http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/is-robinson-cano-overrated-35970
Stephen Rhoads at RAB scooped me Thursday. My intention had been to write a
post investigating how much money Robinson Cano might be in a position to get
once he hits free agency. Rhoads beat me to the punch, forcing me to change
my focus. Fortunately for me, I came across another idea while researching my
Cano salary post.
Rhoads was elaborating upon a rumor that Scott Boras has approached the
Yankees about renegotiating Cano’s current contract. Stephen concluded that
Robbie may be in a position to get a six year, $100 million deal from the
Yankees. He linked to a Mike Axisa post from the summer that suggested Cano
may be due for a six year, $120 million pay out. Those contract numbers
represent serious bank for Robbie, but Cano is a steal at those prices
because he’s one of the best players in baseball … right? Right?
Robinson is an immensely talented baseball player. He’s tantalized fans and
scouts alike with his natural ability since he burst onto the scene in 2005
to replace an injured (and awful) Tony Womack. He locked up his reputation as
one of the best players in the entire sport in 2010, when he had his best
season to date. He reinforced his reputation as one of the game’s best with
a stellar 2011 season.
An annual salary of $17 to $20 million would make Robinson Cano one of
baseball’s twenty highest paid players. That isn’t such a big deal, given
Cano’s reputation as being one of the game’s twenty best players. The dirty
little secret, however, is that, as good as Robbie is, the operative word in
these last two paragraphs is reputation. Robbie may have a reputation as
being one of the game’s best, but the numbers don’t back that up.
In terms of WAR, wOBA, Home Runs, SLG and OBP — reputation too — 2010 was
far and away Robinson’s best season in baseball. He had an amazing year,
posting 6.5 fWAR, a .389 wOBA, 29 homers, a .534 SLG and a .381 OBP. That
was an amazing season, an All Star season to say the least. It wasn’t,
however, a top ten season in baseball that year.
Cano’s fWAR of 6.5 ranked 11th in the game in 2010 among position players.
That’s amazing, but it isn’t as amazing as the hype surrounding that season
would suggest. His wOBA rates similarly. Cano placed 12th in all of baseball
in 2010, which is truly phenomenal, but to hear people talk about it you’d
think Robbie was one of the top five hitters in the game. He wasn’t. His
.389 2010 wOBA was tied with Ryan Zimmerman‘s mark, and just .001 points
ahead of Shin-Soo Choo. Both of those guys are excellent ball players, but
neither’s 2010 season was as hyped as Cano’s.
2011 tells a similar story. Once again, Robbie had a great season. He posted
5.6 fWAR with a .375 wOBA, 28 homers, a .533 SLG and a .349 OBP. That was an
All Star caliber season, but it wasn’t one of the top seasons in all of
baseball. In 2010 he came close to having one of the top seasons in baseball.
He didn’t come close in 2011. His fWAR ranked 22nd in the entire game while
his wOBA was 27th in all of baseball. He placed just ahead of Aramis Ramirez.
Is anyone talking about giving Aramis $100 million?
This raises three questions. Is Robbie overrated, as my title implies? If so,
why is he overrated? And, regardless, given that he’s critical to the Yankees
’ long-term success and will soon be a free-agent, should he be as highly
paid as Stephen and Mike at RAB suggest? I’ll tackle these in order.
Bluntly put, Robbie is overrated. Don’t get me wrong. Robbie is great. He’s
phenomenal. I never want to see him in another uniform for the rest of his
career. But, just about everyone who follows baseball, professional and
amateur alike, talks about Cano as though he’s been one of the game’s
single best players for the last couple of seasons. That’s simply not true.
He’s been one of the top fifteen to twenty position players in the last two
seasons, but he hasn’t been as good as the hype. Perhaps this is a cruel
application of the definition of overrated, but the facts are when someone is
not as good as we claim, he is overrated.
There are two reasons why Robbie is (just a little) overrated. First, he
plays in New York. He’s succeeding on the world’s biggest stage. That will
make any star burn brighter. Second, Robbie looks so good playing baseball
that we think he’s better than he is. Cano is one of the most graceful,
exciting baseball players I’ve ever seen in a lifetime of watching this
game. When he does something good on the field, its often something
astounding, and he executes with pizazz. Whether its running down a ball in
the gap and making an impossible throw to first across his body or dropping
his bat and briefly admiring a ball that he’s just hit into the
stratosphere, Robbie does a lot of things in baseball that no one else can
do. The problem is that he does many near-impossible things so well that we
forget to notice all the essential things that he does badly, like take
pitches. We overrate Cano because he’s so much fun to watch play baseball
that we naturally think he’s better than he is.
All that said, even if we say Robbie is a top five player when he is not, he
is still a top twenty player who will be a free agent after the 2013 season
at the latest, which would be just his age 30 season. Should the Yankees make
him not just one of the top twenty highest paid position players in the game,
but one of the top twenty highest paid players, period? I vote yes,
resoundingly, slightly overrated or not (and I emphasize slightly, because
Robbie is obviously an elite player).
Since 2009 Robbie has accumulated 16.4 fWAR, while hitting .314/.361/.529,
for a .378 wOBA. That may not make him a top ten position player, but it does
rank 13th in the game during that time. Among second basemen only Ben Zobrist
and Chase Utley have been better during that stretch, and not by much.
Setting defense aside, Robbie’s .378 wOBA during that stretch is 14th in the
game and tops among all second basemen. Having turned 29 this October, Robbie
figures to be one of the game’s elite second basemen for the next five or
six years. He figures to be worth at least $18 million a season to the
Yankees. The team should pay him fairly and lock him up for a few more
seasons if it can. He is, after all, perhaps the game’s best second basemen,
even if he’s not perhaps its best player.

