版上搜寻 Verducci 有详细解释
Pitcher, Team 2011 Age IP Increase
Derek Holland, Tex 24 222 +71 1/3*
Dylan Axelrod, CWS 25 169 1/3 +60
Jaime Garcia, St.L 24 220 1/3 +57
Liam Hendriks, Minn. 22 162 2/3 +54
Eric Surkamp, SF 23 175 +44*
Chris Schwinden, NYM 24 169 2/3 +43*
Yovani Gallardo, Mil. 25 226.1 +41 1/3*
Nathan Eovaldi, LAD 21 137 2/3 +39 1/3
Daniel Hudson, Ariz. 24 227 1/3 +38 2/3
Jeremy Hellickson, TB 24 193 +37 1/3
Mike Leake, Cin. 23 175 +36 2/3
Matt Harrison, Tex 25 204 +36 1/3*
Michael Pineda, Sea 22 171 +31 2/3
Zach Stewart, CWS 24 168 +31 2/3
* 单季最多局数出现在 2010 之前
Tom Verducci 使用这种观察方法检视过去六年
危险名单总共 55 人，其中 46 人 (换句话说是 84%)
在下一球季受伤或是 ERA 肿胀
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/tom_verducci/
01/18/year.after.effect/index.html
http://tinyurl.com/7pe8ooe
严格来说这没什么理论基础，当参考就好