Introducing David Price
介绍David Price
Well it didn't take too long for David Price, the Rays top prospect, to make
his debut. After being promoted from Triple-A Durham prior to this weekend's
series Price warmed up yet was not placed into either of yesterday's games in
part due to James Shields masterful performance. Today however Edwin Jackson
lasted two innings before being yanked leaving Price debuting against the
same team he faced in spring training when he faced Wilson Betemit, Shelly
Duncan, and Jason Lane and struck each of them out.
光芒的状元新秀David Price在升上大联盟后不久就得到登板机会。这个周末的系列赛之前
从3A升上来后，他就已经热身好了，不过因为James Shields的优异表现而没有在昨天的比
赛上场。然而今天Edwin Jackson在Price的大联盟初次登板前只撑了2局，Price登板面对
的就是春训已经交手过的洋基队，那时他对决并三振了Wilson Betemit、Shelly Duncan、
Jason Lane。
Price would get through parts of six innings on 87 pitches. I suppose we
should thank Joe Maddon for giving us a glimpse of what to expect from Price
and his velocity in a starter's role. 57 of those pitches were fastballs
while the other 30 are going to be classified by PitchFx as "cutters"
although in reality Price throws a slider and a change-up. Before we jump
into the data and graphs I wanted to share my impressions.
Price投了快6局87球。我觉得我们应该感谢Joe Maddon，他给了我们机会看见对Price
应该有什么期许还有他在先发时的惊人球速。87球中有57球是速球，其它的30球则被
PitchFx认为是切球，虽然实际上Price投的是滑球跟变速球。在我们跳到数据分析之前，
我想先分享一下我的对比赛的感想。
The fastball is the beginning and end of most at-bats. In fact Price's first
opponent, Xavier Nay, took a swing at his first pitch, a 95 miles per hour
heater, and promptly grounded to third baseman Evan Longoria. One pitch and
one out, Price's career started effortlessly. Robinson Cano would step into
the box and Price would face his first left-handed batter of the day. Price
hurled three straight fastballs, including a delightful 96.4 MPH pitch that
prompted a swing and miss, as Cano lined out to left fielder Eric Hinske.
速球是大多数打席的第一球和最后一球。事实上Price面对的第一个对手Xavier Nady
在挥击了第一颗95英里的火球，这球滚向了三垒手Evan Longoria的方向，一球就解决了
打者。Price以一种毫不费力的方式开始了他的大联盟生涯。接着下一棒Robinson Cano走
进了打击区，Price今天第一次面对左打。Price直接猛投了三颗速球，一颗更达到96.4英
里并且诱使Cano挥空，最后Cano击出了左外野方向的平飞球出局。
Next up was Pudge Rodriguez. Price immediately met the future hall of famer
with a 97.2 MPH fastball fouled off. Almost teasingly, Price slung his
slider, which registered at 89.5 and broke in to righties, Rodriguez swung
and missed, leaving him in an 0-2 count and giving Price the chance to record
his first strikeout and inning. Naturally Price went back to his heater and
Rodriguez chased it at 95.9.
下一个上来的是Pudge Rodriguez。Price一见面就送了未来的名人堂捕手一颗97.2的火球
，Pudge打成了界外。几乎是戏弄地，Price投了一颗89.5英里向右打移动的滑球，I-Rod
挥空，0-2落后，给了Price拿下第一次三振的机会。很自然地，Price又投出了速球，
95.9英里，I-Rod追打，挥棒落空。
Two things I noted:
A) How much of his velocity was due to being pumped up?
B) How much of the velocity would remain moving forward?
我注意到了2件事：
A)有多少球速是因刚上场体力充沛才那么快?
B)随着比赛的进行会剩下多少球速?
I'll save you my further attempts at being Len Kasper and skip to some
unorganized details.
我会省去一球一球播报的方式直接跳到一些未经组织的细节。
Price did give up two runs on three hits including a Derek Jeter homerun. I
am not sure if that homerun came on a slider or change. He could start in
five days and would be at least a league average third starter. The Alex
Rodriguez hit will show as a double, but the ball was a blooper that landed
near the side right field wall and bounced over. Price will throw his
fastball at any time against anyone. The reports and murmurs of control
issues will soon be gone; he seemed to be in control of his pitches quite
well. I really cannot wait until he takes a full-time starting job.
Price被击出3支安打、失了2分，其中包括了Derek Jeter的一支全垒打。我不确定那支
全垒打的那球是颗滑球还是变速球。他能在升上大联盟五天后先发，并且至少有联盟平均
的三号先发水准。A-Rod打了一支二垒安打，不过这球是个软弱的飞球，十分靠近右外野墙，
而且弹了出去，才形成一支二垒安打。Price不管在任何时候面对任何人都一定会选择投速
球。报告还有关于控球不好的议论会很快消声匿迹，他看起来能把投出的球控制得非常完
美。我真的等不及想看他成为全职先发了。
Okay, now let's get into the fancy stuff, first a fastball velocity chart:
好，让我们开始进入正题吧，首先是速球的球速表。
98-| ■ ■
| ■ ■ ■
v 96-|■■■■ ■■ ■■■ ■■
e | ■■ ■■ ■ ■■■■
l 94-| ■ ■■■ ■■■ ■■■
o | ■
c 92-| ■
i |
t 90-|
y |
88-| ■■ ■ ■
|
86-|
|_________________________________________________________
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Fastballs
画得有点烂 请见谅= =
Overall pretty impressive, although you can certainly see the downward trend
beginning at about the 30 fastball mark. Of course we're talking about going
from sitting around 96 on average to around 94 and some change. It appears
either Price made a conscious (or perhaps unconscious) effort to slow his
pitch down. That or it could simply be a misclassification, take your pick.
Sustaining good velocity is not going to be a concern for Price
总体来说令人印象深刻，虽然你可能会注意到从第30球后球速有开始下降的趋势。当然我
们是讨论从96英里到94英里还有一些变化。似乎是Price有意(或无意)让球速下降。这很
有可能只是误认，注意，维持良好的球速并不会是Price所需要担心的事。
Price's "cutter" sat at 87.09 on average and topped out at 91.1. We're
talking about mostly, if not all, sliders going at 87+. I did a quick search
on FanGraphs and immediately noticed Tim Lincecum sitting in similar ranges
for his slider and fastball combo. I took Lincecum's seasonal averages to
create this:
Price的"切球"平均是87.09英里，最高来到91.1英里。我们大多讨论的滑球，通常不会达
到87英里以上。我在FanGraphs快速的搜寻了一下，很快地我找到了Lincecum的速球和滑球
也在相似的范围内。我用Lincecum球季的平均数据打了下面的表格：
Pitcher FBv FBhb FBvb SLv SLhb SLhv
Price 94.75 3.44 6.90 87.09 -1.27 2.30
Lincecum 95.06 -3.33 11.04 85.01 1.92 1.69
The two distinct differences, outside of Lincecum's fastball having more
"up-break" are their arms of choice (which also explains why Lincecum's
fastball horizontal break is "negative" or inside to righties and why his
slider is "positive" or away from righties) and the fact that Price will not
be competing for the National League Cy Young anytime soon.
除了Lincecum的速球有较多的"up-break"之外，两个明显的差异是他们的惯用手不同。(这
也解释了为什么Lincecum的速球水平变化是"负"的，往右打者的内角移动，还有他的滑球
为什么是"正"的，往右打者的外角移动。)以及Price短期内还不会加入国联赛扬奖的角逐
之中。