还好 现在NY会被认为是overrated应该是A-Rod

作者说被高估是因为Cano不是联盟最顶尖球员之一，但又同时认

为他是前15~20的野手，还可能是最好的二垒手，不禁让人想问

那被高估的比较点是什么?有很多人或共识Cano是前十的野手吗?

看薪水吧

薪水跟身手的比较吧

Is NY Yankees overrated?

overrate 和overpay不一样吧

Jeter如果不论效益单论场上表现那也是...

CANO 才14M哪里Overrated...

今天风浪小 天气好 KIZAKULA浮标准备好了

Cano要说的话就是防守不够好 加上都不选球 其他都很OK

I Don'T Care. 反正他的实绩.态度和目前合约都让人满意就这样

噢 还有他的防守其实不差 至少已经是中上了 XD

对不起我看错了 看成overpay XDDD

yes yes of course he is

楼上能说得这么斩钉截铁?

CANO防守很不错的...

中南美球员的守备有它的独到之处...

重点是他没听到痛痛的消息吧:D

to TMAC 因为在洋基阿

overrated跟overpaid没关系阿

完全不懂1F在说什么..A-Rod overrated?? 别闹了..

我只是觉得说一个球员overrated，倒底评断标准在哪?

Cano防守不够好?? 我差点喷饭

Cano防守不好...真怀疑你有看过MLB吗?

Cano已经没得挑了 拜托

XDDDDD

UZR给Cano的生涯总分是-39.9，不知道是真的很差还怎样?

真得很好奇有这种砲瓦 防守也比CANO好的球员有几个0.0

是说也有很多外国球探认为以他身材最后要移防1B就是了

是因为捧过头吗?之前Utley打更好时好像没被这样评过

他UZR是负的 防守说不上好 但我没说他烂 要跳针也不是

这样

因为Utley 生涯UZR +88.5 找不到地方挑骨头

说cano防守不够好 是说瞎上身吗

我不是说他很好 不过uzr这数据的片面与谜样应该不用多说

同一个人同一年光是两个网站算出来的可能就有不小差距更不用说大幅变动是家常便饭 以他自己来说

06是-8.3 07变成+7.5(这可是前几名的成绩) 08又变-11.2

而且-39.9是生涯7年加起来的数字不是平均 这是因为生涯

7年中有2年加起来就达到-33 包括新人年

被说守备变好的近三年 数字都在-3以内

但就是不够好不是吗 有进步但是跟一些神级的还是有明

显差距 以Utley来说他没有一年是负的 Cano Range有点小

Utley:二垒很难吗 ( ￣ c￣)y▂ξ

所以我第一句就是说他现在"其实不差"."也算中上"这样

TZ给Cano分数倒是不错，不过近两年有退化迹象

除了range 综合看他现在传球顺畅度反应能力等等

Brandon Phillips刚好相反，UZR很好TZ很差

我自认为那句话是还可以 至于讨论中另有板友语气比较激

或者针对皮卡丘你那句 那就和我无关了 XD

当然就是因为Cano很优秀才拿Utley出来比 随便哪个人就

另外也只是补充一下abc那叙述 因为一开始唯一只丢一个-39.9 很容易看起来就马上觉得糟得非常可怕 XD

可以出来比Utley吗

这应该常有的事 像铁爷 TZ跟UZR就有点差

唔 你一开始说他不够好可能是爱深责切 不过反正对我来说

球队现在2B有这样的人站先发各方面我都很满意了就是了XD攻击数字年纪健康状态合约都没什么好挑剔的

防守数据很谜的,二垒砲贵一点我觉得可以接受

何况第二名第三名输第一名也很正常吧XD

Cano根本是强&帅的完美合体

看推文就知道一堆YESPN养出的球迷

都给你们说就好了啊

讲得他好烂的样子 事实上就整体而言 比CANO好的 也没几个-.-

综合全大联盟二垒手来说,Cano已经没啥好挑剔了

身体健康,有POWER,打击技巧也全面,防守中上...

除了选球:)

contact好，比较不爱选

虽然不爱选球至少打得不错啊...以2B来说Cano真的很不错了

不爱选但他也不是风扇阿~

如果还有选球就太全面了XD

没选球 打击率还是三成阿 至少不是盲打XD

以二垒砲来说算物有所值.再有选球眼的话就不是这种价钱

Cuz UZR is a piece of shit

葛雷诺: 如果挖地瓜都可以开HR, 选球要来干嘛?

Cano这种2B你还奢求什么?不然还要谁?又不是每队都有阿特力

Cano已经是目前大联盟最强的二垒手之一 至少是排行前三