COVID-19’S PAINFUL LESSON ABOUT STRATEGY AND POWER
美国要从防疫中吸取惨痛教训
原文：https://tinyurl.com/wavjcmw
译文：http://comment.cfisnet.com/2020/0403/1319129.html
作者：Joseph Nye
In 2017, President Donald Trump announced a new National Security Strategy
that focused on great-power competition with China and Russia. While the
plans also note the role of alliances and cooperation, the implementation has
not. Today, COVID-19 shows that the strategy is inadequate. Competition and
an “America First” approach is not enough to protect the United States.
Close cooperation with both allies and adversaries is also essential for
American security.
2017年，美国总统唐纳德 ‧ 川普及其同事们，制定了一项全新的国家安全战略，其重点
强调的是，与中俄展开所谓的大国竞争。虽然该计画也阐述了联盟和合作的作用，但在实
际的实践操作中，却没有得到丝毫的落实，以至于被完全的忽视。现阶段，美国对新型冠
状病毒防控的糟糕表现证明，上述这些策略的失败性和迟滞性。“战略竞争”和“美国优
先”的两大全球方针，目前甚至已经不足以保护美国本土的安全了。与盟国和对手开展有
针对性的密切合作，才是当前美国国家安全所应考虑的至关重要的问题。
Under the influence of the information revolution and globalization, world
politics is changing dramatically. Even if the United States prevails in the
traditional great-power competition, it cannot protect its security acting
alone. COVID-19 is not the only example. Global financial stability is vital
to U.S. prosperity, but Americans need the cooperation of others to ensure
it. And while trade wars have set back economic globalization, there is no
stopping the environmental globalization represented by pandemics and climate
change. In a world where borders are becoming more porous to everything from
drugs to infectious diseases to cyber terrorism, the United States must use
its soft power of attraction to develop networks and institutions that
address these new threats. For example, this administration proposed halving
the U.S. contribution to the World Health Organization’s budget — now we
need it more than ever.
在信息革命和经济全球化的影响下，世界政治正在发生著剧变。即使美国在大国的传统竞
争中获得了胜利，也不能保证自身的绝对安全。美国现阶段防疫的局面，并不是唯一的例
子。一直以来，金融稳定对美国和全球经济的繁荣至关重要，但必须认清和别无选择的是
，美国需要其他国家的合作和参与，才能够保证全球经济和金融系统的稳定。贸易战虽然
能够使经济全球化的组织力受挫，但它并没有能力去阻止和控制，以环境或卫生领域为代
表的其他全球化议题的展开，典型的例子就是大流行病和气候变化的问题。在一个从毒品
到传染病再到网络恐怖主义的世界里，美国必须在利用自身的软实力和尊重他国行为体软
实力的双重基础之上，来打造应对这些新威胁的体系和机制。例如，川普政府提议将美国
对世界卫生组织的预算捐款减半，无疑，现在的美国人比以往任何时候都更需要这笔钱。
A successful national security strategy should start with the fact that “
America First” means America has to lead efforts at cooperation. A classic
problem with public goods (like clean air, which all can share and from which
none can be excluded) is that if the largest consumer does not take the lead,
others will free-ride and the public goods will not be produced. As the
technology expert Richard Danzig summarizes the problem: Twenty-first century
technologies are global not just in their distribution, but also in their
consequences. Pathogens, AI systems, computer viruses, and radiation that
others may accidentally release could become as much our problem as theirs.
Agreed reporting systems, shared controls, common contingency plans, norms
and treaties must be pursued as a means of moderating our numerous mutual
risks. Tariffs and border walls cannot solve these problems. While American
leadership is essential because of the country’s global influence, success
will require the cooperation of others.
