涯累积97局的他已经三振掉167人了，而且保送率也
从小联盟的5.7降到3.7。2012要赢? Kimbrel 控球是关键。
Can Tommy Hanson remain healthy?
- Tommy Hanson 能健康吗?
One reason the Braves fell away in 2011 is because Hanson spent quite a bit of
time on the DL hampered by a sore shoulder. The reports for 2012 so far are
positive, but reality won’t hit until Hanson has thrown in anger, which won’t
be before Opening Day. Also, it is one thing to be healthy at the start of the
season, but the big question is durability. A baseball season is 162 games, so
if the Braves are to contend, Hanson will need to pitch deep into September.
去年斧头帮失利，很大原因是因为 Hanson 因为肩伤在DL待太久。目前看来是很乐观，
不过这得看开季之后，有压力的情况下投球，才能确定真实情况如何。
当然开季健康跟耐操是两码子事，棒球有162场比赛，所以Hanson必须能在九月还能投。
Pitcher health is always difficult to predict, but Hanson has had a history of
(minor) ailments. In 2010, he struggled with back pain as a result of a
deviated facet joint. The Braves' belief is that the back injury contributed to
the shoulder problem as he adjusted his mechanics slightly. In the offseason,
Hanson has worked on a comprehensive strengthening program that he hopes will
fix both issues.
投手的健康一直都是个未知数，不过Hanson一直都有小问题，像是2010的背痛之类的，
勇士球团认为他的背痛使他调整姿势，然后引发后来的肩伤。
Hanson 希望能藉著新的重量训练，能够将两个问题一起搞定。
However, if history is a guide, the odds are that Hanson won’t be able to stay
healthy all 2012. However, despite not adding anyone this offseason, the one
advantage the Tomahawks have in 2012 over 2011 is a much deeper pitcher bench
as some of the elite pitchers in the minor leagues become big-league ready.
Braves uber-prospects like Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado
are all waiting in the wings if any of the starters end up on the DL.
如果历史重演，Hanson 没办法健康出赛的话，其实勇士自家的投手群很深，尤其是很多
小联盟练好，准备上大联盟的高级新秀，Teharen、Vizcaino、Delgado 之类的，
都等著抢下一席先发。
Can Chipper Jones still be productive?
- Chipper Jones 还能打吗?
At 39 years old, Chipper is certainly in the twilight of his career. Indeed,
this is likely his penultimate season in the majors as his contract is up at
the end of 2013. A few days ago, a rather unflattering photo of Chipper doing
his best Prince Fielder impression was flying around the Internet, casting
doubt on his ability to keep it together. Jones responded that he’s in the
better shape than he was this time last year, having dropped 10 pounds—now
weighing a svelte 225.
39岁高龄(?)，Chipper Jones 应该也差不多了，合约明年也该到期了。请看以下图片，
( http://on.fb.me/zV9Peb ) 到底是 Chipper 在试着模仿小王子，还是身体跟不上了?
但是本人却说他现在比去年的今天，感觉更良好。
The expectation is that Jones will be fortunate to play in 120 games this year;
over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 110 games and about 450 plate
appearances. Over the same time period, he has averaged a .350 wOBA, implying
there is little doubt he’ll be productive. However, it is worrying that he is
one the better hitters in the lineup, since he's not expected to be there
full-time.
普遍期望他今年能打120场就谢天谢地了，前两年平均也才110场，大约450次打击机会。
能打的时候他倒是缴出了0.350wOBA，不差的成绩，不过不能正常上场这点很令人担心，
因为他是队上少数能打的....
Given Chipper’s career history, it is little surprise that the projection
systems converge around a consistent forecast, with the expectation is that he’
ll continue to deliver a .350 wOBA in 2012 and around 14 home runs. Arguably,
the bigger issue is health.
看一下Chipper的历史，其实他的成绩一直都维持在这个等级，所以最大问题还是健康。
Since 2005, Jones has only really had one injury-free season (in 2009 when he
racked up close to 600 plate appearances). In a way, he’s been fortunate that
he has only suffered niggles, but those add up and wear down the body. Chipper’
s projection doesn’t feel to have much upside, but it could have a lot of
downside. Let’s hope the Braves don’t need to rely on his bat too much.
从05年到现在，其实只有一年(09')没有受伤过，这中间虽然很庆幸没有大修，不过小伤
也慢慢的在影响Chipper的身体，使他没什么进步空间，却有很大的退步空间。
希望今年斧头帮不要太依赖他才好。
What will be the final pecking order in the NL East?
- 所以最后的排名会如何?
As mentioned at the top of the article, the NL East will be among the toughest
divisions in baseball this year. The Phillies still have a star-studded
rotation and will contend, the Marlins have upgraded significantly, and the
Nationals have Stephen Strasburg back full time and Bryce Harper potentially
about to enter the fray.
像刚刚说的，国联东区今年会很有趣，费城人还是星光闪闪，马大鱼集力补强，国民
则是有了两大状元 Strasburg 跟 Harper 加持 ( 梅子表示:.... )
A quick look at Vegaswatch gives us some over/unders. Vegas has the Phillies at
96 wins (incidentally, the best in baseball), the Braves at 86, the Marlins at
83, the Nationals on the line at 81 and the Mets at 75. Vegas also predicts the
first NL Wild Card winner will log 87 wins, so Atlanta is a genuine contender,
especially with a second Wild Card coming to fruition this year.
拉斯维加斯预测出费城(96)，勇士(86)，马林鱼(83)，国民(81)，大都会(75)的顺序，
费城的96胜是大联盟最佳。赌盘也预测国联外卡需要87胜，所以勇士还是很有机会，尤其
今年有两张外卡门票。
We need to be careful with win projections, and particularly Vegas lines, which
have a tendency to reflect betting patterns. The standard deviation of team
wins is around eight, which is large enough to make drawing conclusions a fool’
s game. That issue aside, the Braves are a young and improving team, and they
should have learned a lot from last year’s meltdown.
当然这些预测看看就好，尤其是这种攸关赌盘的预测。误差值通常高达八场，所以现在
要猜谁赢实在很难说。不过勇士是个年轻有为的球队，应该会从去年的悲剧学到教训。
Dropping Derek Lowe while moving a few of the young arms into the rotation will
improve the pitching, and there is no reason to expect the pen will be anything
other than the "blue screen of death" for opponents. The big question is
batting and, frankly, I’m not sure it can be much worse than last year. The
Phillies likely will remain out of reach, but I’d bet my second house that the
Braves make October ball.
把 Derek Lowe 弄掉，启用一些年轻投手，先发轮值会进步很多。
牛棚大概跟去年一样，对手遇到他们就像遇到Windows蓝底白字的当机画面一样，GG。
最大的问题是打击，不过应该也不会比去年糟糕。
追上费城就不用想了，不过我用我未来的第二栋房子打赌，勇士十月应该有球打。