Kevin Goldstein 向10位看过达比修的球探和管理阶层所做的调查
问题是：
"Based on talent alone, would you take Darvish ahead of this pitcher?"
比较对象有
Ricky Nolasco, Ian Kennedy, Matt Garza, Zack Greinke 和 Justin Verlander
(可惜没有 C.J. Wilson)
Ricky Nolasco, Miami Marlins
Scouting report: A frustrating talent. The stuff is there, the command is
there, the peripherals often point to a breakout, but it just never
happens.
While those polled were universal in favoring Darvish over a prototypical
No. 4 starter with occasional glimpses of being a No. 3, some admitted
that it was a question that was at least worth some thought. "It's
actually close," said an American League scout. "I mean, look at Nolasco's
numbers. Are we all really so sure that Darvish can do that?"
The unknown also played a significant role in the decision-making process
for many. "I just think the change of scenery is so huge," explained a
National League international scout. "It's a gamble. If I was Texas, I
would have re-signed C.J. Wilson over Darvish. Everyone is different, and
it's hard to know how players will react to being in a new environment."
The vote: Darvish, 10-0
Ian Kennedy, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scouting report: More a finesse pitcher than a pure stuff guy, but coming
off a year in which he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young
voting.
"These guys are known quantities, and that shouldn't be discounted," said
one NL exec. "Darvish could be a one, and he could be a four, and we won't
know until he gets here." An AL scout agreed: "On a stuff level, Darvish
is way better. But you need a pretty big sack to say he's going to
outperform Kennedy." (For those who've forgotten, Kennedy posted a 2.88
ERA in 222 innings in 2011.)
Another AL scouting official insisted that it's what Darvish can do with
the stuff that gives him the edge. "A lot of pitchers can get strikeouts
outside of the zone," he explained. "When you can challenge hitters inside
the zone and get swings and misses, that's what makes a front-line
starter, and Darvish can do that."
The vote: Darvish, 7-3
Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
Scouting report: Durable with plus stuff, and more strikeouts than hits
allowed in 2011.
Garza was often the first point of heavy thinking and pauses for those
polled. "I have to go Garza here," said one NL executive. "He's young,
he's American League East-proven [from his time with the Tampa Bay Rays]
and he's got great stuff." In addition, Garza's placement on the spectrum
created some questions, as two among those polled took Darvish over Garza,
yet preferred Kennedy over both. "I think you're going in the wrong
direction," said an AL assistant general manager.
The vote: Darvish, 7-3
Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers
Scouting report: A bit mecurial, but won AL Cy Young Award in 2009 and had
career-high strikeout rate in first year with Brewers in 2011.
As good as Greinke can be at times, his inconsistency and unique
personality has some that were polled waffling on their choice. "Greinke
is tantalizing, but you take that Cy Young Award season away, and he's not
always a star," said one AL scout, with another adding, "After seeing
Greinke down the stretch in the playoffs, I'll take Darvish." An AL
executive saw some similarities off the field as well. "They're both weird
makeup guys," he said. "Lots of ego stuff, lots of style points. That
could be to his advantage or disadvantage over here depending on how you
look at it."
The vote: Tie, 5-5
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Scouting report: Generally seen as best pitcher in baseball. Reigning AL
MVP and Cy Young winner.
While it should be no surprise that Verlander wins in a blowout, for one
NL scout who has seen Darvish in person, it was at least something to
think about. "I know you think I'm crazy, and I know I'm higher on him
than anyone, but I really have to consider it," he said. "There might not
be another pitcher on the planet who can manipulate a baseball like he
does."
Even for those that saw Verlander as a no-brainer, many admitted that the
potential for No. 1 performance was there. "While he's no Verlander,
optimistically, you want to see him as a top-of-the-rotation guy," said an
AL executive. "Realistically, we need to see how the uber-stuff and uber-
athleticism plays out here."
The vote: Verlander, 10-0
For most insiders polled, the choke point for just how good Yu Darvish
would be occurred somewhere between Garza and Greinke, although a majority
still preferred the Japanese import. It's important to note that even the
reservations about Darvish had little to do with his talent, and
everything to do with the adjustments he'll need to make, from working on
shorter rest than he had in Japan, to dealing with far more dangerous
hitters, to a new strike zone. Still, reports from professional
evaluators, and the ultimate price paid tells you that he was the best
pitcher available this winter, and while he was priced beyond many team's
reach, the industry generally believes he will be worth the heavy price
tag.
http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4876775/
your-pick-darvish-vs-5-other-rhps
http://tinyurl.com/7r7suj2