从传统意义上而言，一个成功的国家安全战略，的确应该从“国家优先”这一事实展开思
绪，但这也同时意味着，美国必须时刻把握，国际间所有的合作与努力动向。这无疑是不
切实际的。公共产品往往成为一切合作和努力的核心问题之一。(比如清洁的空气质量，
优越的卫生条件。人人都可以分享，没有哪个国家行为体可以被排除在外)。如果消费者
和生产者不能切实和积极地协调响应，就会产生频繁的搭便车行为，公共产品的生产和保
障，也会受到一定的影响。正如技术专家们所总结的那样：“在二十一世纪，技术分布呈
现全球性，技术后果也呈现全球性。病原体、人工智能系统、计算机病毒和其他辐射，可
能会像技术本身一样成为全球的问题。”——全球各国必须随时做好准备，制定灵活的措
施和达成长久的共识：共同应急、共同响应，共同控制、共同规范（自身的行为）和共同
履约，以减轻共同的风险。贸易关税和边境壁垒绝不是长久之计。尽管大国具有绝对的全
球影响力，但未来的成功离不开与其他国家的合作。
On transnational issues like COVID-19 and climate change, power becomes a
positive-sum game. It is not enough to think of American power over others.
We must also think in terms of power to accomplish joint goals, which
involves power with others. On many transnational issues, empowering others
helps us to accomplish our own goals. The United States benefits if China
improves its energy efficiency and emits less carbon dioxide, or improves its
public health systems. In this world, institutional networks and
connectedness are an important source of information and of national power,
and the most connected states are the most powerful. Washington has some
sixty treaty allies while China has few. Unfortunately, as Mira Rapp-Hooper
recently argued, the United States is squandering that power resource.
在新型冠状病毒和气候变化等跨国问题上，国际政治间的权力已成为一种正和博弈。仅仅
考虑美国相对于其他国家的实力是远远不够的。还必须要考虑的是，实现涉及权力和其他
权力因素的共同目标——适当赋予他人权力，可以帮助美国实现在许多跨国问题上的目标
。如果全球各相关国家，提高能源效率，减少二氧化碳排放，改善公共卫生系统，美国也
将会从中受益。在当今这个世界上，机制体系和信息联通是一切国家权力的重要来源，信
息联通最为密切的国家，往往是最为强大的那一个。美国目前大约有60个条约型盟友，但
不幸的是，美国近期防疫的表现，正在使自身的信誉下降，使这种资源流失。
In the past, the openness of the United States enhanced its capacity to build
networks, maintain institutions, and sustain alliances. But will that
openness and willingness to engage with the rest of the world prove
sustainable in the current populist mood of American domestic politics? Even
if the United States possesses more hard military and economic power than any
other country, it may fail to convert those resources into effective
influence on the global scene. Between the two world wars, America did not
and the result was disastrous.
在过去，美国的全球开放性增强了它建立体系、创新机制和保持联盟的能力。但是，在当
前，美国国内政治民粹主义的情绪驱动下，与世界其他国家行为体接触的开放性和意愿性
还会继续保持下去吗？即使目前美国比世界上其他任何国家拥有更强的军事和经济实力，
它也可能无法将这些资源转化为对全球局势的有效影响了。在两次世界大战之间，美国没
有参与国际事务，但结果却是灾难性的。
The key to America’s future security and prosperity is learning the
importance of “power with” as well as “power over” others. Every country
puts its interests first, but the important question is how broadly or
narrowly it defines those interests. This administration has shown an
inclination toward short-term, zero-sum, transactional interpretations, with
little attention to institutions and allies. “America First” is defined too
narrowly. It steps back from the long-term, enlightened self-interest that
marked the security strategy designed by FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower after
1945. The new threat to America’s security is not just from transnational
forces like COVID-19 and climate change, but from Americans’ domestic
failure to adjust their own attitudes to this new world. That is the painful
lesson that COVID-19 is teaching us.
国际间未来安全与繁荣的关键在于，需认识到“合作”和“凌驾”辩证关系的重要性。每
个国家都把自己的利益放在第一位，但重要的问题是，它在多大程度上（或在狭义上）能
够界定和把握这些利益，并管控自己的欲望。目前的情况是，本届美国政府更倾向于短期
的零和收益，很少关注体系和联盟的重要性。对“美国优先”的定义过于狭隘。回避了长
期且开明的利益观，标志着罗斯福、杜鲁门和艾森豪威尔在1945年前后制定的国家安全战
略开始走向湮灭。当前美国国家安全面临的新威胁，不仅来自于新冠病毒和气候变化等跨
国因素，更来自于目前美国国内未能适应和左右新世界的秩序和规则。这是美国要从新冠
病毒防疫中吸取的最为惨痛的教训之一。