http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-miami-marlins/
by Nick Fleder
March 06, 2012
How will the free agent digs fare in the coming years?
挖来的FA在未来的几年会表现如何？
Heath Bell signed a three-year, $27 million deal with a fourth year vesting
option
Heath Bell： 27M/ 3Y，成绩达标的话将自动执行 2015 年的 9M 选择权
Bell is projected by THT’s Oliver forecast to be a 1.4 WAR player, with fine
ratio stats of 3.38 and 1.23 in ERA and WHIP, respectively. Bell’s a risky
property, however, as he saw his K/9 rate go down considerably in 2011 (more
than a 2.0 K/9 drop from career to 2011) and his WAR plummeted as a result. He
was worth $2.3 million last year per Fangraphs, and has been worth upwards of
$9.0 million only twice in his career.
硬球时报的 Oliver 预测 Heath Bell 会有 1.4 的 WAR，ERA 3.38，WHIP 1.23
这是个冒险的投资，毕竟他在 2011 年的 K9 比生涯平均低 2 个，WAR 也因此直线下滑
Fangraphs 显示他去年价值是 2.3M，而他生涯仅有2季的价值超过 9M
Mark Buehrle signed a four-year, $58 million deal
Mark Buehrle： 58M / 4Y
Oliver doesn’t love Buehrle, projecting him to put up 2.8 WAR and an ERA above
four, likely due to the 20-hit bump projected to occur in 2012. Buehrle is a
model of consistency, though, putting up between 3.4 and 4.6 WAR in the last
five years, including two years of 3.4 and two years of 3.7. Those four seasons
have been worth between $15 and $15.5 million, so Buehrle will have to fare
similarly for his contract to be a boon. Unfortunately, Oliver projects him to
slip below 2.0 WAR in his final Miami year.
Oliver 不甲意 Buehrle，只给他 2.8 的 WAR 和高于 4 的 ERA
大概是因为他也预估 Buehrle 在 2012 年会被多打 20 支安打
Buehrle 是稳定教科书，近 5 年的 WAR 都在 3.4 ~ 4.6 之间游走，2度 3.4、2度 3.7
这 4 个球季他的价值大概是 15 ~ 15.5M，所以他应该可以让这成为一个好约
可惜 Oliver 预估他在迈阿密的最后一年 WAR 会低于 2
Jose Reyes signed a six-year, $102 million deal
Jose Reyes： 102M / 6Y
Reyes’ health is a glaring, larger-than-life question mark, and he’s had
mixed results because of nagging injuries and slow recoveries. See his WAR for
the last four years, the results of which are comparable to dartboard throws:
5.8, 0.8, 3.1, and 6.0. Enigmatic would be the word if he weren’t so darned
talented. But the Marlins expected to pay for production rather than raw
talent, and Oliver isn’t cheery about the prospects of the deal long term. The
elephant in the room, as noted, is that the guy’s been on the field for 98
games, on average, over the last three years. Oliver projects 500-plus at-bats
throughout the life of the contract—how could the system account for injury,
after all—but a range of 3.2 WAR-2.3 WAR. I wouldn’t expect so much
consistency, but rather the sporadic Reyes ways we’ve come to know.
Jose Reyes 的健康比什么都还重要，他曾被一些伤和漫长的复健所困扰
5.8、0.8、3.1、6.0，近四年他的 WAR 就像在玩射飞镖一样
除非他真有那该死的天份，不然这就只能用“雾里看花”来形容了
但马林鱼希望买到的是实际产出，而非纯天分
Oliver 也不看好这个长约，就像房里的大象一样，他近 3 年平均只出赛 98 场
Oliver 预估他在这份合约能平均有 500+ 的 AB、3.2 ~ 2.3的 WAR
我不觉得他能这么稳定，反而比较有机会像之前那样“偶尔来 Reyes 一下”
What are the ideal lineup configurations?
先发打线怎么排？
The ideal lineup might look differently than the projected one. Assuming Reyes
to hit first, Emilio Bonifacio to hit behind him, and the three-four-five punch
of Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison to drive in the speedsters,
you’d have a top five that mixes speed, power and superior on-base skills, or
an assortment of those traits. RotoChamp does think that the lineup will look
as such in the top half, followed by Gaby Sanchez, John Buck, Omar Infante and
the pitcher, but perhaps there’s a better makeup.
