标题: Only Venezuela can solve its problems –
meddling by outsiders isn’t the solution
(只有委内瑞拉自己能解决问题，外部介入不是解药)
新闻来源: 原文 https://goo.gl/D9wLX4
(括号内为我的翻译)
All crises are global, all solutions are local – and Venezuela is the latest
case in point. No sooner had the young pretender, Juan Guaido, declared
himself interim president last month, ostensibly supplanting the corrupt old
revolutionary, Nicolas Maduro, than the world piled in. The Trump
administration insisted all countries must “pick a side” and back the “
forces of freedom”. Russia denounced a US-backed “coup”. China, Latin
American neighbours, Britain and the EU all scrambled for position, in
accordance with their particular interests and prejudices.
(所有危机都是全球性的，所有解决方案都是在地的 。委内瑞拉就是最新的实例。就在上
个月，这位年轻的篡位者 Juan Guaido宣布自己为临时总统，在表面上取代了腐败的老革
命家Nicolas Maduro 后，全世界就介入了。川普政府坚持所有国家必须“选边站”并支
持“代表自由的力量”。俄罗斯谴责美国支持的“政变”。中国，拉丁美洲的邻国，英国
和欧盟都根据自己的特殊利益和偏见争夺立场。)
In the past week, this international tug-of-war over Venezuela’s future has
grown increasingly dangerous – and unhelpful – as protesters and security
forces face off on the streets and the political impasse deepens.
(在过去的一周里，这场关于委内瑞拉未来的国际拉锯战变得越来越危险 ，并且无益 。
抗议者和安全部队在街头对峙，政治僵局也在加深。)
John Bolton, the US national security adviser, is threatening “serious
consequences” (meaning military intervention) should Guaido be harmed or
opposition supporters attacked. Maduro warns that the US could face a second
Vietnam.
(美国国家安全顾问John Bolton正在威胁若Guaido受到伤害或反对派支持者遭到袭击的“
严重后果”（意味着军事干预）。而Maduro警告美国可能将面对第二个越战。)
Bolton, along with Mike Pence, the US vice-president, and Marco Rubio, a
rightwing Republican senator from Florida, are the prime movers in Washington
’s latest regime-change adventure. An Iraq war hawk and leading
neoconservative, Bolton has an ideological axe to grind. His updated “axis
of evil”, now Iraq and North Korea have supposedly been sorted, comprises
Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela (but he is still gunning for Iran).
(Bolton以及美国副总统Mike Pence和来自佛罗里达州的右翼共和党参议员Marco Rubio，
是华盛顿政权颠覆行动的主要推动者。作为一名伊拉克战争鹰派和新保守主义领导者，
Bolton有一种极强的、自私的自我意识形态。他最新的“邪恶轴心”纳入了 古巴，尼加
拉瓜和委内瑞拉。(也许伊拉克和朝鲜已被他重新归类，但他仍枪指伊朗。) )
Rubio speaks for rightwing Cuban-Americans who abhor the Caracas-Havana
alliance and hold sway in southern Florida, a key 2020 election battleground.
As for Trump, he is on record since 2017 as favouring a “military option”
in Venezuela. For him, this sudden ramping up is a welcome distraction from
his Mexico border wall defeat.
(Rubio代表右翼古巴裔美国人，他们憎恶卡拉卡斯 -哈瓦那联盟。他们在佛罗里达州南部
占据主导地位，而这是2020年的重要选举战场。至于川普，他自2017年以来一直偏好对委
内瑞拉的“军事选项”。对他来说，这场突发事件很好地分散了对他墨西哥边境建墙受挫
的注意力。)
Whatever Bolton says, Trump will not necessarily escalate. He has a record of
backing off when the going gets tough – witness his Syria troop withdrawal
plan. Foreign interventions are not Trump’s thing. And the fierce opposition
of his sinister chum, Vladimir Putin, will give him pause. Moscow is offering
to mediate, which, if it happened, would dent US prestige in its own “
backyard”. For Putin, Venezuela is Washington’s Ukraine. He would dearly
like to turn the tables and mete out a reciprocal humiliation.
(无论Bolton说什么，川普不必然会将事态升级。当事情变得艰难时，他有退缩的记录 –
请看他的叙利亚撤军计划。外部干预并不是川普的风格。来自他“阴险的好朋友”普京的
强烈反对将让他停下来。如果由莫斯科提出的斡旋发生的话，它将削弱美国在自己“后院
”的威望。对于普京来说，委内瑞拉是华盛顿的乌克兰。他非常乐意将情势反转为互相羞
辱的局面。)
Maduro says Trump covets Venezuela’s oil – and given last week’s US bid to
siphon off the state oil company’s revenues in the name of democracy, that
sounds plausible – but so, too, does Russia, whose extensive Venezuelan
interests also include arms sales.
