Keith Law 版50大自由球员：
1 Prince Fielder
2 Albert Pujols
3 Yu Darvish 达比修有
4 Jose Reyes
5 Jimmy Rollins
6 Mark Buehrle
7 Aramis Ramirez
8 C.J. Wilson
9 Carlos Beltran
10 David Ortiz
11 Edwin Jackson
12 Javier Vazquez
13 Hiroki Kuroda 黒黑田博树
14 Carlos Pena
15 Michael Cuddyer
16 Ryan Madson
17 Kelly Johnson
18 Jonathan Papelbon
19 Wei-Ying Chen 陈伟殷
20 Josh Willingham
21 David DeJesus
22 Roy Oswalt
23 Erik Bedard
24 Paul Maholm
25 Grady Sizemore
26 Coco Crisp
27 Johnny Damon
28 Francisco Rodriguez
29 Ryan Doumit
30 Aaron Hill
31 Ronny Cedeno
32 Ramon Hernandez
33 Bartolo Colon
34 Bruce Chen 陈用彩
35 Jeff Francis
36 Freddy Garcia
37 Andruw Jones
38 Rafael Furcal
39 Cody Ross
40 Heath Bell
41 Jason Kubel
42 Joe Nathan
43 Jim Thome
44 Francisco Cordero
45 Kyuji Fujikawa 藤川球儿
46 Frank Francisco
47 J.D. Drew
48 Hisashi Iwakuma 岩隈久志
49 Matt Murton
50 Chien-Ming Wang 王建民
3 Yu Darvish 达比修有
Darvish has been the object of MLB teams' affection dating back to the
2009 World Baseball Classic, for his combination of plus stuff, incredible
performances and size. On that year's Japanese WBC roster, he was a good 4
inches taller than all but one of the other pitchers, so he's built more
like the American scouting ideal. Darvish, who is half-Japanese and half-
Iranian, needs to come to MLB if he wants to be challenged further after
he punched out 276 in 232 innings in Japan this season while walking just
30 unintentionally.
Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph
fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard
shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard
slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow
curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use
and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to
the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more
effective because he's junked his worst offerings.
He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly
late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the
delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been
worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking
the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who
haven't lived up to their advance billings.
13 Hiroki Kuroda 黑田博树 (不重要，贴个意思)
Kuroda signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers last year before the closed
period ended, meaning he didn't wait to negotiate with other clubs, and
it's possible Kuroda would pitch only for the Dodgers or head back to
Japan to pitch in the NPB. He doesn't have a true out pitch but throws a
ton of strikes and, until 2011, was a moderate ground ball pitcher who
kept the ball in the park. This year, however, he had the lowest ground
ball rate and highest line-drive rate of his career (per FanGraphs), as
his sinker didn't have its usual sink. He has a soft splitter he uses
against left-handed hitters and a mid-80s downward-breaking slider against
righties, and hasn't lost any significant velocity. But when a soon-to-be-
37-year-old pitcher suddenly sees his line-drive rate jump by 15 percent
to 20 percent over his career average, that's a big red flag.
19 Wei-Ying Chen 陈伟殷 (好像贴过)
Chen was born in Taiwan but has pitched in Japan's NPB for several years.
He's had good results, but a decline in his stuff this year probably will
limit his market.
He had been sitting low 90s and touching 95 in past years but was more 88-
92 early in 2011, and his slider didn't have its usual bite. By the end of
the year, he was back up to 92-94 and the slider was sharper, so MLB
teams' interest might depend on when in the year they saw him. He has a
decent split-change that should make him more than just a lefty
specialist, although it's not an out pitch for him. Chen still has plus
control, with 31 walks in 164 2/3 innings this year for Chunichi, but
after striking out more than 21 percent of the hitters he faced in his
first three full seasons in NPB, his strikeout rate dropped to 14 percent
this year. He is only 25 and offers more upside than the typical NPB
refugee, both due to age and the chance for the slider to become a
consistently plus pitch.
45 Kyuji Fujikawa 藤川球儿
Fujikawa isn't a free agent but there's a good chance he'll be posted, as
he has one year left before true free agency. The timing would be good, as
Fujikawa is coming off a year in which he struck out 80 of the 179 batters
he faced. Fujikawa is up to 94 mph with his fastball and will sit around
92, but the pitch is pin-straight and he goes to his splitter often to
keep changing eye levels. The splitter is an out pitch for him, and he
commands it well; he'll also show a junk curveball that he probably should
shelve if he comes over. He might be homer-prone with the straight
fastball, but the splitter is a potential difference-maker.
48 Hisashi Iwakuma 岩隈久志
Iwakuma chose not to sign with Oakland last winter after the A's agreed to
a posting fee, but he had a very disappointing 2011 and probably won't
fare any better as a true free agent this fall. A shoulder injury had his
velocity down to 84-86 mph, although he was back up to 87-90 by the end of
the season with the hard splitter and plus slider he's shown in the past.
If his medicals check out and his fastball is at least fringe average, he
could be someone's fifth starter because he throws so many strikes and
tends to keep the ball down.
50 Chien-Ming Wang 王建民
Wang didn't look sharp in his first few outings back from all his
injuries, but by the end of the year, he looked good enough to profile as
a back-end starter. His sinker will be more 88-90 mph than its old 90-93,
but the sink is still good enough to keep the ball on the ground, and both
his splitter and slider were getting sharper as the season ended. I'd be
very wary of any pitcher with his history of shoulder injuries, but a full
season of the version of Wang we saw the final weeks of September would be
worth two wins above replacement.