http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/06/01/first-third-awards-2011-al-rookie-of-the-year/
First-third awards: 2011 AL Rookie of the Year
Matthew Pouliot
Jun 1, 2011, 6:00 PM EDT
2 Comments
Michael Pineda AP
Wilson Ramos, who started off in the AL with the Twins, was my choice as the
NL Rookie of the Year one-third of the way through the season. Now on to the
other league.
Just for the fun of it, we’ll look at the hitters first:
Mark Trumbo (1B Angels): .256/.306/.472, 10 HR, 28 RBI, 5 SB in 180 AB
J.P. Arencibia (C Blue Jays): .258/.319/.497, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 0 SB in 151 AB
Eric Hosmer (1B Royals): .283/.321/.515, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 2 SB in 99 AB
Hank Conger (C Angels): .233/.288/.369, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB in 103 AB
Elliot Johnson (INF Rays): .258/.306/.409, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 4 SB in 66 AB
Brent Morel (3B White Sox): .238/.256/.311, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB in 122 AB
It was a given that Arencibia would hit for power, but he’s managed a decent
enough OBP and he ranks as the top rookie position player to date. Trumbo is
on pace for 30 homers and 80 RBI, which would definitely get him some votes
if he can keep it up. Hosmer, though, is coming on quickly and projects as
the better player over the rest of the season.
Of course, it’s the pitching side that features most of the talent:
Michael Pineda (Mariners): 6-2, 2.42 ERA, 66/19 K/BB in 63.1 IP
Jeremy Hellickson (Rays): 6-3, 2.80 ERA, 46/27 K/BB in 64.1 IP
Zach Britton (Orioles): 5-3, 2.93 ERA, 38/24 K/BB in 70.2 IP
Tyson Ross (Athletics): 3-3, 2.75 ERA, 24/13 K/BB in 36 IP
Ivan Nova (Yankees): 4-3, 4.67 ERA, 27/24 K/BB in 54 IP
Kyle Drabek (Blue Jays): 3-3, 4.16 ERA, 42/42 K/BB in 62.2 IP
Tyler Chatwood (Angels): 3-2, 4.13 ERA, 27/32 K/BB in 56.2 IP
Jordan Walden (Angels): 0-1, 12 Sv, 3.20 ERA, 26/13 K/BB in 25.1 IP
Aaron Crow (Royals): 2-0, 1.33 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 27 IP
Vinnie Pestano (Indians): 1-0, 1.35 ERA, 25/7 K/BB in 20 IP
Tim Collins (Royals): 2-2, 2.73 ERA, 31/24 K/BB in 29.2 IP
Pineda, Hellickson and Britton rank 8th, 10th and 12th respecitively in the
AL in ERA.
And those three are pretty obviously the top candidates for the hardware. Here
’s how Baseball-Reference’s WAR rates the candidates:
Britton: 2.3
Pineda: 2.2
Crow: 1.4
Arencibia: 1.2
Hellickson: 1.2
Drabek: 1.1
Ross: 1.1
Pestano: 1.0
Collins: 0.8
Trumbo: 0.7
Walden: 0.7
Hosmer: 0.6
WAR doesn’t see Hellickson matching up with the other two, even though he
has a similar ERA. He probably has been luckier than the other two so far,
given that he doesn’t have Pineda’s strikeout rate or Britton’s groundball
rate. His .208 average against isn’t going to be sustainable unless he
starts striking out batters.
The schedules for the three starts have been similar. One would think Pineda
would have had it quite a bit easier than the other two while pitching in the
AL West, but the numbers don’t reflect that, at least not yet. As a result,
I am going to give Pineda the nod here. I think Hellickson might be the
favorite for the full year, since he’s the better bet to end up somewhere
around 200 innings. Britton is plenty good, too, but the starts against the
Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and Blue Jays figure to wear on his numbers as time
goes on.
AL Rookie of the Year
1. Pineda
2. Britton
3. Hellickson
激烈啊!!