(Maduro说，川普贪图委内瑞拉的石油。上周美国试图以民主的名义没收委国国有石油公
司的收入。这指责听起来似乎有道理 ，但俄罗斯也是如此，在委内瑞拉拥有广泛利益，
其中也包括军售。)
China’s sole concern is commercial stability, not regime legitimacy. A
parallel is Zimbabwe in 2017, where Beijing, its investments at stake,
straddled the fence until Robert Mugabe fell off.
(中国唯一关心的是商业稳定，而非政权合法性。如同2017年的津巴布韦，北京在面对投资
处于危险时，选择两边押宝直到Robert Mugabe垮台为止。)
Guaido’s big splash has caused widening ripples that relate only obliquely
to Venezuelans’ suffering. Britain normally follows the sensible practice of
recognising states, not particular governments. So the decision by Jeremy
Hunt, the foreign secretary, to recognise Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate
leader, when he has neither control of the state nor an alternative
government in place, looks rash.
( Guaido溅起了汹涌的涟漪，但这只造成了委内瑞拉人的苦难。英国通常遵循一种实用的
做法，认可国家而不是特定政府。因此，外交大臣 Jeremy Hunt决定将瓜伊多（Guaido）
视为委内瑞拉的合法领导人。当时他既没有控制国家，也没有替代政府。这个决定看起来
很轻率。)
Hunt’s decision can be explained by Brexit Britain’s pathetic hope to stay
in Trump’s good books. Likewise the EU, which set up a novel mechanism last
week to circumvent US sanctions on Iran, would rather support regime change
at arm’s length in Venezuela than risk further provoking Trump closer to
home. Europe, with its high-minded views on democracy and human rights, thus
finds itself in bed with some low-life partners, such as Brazil’s Jair
Bolsonaro.
(Hunt的决定可以解释为正在退欧英国将可怜的希望押注在川普上。同样，欧盟在上周建
立了一个新的机制，以规避美国对伊朗的制裁，因此宁愿支持委内瑞拉政变，而不是进一
步激怒川普对付欧洲。因此，对民主和人权有高尚看法的欧洲，却与巴西Jair Bolsonaro
等一些水平低下的同伴搅在一起。)
For the European left, including Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn, the “Bolivarian
socialist revolution” led by Maduro’s predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez,
and its close ties to Castro-era Cuba, remains a totemic cause celebre. The
apparent attempt to overturn it by a Yanqui-picked, middle-class political
neophyte has produced a viscerally negative reaction, with little thought for
the revolution’s failings.
(对于欧洲左翼，包括英国的Jeremy Corbyn而言，由Maduro的前任，已故的Hugo Chavez
所领导的“玻利瓦尔社会主义革命”，以及其与Castro时代古巴的密切关系，仍然是一个
图腾般的著名事件。对左派而言，这种不计后果，藉中产阶级政治新手来政变的明显企图
，内心是十分反感的。)
Likewise, Guaido’s usurpation of Maduro “the usurper” has been hailed as a
new dawn on the neoliberal, interventionist American right, buoyed last week
by the return of Elliott Abrams, a notorious 1980s cold warrior and
self-described “counter-revolutionary”, as Trump’s Venezuela envoy. This
meddling is further confusing a confused situation.
(同样，“篡位者”Guaido从Maduro夺权的事件被称为新自由主义、干涉主义的美国右翼
的新曙光。也由于80年代臭名昭著的冷战士和自称为“反革命”的Elliott Abrams在上周
作为川普的委内瑞拉特使回归，而使右翼受到鼓舞。这种干涉进一步混淆了已被混淆的情
况。)
Yet all last week’s international manoeuvring and geopolitical jockeying
have not changed the four basic alternatives facing Venezuelans, namely:
stick with Maduro and hope things somehow improve; risk an indigenous
military takeover of indefinite duration; negotiate an agreed, democratic
transition leading to free elections, as advocated by Guaido; or face
possible civil war and foreign intervention.
(然而，上周的国际谋略和地缘政治竞争，并没有改变委内瑞拉人民面临的四种基本选择
，即：(1) 继续支持Maduro，希望事情有所改善; (2)冒险让本国军队无限期接管政府;
(3)谈判达成一致的民主过渡，实施由Guaido所倡导的自由选举; (4)面临可能的内战和外
国干预。)
The choice seems obvious, but that does not mean it will happen. One thing is
certain. Any lasting solution, if and when it comes, will be local – as
history shows. In 1913, Woodrow Wilson grandly declared: “I am going to
teach the South American republics to elect good men.” Needless to say, he
didn’t, nor was it his business to try. Yet more than a century later, the
lesson must be re-learned: imposing solutions from outside does not work.
(选项似乎很明显，但这并不意味着它就是结局。有一点是肯定的。任何持久的
解决方案，无论何时何地，都将是在地的 。 正如历史所示。 1913年，美国总统
Woodrow Wilson高调地宣称：“我将教导南美的共和国们选出好人。”结果不用说，他没
有做到，也不干他的事。一个多世纪以后，我们必须重新吸取教训：从外部强加解决方案
是行不通的。)
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