※ [本文转录自 Gossiping 看板 #1V_53JLe ]
作者: MaoZeDong (毛泽东) 看板: Gossiping
标题: [爆卦] 英国医学杂志质疑辉瑞和莫得纳疫苗造假
时间: Mon Jan 11 21:21:20 2021
英国医学杂志（British Medical Journal，BMJ）是世界著名的四大综合性医学期刊之一
BMJ的副主编Peter Doshi质疑辉瑞和莫得纳的新冠疫苗实验数据造假，他的文章刊发在BMJ
的网站上：https://tinyurl.com/y62nggy4
懒人包：辉瑞和莫得纳的疫苗数据，没有计算上拥有新冠肺炎症状、但PCR（核酸）检测
呈阴性的病例，如果计算上这些疑似病例，那么防护力只有19%~29%，远低于辉瑞和莫得
纳宣称的90%以上。
Peter Doshi: Pfizer and Moderna’s “95% effective” vaccines—we need more
details and the raw data
Peter Doshi：辉瑞和莫得纳疫苗的“95%有效”——我们需要更多细节和原始数据
……
“Suspected covid-19”
疑似新冠症状
All attention has focused on the dramatic efficacy results: Pfizer reported
170 PCR confirmed covid-19 cases, split 8 to 162 between vaccine and placebo
groups. But these numbers were dwarfed by a category of disease called “su
spected covid-19”—those with symptomatic covid-19 that were not PCR confir
med. According to FDA’s report on Pfizer’s vaccine, there were “3410 tota
l cases of suspected, but unconfirmed covid-19 in the overall study populati
on, 1594 occurred in the vaccine group vs. 1816 in the placebo group.”
所有的注意力都集中在引人注目的疗效结果上：辉瑞公司报告了170例经PCR证实的新冠
病例，分别是疫苗组8例和安慰剂组162例。但是这些数字与“疑似新冠”的症状相矛盾，
即那些有新冠症状、但未经PCR确诊的疾病。根据FDA关于辉瑞疫苗的报告，在整个研究
人群中，共有3410例疑似但未确认的新冠病例，疫苗组有1594例，安慰剂组有1816例
With 20 times more suspected than confirmed cases, this category of disease
cannot be ignored simply because there was no positive PCR test result. Inde
ed this makes it all the more urgent to understand. A rough estimate of vacc
ine efficacy against developing covid-19 symptoms, with or without a positiv
e PCR test result, would be a relative risk reduction of 19% (see footnote)—
far below the 50% effectiveness threshold for authorization set by regulator
s. Even after removing cases occurring within 7 days of vaccination (409 on
Pfizer’s vaccine vs. 287 on placebo), which should include the majority of
symptoms due to short-term vaccine reactogenicity, vaccine efficacy remains
low: 29% (see footnote).
由于疑似病例比确诊病例多20倍，这类疾病不能仅仅因为没有阳性PCR检测结果而被忽
视。事实上，这使我们更加迫切地需要了解详情。粗略估计疫苗对发展中的新冠症状的
有效性，无论是否有阳性PCR检测结果，相对风险降低19%（见脚注），远远低于监管机
构规定的50%有效性阈值。即使排除了接种后7天内发生的病例（辉瑞公司疫苗409例，
安慰剂287例），其中应包括由于短期疫苗反应性引起的大部分症状，疫苗效力仍然很
低，只有29%（见脚注）。