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2.新闻来源︰ Washington Post
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作者：
傅泰林M. Taylor Fravel(知名中国问题专家)
史文Michael Swaine(知名中国问题专家)
芮效俭J. Stapleton Roy(前美国驻中国大使)
董云裳Susan Thorton(前国务院亚太事务代理助卿)
傅高义Ezra Feivel Vogel(知名亚洲议题专家)
Dear President Trump and members of Congress:
亲爱的川普总统与美国国会议员：
We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business
community, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have
focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned
about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we
believe does not serve American or global interests. Although we are very
troubled by Beijing’s recent behavior, which requires a strong response, we
also believe that many U.S. actions are contributing directly to the downward
spiral in relations.
我们是一群来自学术界、外交界、军事界及商业界的成员，绝大多数来自美国，
包括许多在自己的职业生涯中长期关注亚洲议题的从业人员。
我们深深关切恶化中的中美关系，并认为这不符合美国及全球的利益。
虽然我们对于北京近期的作为感到困扰，认为需要予以强力回应，
我们依然相信许多美国的应对作为，直接使中美关系陷入往下的漩涡。
The following seven propositions represent our collective views on China, the
problems in the U.S. approach to China and the basic elements of a more
effective U.S. policy. Our institutional affiliations are provided for
identification purposes only.
以下的七点建议，代表我们对中国的共同观点、对美国与中方交涉途径的问题点，
以及如何让美国对华政策更有效果的基本元素。至于列出我们曾或正在职的机构，
只是为了方便读者辨识我们的身份而已。
1. China’s troubling behavior in recent years — including its turn toward
greater domestic repression, increased state control over private firms,
failure to live up to several of its trade commitments, greater efforts to
control foreign opinion and more aggressive foreign policy — raises serious
challenges for the rest of the world. These challenges require a firm and
effective U.S. response, but the current approach to China is fundamentally
counterproductive.
第一，中国近年来令人困扰的行为，包括加强内部镇压、国家对私人企业的管制、
无法履行若干贸易承诺、加强对外国意见的管制，以及更有侵略性的外交政策等，
对世界各国造成了严肃的挑战。而这些挑战，需要美国有力且有效的回应，
但美国最近对华政策的途径在根本上就是反效果。
2. We do not believe that Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential
national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is
China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone. Although its
rapid economic and military growth has led Beijing toward a more assertive
international role, many Chinese officials and other elites know that a
moderate, pragmatic and genuinely cooperative approach with the West serves
China’s interests. Washington’s adversarial stance toward Beijing weakens
the influence of those voices in favor of assertive nationalists. With the
right balance of competition and cooperation, U.S. actions can strengthen
those Chinese leaders who want China to play a constructive role in world
affairs.
我们不相信北京是美国的经济敌人，或是本质上的国安威胁，需要美国全方位的围堵。
我们也不相信中国是一大块顽石，或其领导阶层的观点是僵化无法改变的。
虽然中国快速的经济与军事成长促使北京当局想成为更坚定自信的国际事务要角，
许多中国官员及其他菁英明了一个温和、务实与西方真诚合作的途径符合其利益。
华府方面对北京的敌意立场只会削弱这些菁英的影响力，使民族主义死硬派得利。
若能维持竞争与合作的平衡，美国的行动可以增加这些希望中国在世界事务上扮演更
有建设性角色的中国领袖的底气。
3. U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global
economy will damage the United States’ international role and reputation and
undermine the economic interests of all nations. U.S. opposition will not
prevent the continued expansion of the Chinese economy, a greater global
market share for Chinese companies and an increase in China’s role in world
affairs. Moreover, the United States cannot significantly slow China’s rise
without damaging itself. If the United States presses its allies to treat
China as an economic and political enemy, it will weaken its relations with
those allies and could end up isolating itself rather than Beijing.
美国试图把中国视为敌人、剥夺其在全球经济上的立足点，只会伤害美国的全球角色、
声誉，并损及所有国家的经济利益。美国的反对无法阻止中国经济的持续扩张、无法
阻止中国企业在世界市场的占比，也无法限制中国在全球事务上的角色。
此外，美国无法在不伤害自己的情况下，显著减缓中国的崛起。
如果美方压迫其盟邦将中国视为共同的经济与政治敌人，将损及与盟邦的关系，
甚至只会使自己、而不是北京，陷入孤立。
4. The fear that Beijing will replace the United States as the global leader
is exaggerated. Most other countries have no interest in such an outcome, and
it is not clear that Beijing itself sees this goal as necessary or feasible.
Moreover, a government intent on limiting the information and opportunities
available to its own citizens and harshly repressing its ethnic minorities
will not garner meaningful international support nor succeed in attracting
global talent. The best American response to these practices is to work with
our allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world in which
China is offered the opportunity to participate. Efforts to isolate China
will simply weaken those Chinese intent on developing a more humane and
tolerant society.