理想的先发打线不会和预测的一样。
如果让 Reyes 开路，Bonifacio 紧随，Hanley、Stanton、LoMo 负责三四五棒
就可以得到一个兼具速度、力量、上垒的五连星
RotoChamp 预测，这个后有 Gaby Sanchez、John Buck、Infante、投手的打线
将会有前段的成绩
不过他们恐怕有更好的组合方式
RHP LHP
1 Ramirez Ramirez
2 Coghlan Reyes
3 Sanchez Morrison
4 Stanton Stanton
5 Morrison Sanchez
6 Reyes Bonifacio
7 Infante Buck
8 Buck Infante
This is on the basis of lineup optimization findings by Tom Tango, eloquently
stated by “PGP” on a 2011 DRaysBay blog post:
这是根据 Tom Tango 所研究出的最佳化打线而来
“In a nutshell, Tango's analysis suggests that the first two slots should go
to good OBP hitters (who are also good quality overall), the fourth and fifth
are the next most important and should go to good power hitters, and the 3-hole
should go to a home-run hitter who might not necessarily have the best OBP.
From then on, descending order of hitter quality is a good idea. The general
order of hitter quality according to this is something like 1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 6,
7, 8, 9 although obviously there is differing emphasis at different lineup
spots.”
简单讲，Tango 的研究建议前两棒最好是高上垒率的球员（甚至整体评价都好的）
四五两棒最重要，所以应该摆上长打者；
三番是全垒打制造机，但不一定需要最好的上垒率
按照球员的能力从前面往下排棒次是个不错的主意
依据 Tango 的研究，最理想的顺序大概是长这样：1, 2, 4, 5, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9
即使每一个棒次强调的特性都不太一样
Essentially, this lineup revitalization would take away every-day duties from
Bonifacio, who is incredibly inept against righties when compared to Chris
Coghlan, who gets on base at a 36 percent clip against right-handed pitchers in
his career (roughly 4 percent more than Bonifacio does). Coghlan’s wRC+
against RHP is 39 points higher than Bonifacio’s, and his career OPS against
righties is over 150 points higher. Sure, this rides heavily on Coghlan’s
health, ability, and success in gaining the trust of new manager Ozzie Gullen.
And furthermore, Bonifacio plays a better center field than Coghlan; but a
time-share could be a worthy exploration, as the former’s .360 OBP in 2011 was
largely smoke and mirrors.
照理说，他们不应该让 Bonifacio 可以天天先发的，他打右投手的能力差 Coghlan 太多了
Coghlan 打右投的上垒率比 Bonifacio 还要高 4%
wRC+ 高39
OPS 高 0.150
当然，这都要端看 Coghlan 是否健康、表现如何、得不得 Ozzie 疼
目前 Bonifacio 在中外野的表现比较好
但他们的上场时间会怎么分配值得观察，毕竟他2011年的 .360 上垒率看起来太假了
The lineup changes would also drop Jose Reyes from the leadoff spot…
permanently. “What?” you scream. I know, I know. Let me explain myself.
Reyes, despite an on-base percentage of .384, was playing far above his talent
level. His career on-base percentage is a relatively average .341, and his walk
rate is low at 6.9 percent. Sure, he makes contact, and sure, he beats out a
lot of infield hits and bunts, but perhaps his speed should be used elsewhere
while the true leadoff hitter regains his rightful throne.
不管怎么排，Jose Reyes 都不会被放在第一棒......
“虾毁！？”我知道你一定会这样大叫，现在就来解释给你听吧
去年的上垒率高达 .384，远高于他的天分水平，生涯平均是.341
而且他的保送率低到只有 6.9%
没错，他 contact 很好并能打出很多内野安打
但正牌的一棒在重回他的宝座之后，Reyes 的脚程应该可以用在其他地方
Hanley Ramirez has a career .380 OBP, though you may find that easy to forget
after a .333 showing during last year’s disaster. Ramirez has a career triple
slash in the leadoff spot of .309/.385/.536, and his slugging percentage is
particularly noteworthy as it’s .55 points higher in the leadoff spot than in
the three-hole, his other home. Unless you believe Reyes was at his true,
sustainable talent level last year (not to be confused with his peak), and that
Hanley is truly a different player today than he was in the past, the move
makes sense when you consider Reyes’ .294/.344/.447 triple-slash in the
leadoff spot.
Hanley Ramirez 生涯的上垒率是 .380，看到这你很容易就会忘记去年的灾难
他在打第一棒的三围是惊人的 .309/.385/.536
特别值得一提的是，这个长打率还比他打三棒的时候还要高 .055
除非你相信去年 Reyes 的表现才是他该有的 level （而非生涯年）
同时你也相信 Hanley 真的完全变成另一个球员
这样子的话，把生涯 .294/.344/.447 的Reyes 推到第一棒或许是个不错的点子
（待续）