认为北京将取代美国成为全球领袖的恐惧是被夸大的。
多数国家不会从这样的结果得利，也没有明证显示北京视此目标为必要或可行的。
此外，一个意图限制其公民获取资讯与机会、激烈压制少数族群的政府，
不会获得实质意义上的国际支持，也无法吸引全球人才投靠。
美国对这些作为最好的回应方式，是与盟邦及伙伴合作，创造一个更开放与繁荣的世界，
使中国有机会参与其中。试图孤立中国，只会弱化中国发展更人性与宽容社会的努力。
5. Although China has set a goal of becoming a world-class military by
mid-century, it faces immense hurdles to operating as a globally dominant
military power. However, Beijing’s growing military capabilities have
already eroded the United States’ long-standing military preeminence in the
Western Pacific. The best way to respond to this is not to engage in an
open-ended arms race centered on offensive, deep-strike weapons and the
virtually impossible goal of reasserting full-spectrum U.S. dominance up to
China’s borders. A wiser policy is to work with allies to maintain
deterrence, emphasizing defensive-oriented, area denial capabilities,
resiliency and the ability to frustrate attacks on U.S. or allied territory,
while strengthening crisis-management efforts with Beijing.
虽然中国已经设下在本世纪中成为世界级军事强权的目标，
它很难以一个在全球取得宰制地位的军事强权的身份来运作。
然而，北京逐渐成长的军力确实已侵蚀美国长期在西太平洋的军力优势。
最好的回应方式不是与中国陷入无止境的军事竞赛，集中力量于中国国境周边，
建构一个攻势性、深度攻击式、在所有面向上都绝对优于中国的美军优势。
更聪明的政策是与盟邦合作，维持对中国的吓阻力量，强调防卫导向、区域拒止能力、
韧性与挫败中方对美国及其盟邦领土发动攻击的能力，
同时强化中美共同管控危机的能力。
6. Beijing is seeking to weaken the role of Western democratic norms within
the global order. But it is not seeking to overturn vital economic and other
components of that order from which China itself has benefited for decades.
Indeed, China’s engagement in the international system is essential to the
system’s survival and to effective action on common problems such as climate
change. The United States should encourage Chinese participation in new or
modified global regimes in which rising powers have a greater voice. A
zero-sum approach to China’s role would only encourage Beijing to either
disengage from the system or sponsor a divided global order that would be
damaging to Western interests.
北京正试图弱化西方民主政体在全球秩序下的角色。
但它并没有试图扭转这个秩序下，使其自身在过去数十年获益的经济及其他元素。
确实，中国参与国际体系的方式关系此一体系的生存，也关乎共同应对世界共同问题
(如气候变迁)的有效与否。美国应该鼓励中国参与全新或修改过后的国际制度，
使崛起中的强权能有更多的发言权。对中国国际角色的零合竞争态度，
只会鼓励北京当局或脱离此一系统，或资助另一套分立的世界秩序，损及西方的利益。
7. In conclusion, a successful U.S. approach to China must focus on creating
enduring coalitions with other countries in support of economic and security
objectives. It must be based on a realistic appraisal of Chinese perceptions,
interests, goals and behavior; an accurate match of U.S. and allied resources
with policy goals and interests; and a rededication of U.S. efforts to
strengthen its own capacity to serve as a model for others. Ultimately, the
United States’ interests are best served by restoring its ability to compete
effectively in a changing world and by working alongside other nations and
international organizations rather than by promoting a counterproductive
effort to undermine and contain China’s engagement with the world.
总而言之，一套成功的美国对华政策，必须专注于创造与其他国家的持久合作关系，
来达成美国设定的经济与安全目标。这套政策必须基于美国与盟邦资源对政策目标与
国家利益的准确投入，以及美国再度努力提升自己做为全球模范的尝试。
终极而论，美国恢复自身在一个变化万千世界中有效与他国竞争的能力，
同时与他国及国际组织共同努力，而非提倡一套损伤中国参与世界事务的反效果计画，
更符合美国的利益。
We believe that the large number of signers of this open letter clearly
indicates that there is no single Washington consensus endorsing an overall
adversarial stance toward China, as some believe exists.
我们相信，大多数签署此封公开信的成员，清楚指出：
没有一个名为“华府共识”、意图全面对抗中国的共同立场存在于世，
但有少部分成员相信此一共识确实存在。
签署成员(只列出最有名者)：
Jeffrey Bader-前国安会东亚事务资深主任
Jerome Cohen(孔杰荣)-国际法大师、马英九的老师
Jan Berris-中美关系全国委员会副会长
Ian Bremmer-欧亚集团总裁
Richard Bush(卜睿哲)-不用解释了吧
Robert Einhorn-前助理国务卿
Thomas Fingar(冯稼时)-前副国家情报总监
John Gannon-前国家情报委员会主席
Steven M. Goldstein-哈佛大学台湾工作坊主任
Philip H. Gordon-前总统特别助理、助理国务卿
Robert O. Keohane-普林斯顿大学政治学宗师
David M. Lampton-美国中国研究宗师、中美关系全国委员会前会长
Kenneth Lieberthal-前国安会亚洲事务资深主任
John McLaughlin-前CIA代理局长
Michael Nacht-前国防部助理部长
Joseph Nye-“软实力”大师、前国防部助理部长、前国家情报委员会主席
Stephen A. Orlins-中美关系全国委员会现任会长
Douglas Paal(包道格)-不用解释了吧
Thomas Pickering-前国务次卿、美国驻联合国大使
Shelley Rigger(任雪丽)-美国台湾议题专家
Charles S. Robb-前美国联邦参议院外交委员会亚太小组主席
David Shear(施大卫)-前国防部助理部长
James Steinberg-前国务次卿
Michael Szonyi(宋怡明)-哈佛大学费正清中心主任，接待过韩国瑜
Strobe Talbott-前国防部副部长